If the weatherman cant get a 5 day forecast right?

Question

what makes you think they can predict what is going to happen in 30 years?

Answer 1

My old man uses the expression, "You lie like the weatherman.".

I think that just about sums it up.

Here's a freebie for you
http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;_ylt=At1ZeO5G0EoAZ2puzfgat7fty6IX;_ylv=3?qid=20071106165559AA8fslD

Answer 2

For reasons some have stated and many others, regarding accuracy you can only speak in terms of average errors and their variance. I once forecast min/max temperatures for San Juan, PR for the next 5 days and was off by a total of only 10° - for McCall, ID was off by a total of 90° (because of very cold clear nights). At most locations in the U.S., a good temperature forecast will average about 2-3° error (for each) as stated in the question for days 1-2, increasing to around 4-7° by day 5. It is difficult to likewise quantify the accuracy of precipitation forecasts. People get upset at a forecast of 4 inches of snow when it snows 9 - much more so than vice-versa. Yet they don't care so much if you forecast a quarter inch of rain and an inch occurs, so long as the rain does. That is understandable, because you don't have to shovel an inch of rain ;), but from a statistical perspective the rain forecast was a bit worse. Precipitation forecasts are best expressed in terms of probability - the accuracy generally defined by the root mean square error. I would guess a yes or no forecast should be right about 90% of the time for the next day, decreasing to around 60-70% for day 5. Some weather patterns are very predictable - such as a well-defined cold front forecast to pass a location sometime in the next several days. You know it'll be warm ahead of it and cold behind it, probably with showers along the front. Then it becomes a question of timing the front. Others are very unpredictable. Unexpected clouds or clearing can make a forecast wrong by 10°, a storm track difference of 200 miles can make the difference between no snow and 10 inches, etc.

Answer 3

No human can predict anything. Even a good weather person (who I plan on being) gets the weather wrong because it is nature. It is natural for things to happen out of the sudden and there is nothing the weather people can do to prevent that, they just predict what they see, and if it changes then they can't help it.

I get what you're saying about 30 years from now and everything I just said comes to play in that. It is a prediction. It doesn't mean it is going to happen or isn't. Things change. It is the cycle of the earth. Scientists study it and see what may happen if you get what I'm saying.

Answer 4

Yahoo weather (and several others) can't even come close to my current temp where I live. Often it might be 30F and those online weather services will give it as 60F. How's that for instant global warming?

The big question is, "Will we ever be able to believe anything ever again?" Information age my foot, should have called it the b*llsh*t age.....lol

Answer 5

The weathermen aren't accurate, I go to my next door neighbor and ask how his knee feels.

Answer 6

No one can

Answer 7

Some people will believe anyhting.

Answer 8

beats me but 1 thing its the one job u can be wrong and not get fired from..

Answer 9

They don't really care - they're just in it for the money.

Answer 10

And we have a winner!