Can Greg Maddux win 400 games?

Question

347 wins so 53 wins divided by 3 1/2? I mean he's barely 41, and guys like Roger and Randy and even David Wells seemed to get better past their prime. Is it realistic?

Answer 1

I strongly think that he has a strong chance to, as he's still going strong... And yes, strong is my word of the day!

Answer 2

He needs 53 wins to reach 400, and he's been getting about 15 a season, so that's three and a half, four typical seasons (not factoring in some predictable decline), or three really good seasons (17 per puts him at 398 in three).

He turns 42 in April, so he'd be looking at 44 earliest, 45 more likely, 46 if he starts slipping. It's a lot to hope for, and it's not the sort of milestone he could sneak up on, so the media frenzy (which can be managed, but is a nuisance) would be pervasive.

I think he has a better chance at it than Clemens, and I do think Clemens could do it, too. I also think a more realistic mark is 374, which would put either of them in third place all-time.

Bill James worked out a formula, which used to be called The Favorite Toy (now it's something mundane, the Career Projection IIRC), that projected probabilities for a given player to reach a given milestone. I won't delve into the specifics, anyone interested can search it out easily, but it factors in age, recent seasons, and how far to go, with some special conditions for very senior players (he developed it back in the 1980s, when 40+ players were much rarer) and to ensure that no one can have a >100% chance (actually, 97% is the built-in cutoff) when a milestone is imminent, because such predictions are silly.

So, for Maddux to reach 400 wins, the FT prediction is...

(Chipmaker toggles over the Excel for a bit...)

...back. Okay, Maddux is sufficiently rich in years that FT thinks he'll only play 1.5 more seasons (that's one of the cutoffs). So I futzed a bit, extending his remaining career.

Maddux with 1.5 more seasons == zero chance
2 seasons == 3%
2.5 seasons == 17%
3 seasons == 30%
3.5 seasons == 44%
4 seasons == 57%

Don't read too much into these numbers; FT does NOT tell us that Maddux with four seasons has 57 chances in 100 to reach 400, as in real terms that is meaningless. Think of it more like "given 100 Madduxes, 57 will likely reach 400 wins". It's a little better than one in two, but it still isn't very good.

The percentages shift every season based upon what the most recent season delivered (if he wins 16 in 2008, he moves up to a 32% chance with two seasons left). In real life, he's got one chance at it, but the longer he pitches, the more probable the 400th win becomes.

FT also has a "career projection" companion formula, so here are the results, projecting from real-life, 41 year old, 2007 Greg Maddux:

Seasons left // total wins
1.5 - 368
2 - 375
2.5 - 382
3 - 390
3.5 - 397
4 - 404

Remember, 400 is asking a lot for Maddux (heck, so is asking 374), but it is feasible. Hey, I'd love to see a 400 game winner in my lifetime.

Answer 3

Can he ..yes..probably..no. As long as he is effective he will pitch but age takes a few miles an hour off his fastball, things ache a little more, and Maddox is a smart man, he will pitch until he feels he isnt effective and he doesn twant to go out as a 6-12 guy with a 5.5 ERA. He does have a realistic shot if he has a couple of good yrs left in him to become the NL all time winner with 374 over Alexander and Mathewson, but that will be iffy also. Best thing to say is that Maddox is one of the best pitchers in baseball history, and no matter what happens in the next couple of yrs, no one will be able to say any different

Answer 4

i started thinking about this a few years ago. i think its realistic based on the type of pitcher he is. he's not a power guy which means he could probally go a few more years. he's basically a better, right handed version of jamie moyer, and if he pitches as long as moyer then i would say its a done deal. a problem, though, is that he is a 6 inning pitcher these days, which means he's going to have to rely on his bullpen to get to 400 wins. if clemens had had any bullpen at all in houston then he would be closer to 400 wins than 350.

Answer 5

I think a lot depends on the lineup behind him.

The ERA tends to go up later in life, too. So a solid lineup that produces.

I say yes, though, because he is a great pitcher in a league that does not have great pitching . . . .

I hope he does.

(I count him among those I have been lucky to see: Ryan, Ozzie, Jackson, Schmidt, Henderson . . . .)

Answer 6

If he were still being given the same strike zone he got in the mid 1990s, I'd say 100% yes.

Now the question isn't really can he, but WILL he? I can't see him pulling a Clemens -- I'm retired, no I'm not, yes I am, I dunno, okay I'll play another year.

If he plays, he can. If he plays, it may take 4 years or so, considering the injury thing.

Answer 7

his body wont allow him...he isnt built like clemens...look at johnson who is trying to stay in baseball...he looks horrible, needing surgery every oter month. maddux will go out on top, he wont aloow himself to go out like Glavine or Johnon, or even Clemens for that matter. He will prob retire after this season where he will prob get like 13-15 wins...for argument sake, say he gets 13...that gves him 360 wins...he would need to pitch like 4 years after that (10 or more wins a season)...not gonna happen although it is fun to think about. He isnt going to be a 45 yr old pitcher that is effective.

Answer 8

heck ya he could get his 400 win the way he always makes the strikes zone with his basicly 100% accurcy also with his opposite curve ball, his sinkers and his breakingball!

Answer 9

It is realistic and possible. He is out on the west coast in a terrible league. The downside is at his age he will be inconsistent and is injury prone.

Answer 10

u know what u never know he just might and if he does he will probably be known as the one of th 3 pitchers of alltme