Does Ron Paul have a large enough base to gain the republican nomination?

Question

http://www.helium.com/tm/696672/white-house-american-voter

Answer 1

No. He is just a modern day Ross Perot. The only thing he will do is hurt the chances of a republican winning the presidency.

Answer 2

Of course he does. The polls are polls of 2004 GOP primary voters (was there any candidate in that primary whom a Ron Paul supporter would have voted for? wasn't it won easily by a warmonger who doubled the size of the Department of Education and instituted the largest new welfare program in 40 years?). This alone biases the polls and heavily deflates his numbers. And his numbers are still pretty good, at 5-7% at the moment.

Ron Paul's base is unlikely to be well-represented among the 6 or 7% of Republican voters who supported George W. Bush enough 4 years ago to go out and vote for him in a primary which he was going to win easily. By comparison, the Democrats had a 25% turnout to the primaries 4 years ago, so their polls are far more valid. In the typical portion that votes in the primaries, Ron Paul is far more likely to be supported (afterall, this portion of the base is less pro-Bush than that which is polled).

Then there's all of the Ron Paul supporters who are former Democrats or Independents or simply have never voted before. This is what tips him over the top.

Beyond that, there is the fact that all Ron Paul supporters are the type who will show up at the ballot box. These aren't your typical supporters who may or may not stay home. Ron Paul has the most intense support and wins virtually every self-selected poll by landslides (and the ballot boxes are self-selected).

He has a large enough base to win, as long as they all show up on election day (which is probably the closest thing to a sure-fire bet that you'll ever see).

Answer 3

The Republican Party has let a lot of people down (no thanks to the present administration), by becoming what it was supposed to not become, and that's a fiscally non-conservative party! So, is it any surprise that someone like Paul should join the Republican Party and try (operative word) to help rebuild the traditional ideology that it once stood for? IMHO, Paul could beat Hillary if it came down to just him and her, because he would likely have most of the Republicans support (begrudging or not) if they can not stand the thought of Hillary Clinton as president. And Ron Paul can do that because he would also have the votes of the Constitutionalists, the Libertarians, many of the Independents, the Green Party (Nader), the Dean supporters (presumably), the Perot supporters, those who supported Anderson way back when, many Gravel supporters...who else? Now, unless you support the so-called "war" in Iraq and think that we should start a war in Iran, then by all means vote for someone else and probably that candidate will lose because most Americans are fed up with the so-called "war" in Iraq and can clearly see the forest for the trees..

Answer 4

He is now at 6% nationally and at 7% in early primary states. Huckabee is in single digits again. Romney is over Rudy in NH. I dont trust any of the Front Runners. I think a lot of Republican Voters feel the same way. With a little less then 2 months to go anything can happen. I am Voting for Ron Paul because now the Republican party has stopped even paying lip service to the idea of cutting government spending. We need a President who will take a stand against the current special intrest lobbyist machines . Ron Paul has voted against every unbalanced budget congress has voted on as president he would Veto any unbalnced budget congress sent to him. That is the kind of Person we need in our Nations Highest Office .............a good Paul article below

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,252847,00.html

He also has been invited to Talk address the Republican Chiefs of Staffs Association on Nov 15th which is really big. He can gain a large enough base quickly with his message and principles.

Answer 5

Yes, he does. His lack of national name recognition has been the biggest hurdle, but he is quickly gaining ground there because of the efforts of his meetup groups throughout the country. I think that his fund-raising shows that the grassroots strategy is working - Ron Paul's fund-raising continues to increase each quarter. It's doubled from Q2 to Q3 and it looks like it'll double again from Q3 to Q4. Now the biggest question is will his campaign have enough time before the voting starts - we'll get the answer by Super Tuesday, February 5th.

By the way, I know many of his detractors point to his national polling numbers while a lot his supporters point to his straw poll wins. I don't put a lot of stock in the national polls or in the straw polls. I prefer to examine all of the candidates and pick someone who lines up best with my own views. From there, just let the primaries of Iowa, New Hampshire, and Super Tuesday take place and see how the actual voting pans out.

Answer 6

I checked the betting odds of him winning and he has worse odds than Gingrich (not even running). That sounds pretty bad to me. They do have him 5th if you throw out Newt. Better than I would have thought.

Answer 7

I think even if Ron had a chance.
The dems will lose more votes to him than the republicans.

for the mear reason he is against the war Billary is not.
neither him or billary will get the nod..

Mike...

Answer 8

No. It's amusing how the media tries to build this guy up; for example, harping on how much money Mr. Paul has raised. Money helps, but the candidate with the most money does not necessarily win. Just ask Howard Dean.

Answer 9

no, he doesn't..a thousand times over, no...no more than dennis kusinich has a chance at the democratic nomination...why do paul supporters act as though this reality is unbelievable and unthinkable??? the answer to that question is one of the many reasons that ron paul doesn't stand a chance...

Answer 10

I'm trying hard as heck to make that happen.