Why is the theory of evolution not predictive?

Answer 1

Because like life itself, it has to be lived while going forward, and then understood, while looking back at it...

Answer 2

Evolutionary theory is predictive. The example of antibiotics and the evolution of antibiotic resistance has already been mentioned (too bad we didn't listen, maybe my friend would still be alive). Evolutionary theory has also been used over and over again to predict responses to artificial selection by plant and animal breeders, to find species of medicinal and agricultural use via phylogenetic studies, for the most effective application of pesticides in disease control and agriculture, for predicting changes in virulence and the spread of disease causing agents with the use of vaccines or antiviral agents, in all kinds of biotechnology, etc.

Some responders have mentioned that evolution is not repeatable because of differing environmental conditions and chance mutations. And this is certainly true to an extent. However, much of evolution is repeatable under controlled laboratory conditions and with similar starting gene pools in populations and generalizations beyond that can be made. As a simple example, guppies from streams in Trinidad when raised for many generations without predators, evolved a series of predicted behavioral and life history changes. When maintained in the same enclosures, with predators, they re-evolved the anti-predator behaviors and life history traits. These were not changes within a single fish's life span, but gradual changes in the mean due to natural selection for different behaviors and life histories over many generations (i.e., genetic changes).

In fact, though few are even aware of it - evolutionary theory underpins much research in biology and medicine. If you are interested I will be teaching a class on this very topic in Bangkok (Thailand) soon.

Answer 3

The theory of evolution by natural selection may be said not to be predictive, but, evolution, the change in allele frequency over time in a population is the fact that natural selection explains. We can predict mutation rates for many organisms rather well because of evolution and theory. But, we can not foresee all mutational changes coupled with environmental pressures with any degree of clarity. Few sciences can be that sure of the future.

Answer 4

in step with hazard i'm no longer the suited suited guy or woman to reply to your question by way of fact i'm a Christian who believes in micro evolution and not macro evolution. With the form you published your question, i'm specific you're a student on the thought of evolution so no rely what I write, you will locate something to %. on. So as a substitute, if i'm able to positioned up a query back, might you enlighten a Christian like me who i for my area have not got all the solutions for you, what's the evolution concept and one million) how do you account for all the lacking links between many species 2) what's the real danger that it takes for random concerns in the universe to form amino acids to proteins to cells to organs to existence (sorry if that looks short, i understand there are various greater intermediate steps), and how has that danger been examined 3) how do you account for the evolution from an effortless (eg:) organ to a complicated one at the same time as without even one area the organ render ineffective (as an occasion: there isn't any linear courting between a monotone eye and a chromotone eye)? yet finally, i'm in basic terms questioning, what are the relevance to a Christian being knowledgeable or no longer makes a huge difference to something approximately Christianity? An toddler might have no thought what 2 + 2 equals; yet that does no longer imply the respond is something yet 4.

Answer 5

Evolutionary theory *is* predictive in the scientific sense, as Eri has pointed out. Numerous transitional or ancestral forms have been predicted, based on evolution. Also, many of the relationships between living things, hypothesized based on evolutionary theory, have been confirmed by DNA studies.

If you're looking for a prediction of the future, as in what sorts of mammals the future might support, that just happens over too long a time scale, and anyhow depends on unknown future conditions. It *does* predict the future on a shorter scale when dealing with viruses and bacteria, enabling us to anticipate how disease organisms are apt to change over time and in response to medical treatments.

Answer 6

It IS predictive. Take whale evolution for instance. The find of a skeleton in the Indus River Valley (between India and Pakistan) about 20 years ago predicted that this would be the place to find the transitional forms between a land animal and a sea animal - which was further predicted by the fossil itself. Also, since this this means that an animal that lived on land then lived in the ocean (successfully), it's middle ear must have changed structure between what we see in land and sea animals. And when the fossils were found - we were right.

So you see evolution has great predictive power. Otherwise, it wouldn't be of any use.

Answer 7

Of course it's predictive. Like many people you confuse natural Selection, which is a mechanism, with Evolution, which is a Theory.

As such, it predicts that species have changed, are changing and will continue to change.

What could be MORE predictive?

Answer 8

You are wrong. The theory of evolution predicted the emergence of bacteria that are resistant to antibiotics.

Long before they were discovered, the scientist Sir Almroth Edward Wright predicted that the use of antibiotics would create strains of resistant bacteria. Alexander Fleming (the discoverer of penicillin) later demonstrated in a laboratory that resistant strains evolve out of the misuse of antibiotics.

Answer 9

you're assuming that evolution has a goal in mind. that evolution tells some elegant story about the progression of "life" from the "lowly" amoeba to some "ultimate" organism [some would say humans are evolution's great success story..ha] such that we could predict what our future selves would look like. nonsense.

evolution is a "reaction" to environmental pressures; evolution does not anticipate what that environmental pressure would be. and if there is any goal in mind it is to make the most efficient, effective, "fit" organism for that "particular moment in time."

Answer 10

Dawn,

That is a very good question. In order to predict evolution we would have to be able to predict many other things, such as weather and other world changes.

Since evolution is essentially survival of the fittest, we would also need to be able to predict which species are best suited to survive.

In other words, evolution only works if it is unpredictable. If it were predictable then it could be altered and then it wouldn't truly be evolution.

One of the factors in evolution is 'people'. Many species that might have survived (were it not for people) are now extinct.

Many other species that might have become extinct are alive because of people (mankind).

Who could predict which species mankind would take a liking to and which ones mankind would choose not to support?

Answer 11

I'm not sure what you are asking - but if you are thinking that evolution does not exist because it is not ongoing, I can only tell you that I think you are wrong - we continue to evolve, we are evolving today and will continue to evolve tomorrow. Some of us who are more aware know enough to go with the flow. Those of us who are fearful fight it, to our own detriment.

If we have no ability to embrace evolution, it has no room for us. It is as simple (and as complicated) as that.