Asteroid 99942 Apophis?

Question

How likely is it that we get hit by it in 2036? What are your thoughts on this?

Answer 1

A little research would tell you a lot.

Initial observations indicated a probability of up to 2.7% that it would strike the Earth in 2029.
Additional observations eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029.
However there remained a possibility that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a "gravitational keyhole" (a region in space no more than about 400 meters across) that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036.
Additional observations of the trajectory of Apophis revealed the "keyhole" would likely be missed.
As of October 19, 2006, the impact probability for April 13, 2036, is estimated at 1 in 45,000. An additional impact date in 2037 has been identified; however, the impact probability for that encounter is 1 in 12.3 million.

Answer 2

The probability is very low, but not zero. It all depends on how much we know about it's orbit and what happens when it passes about 18,600 miles from the Earth in 2029. If it passes through one of several very small regions of space called "keyholes," Earth's gravity will re-direct Apophis back to us in 2036 for a certain impact. If it does strike the Earth, it can kill hundreds of millions of people if it strikes an ocean and starts mega-tsunamis. The asteroid is large enough to strike the ground, even under the sea bed at full cosmic velocity, so no matter where it lands, if it lands, there will be a crater at least two or three miles across. It's not likely to strike anytime soon, but it does bear close watching so a future impact can be pre-empted long in advance.

Answer 3

In 2004 several astronomers calculated the odds that Apophis would strike the Earth in the year 2029 as 1:37. But within 24 hours additional trajectory data was added and the calculation was revised to almost nil in 2029 and only a 1:45,000 chance in 2036. 1:45,000 isn't a very significant probability.

Answer 4

My 'thoughts' are not important.
The calculations are.
Probability is so close to zero.
In June 2006, the probability was still listed as 1/45,000 that it could hit Earth 'one day' (not necessarily in 2036).
The fun part is that the 2036 probable date was given as a Friday the 13th!

Now, the probability for 2036 is zero and the probability for 2037 (IF it passes through a region called 'the keyhole' in 2036) is downgraded to 1 in 12 million. (It might even be less by now).

Still you will continue to hear about it, because some people would like to place a probe on it when it passes close to us. To do that requires money and one easy way to get money is to play on people's fears.

Answer 5

What chances? They are close to 0. All this talk is like getting all excited about winning the lottery. Then the first number comes in and all the excitement is gone.

Do you know someone who won the lottery? I for sure don't. This is exactly the same thing. And if you look at it historically, the last time we won was 65 million years ago. Actually, the dinosaurs won, but we inherited the jackpot.

One in 65 million... just like the lottery.

:-))

Answer 6

it relatively is not expected to crash into the earth in 2029. the probabilities of effect in 2036 are expected at a million in 40 5,000 and those odds will in all danger extend as greater observations are made. to quote from NASA's close to Earth merchandise application internet site: "employing standards stepped forward in this study, new measurements obtainable in 2013 (if no longer 2011) will in all danger verify that in the time of 2036 Apophis will quietly bypass greater advantageous than 40 9 million km (30.5 million miles; 0.32 AU) from Earth on Easter Sunday of that year (April 13)".

Answer 7

did you know 2+2=8?

Answer 8

we wont the human race will be around for at least one billion years