How much support does Ron Paul actually have?

Question

Now I live in Canada so i dont plan on voting for the 2008 election anytime soon, but one question still rings through my mind. How much support does Ron Paul actually have? I keep getting really mixed messages here, there are several polls that claim Ron Paul has little if any support, but at the same time I see his name all over the net, all over yahoo, videosift, youtube, everywhere.

Answer 1

There are actually several different questions that need to be asked.

First, how much support does he have? The scientific polls seem to suggest less than 5% of likely Republican voters. However, as likely to vote in the Republican primary is based on past history, that percentage ignores any "new" voters. Based on general election polls, there is about 3-5% of the overall population that tends toward the conservative version of the Libertarian position (i.e. something similar to Ron Paul). That is about 8 million voters. However, typical national vote in the Republican primaries are about 40 million voters. That would imply that if all of the potential Ron Paul supporters actually turned out, they could get up to 20-25%.

Second, how much of his support consists of people registered to vote in the Republican Primary? To the extent that a sizable portion of Representative Paul's supporters may be registered as Democrats, Greens, Libertarians, Independents, or other parties, they will not be able to vote for him in the largest states which have closed primaries.

Third, how well organized are his supporters in the caucus states? Under the rules of the Republican Party, in states like Iowa, even more important than knowing who you are supporting for president, is knowing who you are supporting to be a delegate to the next level. If you have a tight group, you can come in second in the straw vote and still get all the delegates out of a precinct.

Fourth, how many of his supporters know enough about Ron Paul to not change their minds if and when he gets "swift boated"? Ron Paul has been an arch-Libertarian for 30 years and has made a lot of statements on tape on a lot of issues. It is unclear how much of his support comes from opposition to the war and how many support the rest of his agenda.

Fifth, are any of these supporters intending to put forth candidates on the rest of the ticket? If I am the Republican leadership, I am confident that, if Ron Paul did become a leading candidate (sort of like Pat Buchanan in 1996), once a couple of the major candidates drop out, the threat of Ron Paul winning would disappear. What would worry the Republican leadership more is the possibility of having to fight 435 Congressional Primaries and 35 Senate Primaries (especially for the seats that we currently hold). With the exception of Ron Paul, almost every other Republican in Congress (and all of the other presidential candidates) generally support the likely platform of the Republican Party. If I am the Republican national leadership, a one person revolution that does not make it to the next fifth of November does not worry me. Ron Paul going viral and multiplying into little Ron Paul's contesting every seat would.

Having said all that, the Libertarian position (both on the right and the left) tends to be strongest among those most likely to be comfortable with computer use. So the internet does tend to overstate his support among those who only use the computer for e-mail or research.

Answer 2

regardless of if or no longer Ron Paul has of venture to win, the shown fact that we are on right here discussing him shows that his candidacy has been a sturdy difficulty for the political debate. it somewhat is is the initiating of a flow that is going to have an excellent better effect interior the destiny. individuals are bored to death with the present state of issues, and Ron Paul represents a real exchange. The Vegas oddsmakers have him raising $6 million on 12/sixteen, which might provide him the two greatest GOP fundraising days, showing that he's clearly better than a perimeter long shot candidate. What each and all of the naysayers forget is that the poll numbers on Paul, that are increasing, reflect basically electorate who've voted in previous GOP primaries, no longer the untold kind of individuals who will the two register for the 1st time as a Republican or swap (I did, from the Libertarian party) to vote interior the regular. i think of assorted people who're going to be shocked at what is going down in NH, the place mainstream analysts have estimated he gets a great ingredient to the vote (doubtlessly 15%+). regardless of if he does not win, he will make some noise.

Answer 3

Just one faction of Ron Paul. He has over 1000 meetup groups. Which contain approx 20-30 members that are pushing for Ron Paul to become president. They are in essence the campaign supporters. His 4.2 million in donations by regular American people , no special interests or corporations as all the rest accept. He has won every online and phone text voting on the debates. America is waking up. If people havent heard of him they are removed from reality. They must be on a diet of Tv news propaganda only and that is a sad affair. He has also has more first place wins in the straw polls across america than any other.

Answer 4

well yesterday on Guy Fawkes day he had about 4.3 million dollars worth of support. All raised in 24 hours. It had to come from somewhere, though some retards like pusher-ho will come around saying its all bots and spam. Yeah, if you have a bot capable of generating 4 million dollars a day you're not worried about politics.

Answer 5

I support Ron Paul, especially as an independent (he won't win either party's nomination.) I support him (but I won't vote for him) because he will only take away votes from Hillary Clinton just like that little GM executive nutcase (H. Ross Parot) did to Bush Senior back in 1992. It should insure a Republican win in the general election.

Answer 6

There is a group of passionate young people wanting change in america, I think they are less that 5 percent of the population.

but the passion drives them to do anything they can to help ron,,

he is largely ignored here in the southeast...

i have asked many people and they had never heard his name...

Answer 7

Let's just say quite a few. The people are playing this one smart. Awesome!!!

Answer 8

He has a tremendous amount of support!
These are people that are talking to people, handing out flyer's, and supporting him with financial contributions.

However I would multiply these numbers by at least 50 who support him but don't really like to belong to any organized groups.

http://ronpaul.meetup.com/about/

Please compare him to the other candidates.

http://www.meetup.com/topics/polact/cand/pres/
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Answer 9

i guess we wont really know till the primaries are over.