Nuclear Middle East?

Question

Here is how I believe it will happen.

1. We already know Israel has about 300 nuclear weapons.
2. We also know that Pakistan has about 50 nuclear weapons
3. I believe that Iran will acquire nuclear weapons
4. Then, I believe the US will give nuclear power to the Saudis.
5. Dubai will also basically buy the nuclear technology and develop nuclear weapons.
6. I believe Iran will share the nuclear secrets with Iraq and Iraq in the future will be able to have nuclear weapons
7. I believe that Egypt will acquire nuclear technology either from Saudi Arabia or from Pakistan or from the US
8. I believe Iran will share nuclear secrets with Syria and Syria will develop nuclear weapons
9. Between 40 and 50 years from now, when Hezbollah has a very large impact on Lebanon's government, Hezbollah will also be given nuclear weapons.
10. And during this time, many new terrorist groups will be created as revolutions in the Middle East come and go.

What do you think of this theory?

The thing is, I have no idea of Russia's role in this, or the US's role in this

Actually, Khan himself was shut down, and a big portion of nuclear material was found, but the organization still runs supposedly from Africa and pieces of Dubai from what I know. The remnants of Khan's organization resurfaced a few times since Khan was found to be ilegally selling nuclear technology. Actually, about 10 years ago, there was a meeting between Khan's organization and Al Zawahiri of Al Qaeda, fortunately no deal was ever reached.

Thanks for mentioning Libya, I had forgotten that Khan had sold nuclear technology to them also, but they disbanded their quest.

And yes, from recent events, it seems like Putin is just starting his "game" with the United States by giving Iran more time and Iran some nuclear power through the use of a power plant

In fact, dealing with Khan, the IAEA has stated that they have no idea how much nuclear material was sold. Iran actually bought a lot of nuclear material from Khan in the late 80s, mid 90s.

Israel attacking Iran could ultimately lead to the destruction of Israel with Radical Islam gaining TREMENDOUS GROUND (emphasized). At the very least, Israel would be put into a REAL (emphasized) bind, very much more serious than the one now. Hezbollah, Syria, the Palestinians may all declare war on Israel, most likely Hezbollah attacking first.

Much of Al Qaeda may join in to recruit more members and produce more hate and extremists. Hezbollah has declared they will attack within the US, oil may be hit driving up the price EXTREMELY (emphasized).

In fact, because of this, Iran's ties to both Russia and China would become a lot closer, which may mean that for the immediate future, Iran would have the potential to buy nuclear material from China in exchange for a cheap flow of oil.

The consequences of Israel striking Iran could be disastrous for the WHOLE WORLD (emphasized)!

Hezbollah declared they would attack within the US if and only if, the US attacked Iran or Syria in any way.

Answer 1

Maybe they will all nuke each other, and leave us alone.

The spread of nukes is rediculous, and needs to stop. If force is needed to stop Iran....then bomb them.

Answer 2

A fairly assessed possibility. However you've left out a few key points.

France was responsible for Israel's nuclear program. France was responsible for Pakistan's nuclear program. France was responsible for Iraq's nuclear program in the 1980s. In the case of all three countries, the reactors and materials were supplied by the French. The French have a history of enabling nuclear technology, not the United States (excluding the Chinese scandal during the Clinton administration).

Syria has already made attempts at a nuclear program with materials supplied by North Korea (and some evidence says China as well).

The United States will not be the ones to arm the Saudis or the Egyptians with nuclear technology. A nuclear Egypt and a nuclear Saudi Arabia are not foregone conclusions. If, however, they do go nuclear the materials and reactors will probably come from Pakistan (if their nuclear program is advanced enough to share) or France (who has shared many many times).

Dubai, and Kuwait, have tied their economies and survival to the West. They cannot do anything to jeopardize those relationships. I do not see them going nuclear at all.

Hezbollah's fate is tied to Iran's fate. Hezbollah is a proxy army for Iran, that simple. If Iran remains as a terrorist supporting state, Hezbollah will remain and grow stronger. If Iran changes it ways (either from internal pressure, diplomacy, or war), Hezbollah will be forced to rely on Syria alone. Syria does not have the resources or sway that Iran has.

I actually don't think there will be MORE terrorist groups. I think the current ones will get bigger if we don't stop them now. Iran is the primary source here. Money, training, ideological support all come from Iran. Islamic terrorism is organized, it is not a chaotic institution. Operating from that standpoint, new terrorist cells and organizations would be rolled into current terrorist organizations, not new ones. Admittedly, we're somewhat talking semantics here. But there is one key difference: with larger terrorist organizations you still have the same leadership you have now.

Finally, the most important piece that I think you're missing is this: Israel will not allow a mass buildup of nuclear weapons. Pakistan is barely considered the Middle East and poses no threat to Israel. On the other hand, Israel has gone after Syrian nuclear capabilities and they were the ones who destroyed Iraq's reactor. If the West won't do it, Israel will strike Iran, and anyone else they deem necessary, to prevent a nuclear threat to Israel. That alone makes your scenario a little hard to actually reach. For all of your theory to actually happen, Iran would have to go nuclear. Israel will not let that happen, even if it means a preemptive strike. And they will use whatever means the deem necessary, conventional or nuclear.

Now there is some good news in all of this. Libya is no longer a player. That is a big factor here. Libya was a terrorist sponsor. Libya was a developer of WMDs. Not anymore. They've come clean and it looks like they're staying clean. That puts less pressure on Egypt to develop a nuclear capability. Plus Libya were the ones who clued us on Khan's black market. And that black market, as far as we know, was shut down. Those are two huge wins for the United States.

There is also a wildcard at play here: Russia. If Putin is taking Russia back into a confrontational mindset with the West, they may very well start sharing nuclear technology. They are already sharing military technology that's better than what the Russian military is using. And, remember, the Russians and Iranians have a large nuclear deal that has stalled out simply because Iran doesn't have the cash to pay for it, thank President Bush's lead for tougher sanctions on Iran. That is the very reason Russia opposes tougher sanctions on Iran, they want that money.

Answer 3

I think that once a rogue Islamist state or group gets a nuclear weapon they will use it. If anybody remembers MAD (mutually assured destruction), that is what kept the USSR from incinerating the world. Communists by nature are atheistic so they have no after life to look forward to. Therefore highly motivated to not get blown to smithereens. Islamists on the other hand can't wait to get blown up for Allah and get their 70 virgins in their version of the afterlife. No sane U. S. administration is going to ever give any Middle Eastern country nukes.

Answer 4

Obviously you might have given this a lot inspiration as good as your possess analyzes. You are correct-on a couple of however....... #four might be the worst mistake the U.S. would ever make. You can not believe the Saudis, even the phrase of God says this. According to Bible Prophecy that's gambling-out earlier than us daily. It will occur like this: Iran and Russia together with a couple of extra Muslim international locations will assault Israel and all Hell will holiday free. In the e-book of Daniel eleven & 12 describes Iran as Persia, & the king of the North is Russia, king of the south is Egypt, king of the east is china, western countries can also be incorporated within the final wrestle among well & evil, The Battle Arameggdon. This wrestle will final seven years. Syria, Lebanon, Turkey will likely be among the Muslim international locations to comply with Russia and Iran. All that touches the apple of the eyes of God, that is Israel will undergo the wrath of God. Israel would be the handiest Nation as opposed to Judea to outlive. This wrestle will likely be so terrible it's close to uncomprehensible for the human brain to conceive. There will likely be a Nuclear War. Your tongues and eyes will rot for your frame, however you are going to no longer be in a position to die. All actual Christians will likely be Raptured out by means of Revelation four.

Answer 5

So what? We are the only country to have ever used them! We have more nukes sitting off the coast of Iran than all the other countries combined except for Russia and China!

Answer 6

I think you need to realize that to obtain nuclear capabilities takes a lot of intelligence and planning. So your theory is just a theory.

Answer 7

Gives me a headache!

Answer 8

I farted!