Are we living in a fantasy about oil supplies?

Question

Lets face it - we have a finite supply of oil. There probably aren't going to be more Ghawars to be discovered.

We are going to run out of oil in about 25 years - less if nations like China and India continue to grow in use to the point that they emulate nations like the US.

Oil is so very vital to our society. If human civilization were a body, then oil would be its lifeblood. 95% of all transportation is oil based. The plastic industry is dependent on oil. Products like adhesives, explosives, pesticides, and more than I bother to keep track of come from this black liquid.

All of this of course contributes to global warming, but I am not going to go on about that here ... coal is more polluting, and so is natural gas (methane is released into the atmosphere during extraction)

Why does the world seem so ignorant on this reality? If we run out of oil, then it could represent the end of modern civilization, unless we seek alternatives ASAP. Why are we so foolish?

Answer 1

You are absolutely right. Some people think that world oil production has already peaked, and certainly it will peak in at most a very few decades.

The oil crisis might be delayed by extracting oil from tar sands in Canada, which are said to contain more oil than the Arabian Peninsula. Until now, it has not been worthwhile to extract it, but with oil pushing $100 a barrel it certainly is.

What I do not understand is why the United States lacks the courage to slap a dollar a gallon tax on oil products. This would still be cheap compared with Europe, and would solve the deficit problem while we are at it.

I also agree that, in the end, global warming is a more serious problem. Possible answers include conservation, nuclear energy, and burying the carbon dioxide in old oil wells. The oil and coal companies keep on talking about this last possibility, but chickened out of actually doing anything about it.

Answer 2

When reality is too awful to think about, most people prefer to live in denial. They just assume somebody will find a new giant oil field, or like our friend tyrefitter, assume somebody will find a magical way to make fuels and plastics from something else which is more plentiful and cheaper. It's happened before so many times that everybody just expects it.

The world was in danger of running out of food a hundred years ago, but the agricultural revolution increased productivity 10 fold in the first half of the 20th century. Our rivers and lakes were dying from pollution 50 years ago, but technology gave us ways to purify waste water and reverse the trend. Many places now are running out of fresh water, but recycling and desalinating technology are filling the reservoirs.

We tend to take technology for granted, and it's hard to argue that technology won't save us this time. Maybe it will, but it's hard to see how it will happen. We also tend to wait until there is an obvious crisis before taking serious steps to correct a problem, and the crisis isn't obvious enough yet.

Answer 3

There are many reasons. Among them are:

1. Because influential people are making big money with oil.
2. Because there is currently no alternative that could be rolled out quickly and cheaply and without replacement of all the oil-centric infrastructure that we have in the world.
3. Because everyone in this debate has someone with a PhD in their back pocket who will find some data to support whatever crazy idea their team is proposing, while simultaneously trashing (or ignoring) what the other side is saying.

I'm a little cynical about the whole thing, if you can't tell. ;)

Answer 4

This is exactly why we need to begin to manufacture oil from biomass as well as the trash being dumped in landfills. Two problems can be resolved by doing this-all the energy humans can be manufactured and polution can be reduced. The air and water as well as the land would be a lot cleaner and oil supplies would be secure, plentiful and low cost. It really makes sense to do this now that oil is $90 a barrel and making it can be done for $25 a barrel or so.

Answer 5

I agree, we have been living in a fantasy world with regards to oil. I was listening to a talk radio program not too long ago and a man who seemed to be very knowledgeable on the subject stated that the US has the ability to totally take care of itself without any assistance from other nations. That is feeding ourselves, heating our homes, making our own clothing, etc. He said the only fly in the ointment, so to speak, was our energy usage. He said that the oil that we produce in this country would be plenty to make all of our plastics, etc. without having to go outside the US, if and that is a big IF, we could find alternative fuel sources to run our autos. If we could get the Big Oil lobbyists out of Washington and out of the pockets of our representatives, alternative fuels might be in our immediate future.

Answer 6

We can map the human genome, land a man upon the moon but we can't synthesise an alternative to petrol?

Who are you kidding? It's about MONEY. They tell us that fuel is running out so they can TAX us more for the fuel we need....

I ain't stupid.

Answer 7

well oil is not controlled by the govt; its controlled by capitalists and entreprenuers. their job is to make money for their stockholders. they are not public officials answerable to the public but rather hired pros answerable to the company. if they try to do anything but make money theyre gone and they know it. in places like opec where the govt does control the oil there is the problem of agenda. its just not their agenda to do wonderful things for planet earth; their agenda is to make money and sometimes they do so by cutting back on the oil supply just to intentionally drive up its price. its not about ability. its about control and agenda

Answer 8

I agree, but there's not much we can do.