what is the political stability in jamaica and possible civil disruptions?

Answer 1

When a political model predicts a low probability for civil war and no civil war takes place, the model probably had it “right”. This is indeed the case with Jamaica, in both the negative and positive sense. On the negative ledger, it points out that a long history of rebellion and defiance of authority is not a good predictor of civil war; nor are economic grievances, based on the data showing continued and even growing inequality.
On the positive ledger, I would like to note that the importance of a strong state, neither anocratic nor unstable, with foreign aid provided to the state, in a highly urbanized small country as conditions that would highly disfavor the growth of insurgencies. While the standard histories of Jamaica focus on the conditions that favored urban violence, our discussion has highlighted the conditions that disfavor the escalation of violence into civil war onset. The interpretation of the key variables in this model as reflecting a strong state capable to containing insurgencies is largely confirmed in my interpretation of post colonial Jamaica. But it must also be noted that government strategies to co-opt the discontented, giving them both honor and patronage, played a role in sustaining peace in Jamaica, and this is a factor that my model ignored.

Answer 2

Jamaica has traditionally had a two-party system, with power often alternating between the People's National Party and Jamaica Labour Party (JLP).However,over the past decade a new political party called the National Democratic Movement [NDM] emerged in an attempt to challenge the two party system. However, the NDM has almost become irrelevant in the two party system as it garnered only 540 votes of the over 800,000 votes cast in the September 3 elections. Jamaica is a full and participating member of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM).