Can Nadal or Djokovic ever surpass Federer in rankings?

Question

For a few years now, Nadal has been in second spot. Will he ever be number one?

Answer 1

they will eventually surpass Federer. I expect Federer to win the 2008 Australian Open and the U.S. Open. Nadal will take over #1 in 2010. Federer will eventually slow down.

Answer 2

I don't think Nadal ever will, or not for long. His play style wears down his body. He has more injury problems at his young than most players with long careers. Nadal's career will be brilliant but short.

Djokovic will be the next #1. Not in 2008, but I think Federer has peaked. That doesn't mean he is going anywhere, but he can't keep winning 3 slams a year for much longer. By 2010, I think Djokovic will be #1, but Federer will still be winning slams, probably up to 17 or 18.

Answer 3

As of Nov. 19, Federer leads Nadal in the rankings by 1,445 points and Djokovic by 2,710 points. It is mathematically possible, of course, but if Federer stays healthy and motivated I don't see it happening soon.

For one thing, Nadal seems to run out of steam in the second half of the year and he is already having knee problems at age 21. He also has yet to prove that he can consistently beat Federer on anything except clay. Djokovic appeared really tired at the end of this year also. They will both have to be more consistent in order to gain on Federer in the rankings. It's hard to say at this point how well either of them will hold up physically in the next couple of years. Nadal especially seems to be taking a real pounding. Djokovic could replace him at number two.

James Blake made an astute observation when he said that Nadal expends a lot more energy to win points than Federer does, and that is very important. Also, Federer has started to attack the net more and has been extremely effective. He even played some serve-and-volley points (hooray!) in the Masters Cup. I was wondering when he was going to start doing more of this. Ending points sooner will save wear and tear on his body and I believe that this will keep him on top for at least a couple of years longer.

As far as the ranking points, it is true that Federer is mostly defending championship points, but it still will not be easy to catch him--for example, if Nadal were to beat him in the Wimbledon final next year, he would gain only 300 points because Federer would get 700 and he would get 1000--and he may be able to make up those points elsewhere. Add to that the fact that there is no guarantee that either one of them would make it to the finals.

Obviously, Federer's time at the top is going to end one day. It is inevitable, but I don't believe it is going to happen nearly as soon as some people think. After his performance at the Masters cup, I have to say that rumors of his demise have been greatly exaggerated.

Answer 4

Definitely. Federer is not getting any younger and the constant pressure to perform is starting to get to him, which is why this year was much worse than the previous ones. He currently has the most mental and physical pressure on him. He has to at least achieve the same results and several major slip ups will see him lose too many points to maintain his commanding lead.

I think Nadal has a good chance mainly because, barring any injuries, he's in better physical shape than Federrer, he also doesn't have as many titles to defend. He needs to bring more variety to his game, however, to be able to win more hardcourt titles. Nadal's record so far would have made him number one many times at different points in history, so I think he has what it takes to take over the top spot.

Djokovic is a good future potential, as long as he will be able to bounce back mentally. He had a great first half of the year and looked like he could push Federer and Nadal, but three straight set losses at the Masters Cup can have a damaging effect on him because he's not used to that type of pressure yet.

Answer 5

If Nadal is going to surpass Federer in rankings than it has to be done this season. With Nadal's grinding play style, he will not be able to sustain a very long career.

I think Djokovic has the better shot.

Answer 6

I think Djokovic is the one who is probably going to contest with Federer in rankings.

If Federer retires early after capturing the 4 grandslams a career dream of his in one year then Nadal and Djokovic stand a chance.

Otherwise 2010 - 2012 are going to be the most trying for his career.

Answer 7

Perhaps not Nadal but certainly Djokovic. Nadal's game remains heavily skewed towards the slower red stuff which requires much more power to play. No surprise that most red men donot last at the top: Gustavo, Ferrero, the list is endless. Compare this with the relative longevity of trad hard and grass players.

Answer 8

oh most definitely... both are a good 5-6 years younger than Fed and i think this year he showed some vincibility (i mean, he lost 9 frickin' times to 6 different players after losing about 7 times the past 2 years combined) and a lot of tennis' ranking points are tied up in defending your results in previous tournaments, so Federer has to make (and win) finals just to KEEP the rankings points he earned whereas nadal and particularly djorkavic can benefit by doing some damage in the slams while federer gets upset (he made all 4 slam finals this year so anything less than making the finals loses him a BUNCH of ranking points)

next year's race will be closer than this year's... plus there's the olympics in China so i'm sure federer will cut back on tournaments to make sure he's in good shape to challenge for a gold medal there...

Answer 9

I don't think Nadal can because he relies so much on his speed to create the shots he's able to hit. Nadal can not get any faster. Nadal had a great year and still was ranked #2. i don't think he'll ever be # 1. Djokovic has a great chance because he has an all court game and is willing to try different things. Nice serve & huge forehand, and the guy can think - he has a chance at being #1. I think we should be wondering about Ferrer and Nalbandian!!! If injury free Nalbandian and Ferrer should do well at Aussie Open.

Answer 10

Nadal is unfortunate to be playing in the same era as Federer. Any other then he would be number 1 for sure.
Nole, however needs to win prove himself by capturing a slam next year if he wants to be taken seriously b/c he def choked at the USO.

Answer 11

eventually they will pass Federer...maybe as soon as next year, but somehow i doubt it.

as long as federer is playing at the top of his game, i foresee him being #1 for at least a couple more years. but here is food for thought...the ATP has a weird system where each year a player has to defend his points...so if Federer loses at all at the Australian, Wimbledon, US Open...he will lose all of those points.

Nadal has to prove he can withstand a full season and prove he can win consistently on hard courts in order for him to be #1. He has such an aggressive style that will start wearing down his body....much like what happened to Jim Courier.