Do you think Moore's Law is out dated?

Question

Do you think Gordon Moore's law is out dated and if not when will it be in years.I think its going to have to end at some point.

Answer 1

Moore's law is not outdated in any sense, and in terms of it being applied to general technology trends, it will continue as long as society exists to continue to develop technology.

Although, as Moore's law was originally applied, stating the number of transistors on a given integrated circuit will double every two years, it will eventually end. The trend can potentially continue until transistors begin to approach the size of atoms and can not possibly become any smaller. The technology to keep making transistors smaller is already there, it's only a matter of making it cheaper, so I would say Moore's law in this case will continue for some time to come.

Answer 2

I think Moore's law is out of order and should be outright rejected. Part of me wants to believe it was a ploy by Intel to create an economic model for how to maximize gains selling processors that only slowly get better over time. If you create some arbitrary law dictating how technology will evolve, the public will be inclined to believe it.

Moore's law does not take into account radical and different ways of computing, such as quantum processors. It also ignores the picture of world economics. Suppose cache memory factories start closing, cache memory gets more expensive: Moore's law goes out the window. Similarly, if it becomes cheaper to make processors Moore's law is again invalid (or perhaps Intel would drag along making us think otherwise).

I have no real data to back up my claims, just a 'lil "conspiracy theory". I think it's ignorant to craft 'laws' that dictate the progress of technology, when we can see that throughout history the emergence of several technologies have brought about major paradigm shifts in many industries.

Answer 3

It's definitely not outdated. Computers are still coming down in price and new models still are increasing in power quite a bit.

It's hard to really say how long Moore's law will last as technology is still increasing and new innovations are still being made.