Is it likely to have a new war on KOSOVO, December 2007?

Question

If Negotiations between Serbian Government and Kosovo Albanians fail, and they will because of unbalanced support of USA to Kosovo independendance,...
If Albanians Declare the Second Albanian Independant State, and they will,......
If Serbian forces enter Northern parts of Kosovo with Serbian Majority, based on Resolution 1244 which they say they wouldn't but they will do,....
If the Domino Effect would turn Europe's worst nightmare into a severe reallity,...
If the world international community (My God, what a silly expression) would continue to neglect international law,...

WHO IS TO BLAME, NOW?

Milosevic is dead, ....so, ...who?

Answer 1

The West, as usual, is to blame. They have used this tactic before in Croatia and in Bosnia. They make these fake "negotiations" but completely remove all incentive to negotiate for the non-Serb party (it's ALWAYS biased against Serbs). In Croatia, Tudjman (despite his fascist-type tendencies) was ultimately pressured to negotiate with the Croatian Serbs to give them autonomy. However, Germany, the Vatican, and the US all gave Croatia assurances that if independence were declared, international recognition (i.e. German and therefore EU recognition and US recognition) would follow. So what incentive did Croatia have to negotiate? By not negotiating, they still get recognition, but can still grab Serb-inhabited territory for themselves.

In Bosnia, the Serbs, Croats, and Muslims were brought to negotiate and managed to agree with the Cutilleiro plan (named after the Portuguese diplomat). This would cantonize Bosnia (Swiss model) so each of the ethnic groups would have self-rule within a single state. However, the US State Department via Warren Zimmerman told Izetbegovic to "hold out" and "see what we can do for you." Izetbegovic then withdrew his signature and embarked on a Muslim-ruled Bosnia in which majority Christians (Serbs and Croats) would be subject to minority Muslim rule. So here, also, the Muslims had no incentive to stay with the much more just (and less boody) solution of cantonization, since they were told that Muslim domination was also an acceptable solution.

Now in Kosovo (as in Rambouillet), they are calling this "negotiations" but are setting a December 10 deadline by which, if there is no settlement, Kosovo will go to the Ahtisaari plan of Albanian Kosovo independence. How does that make any sense whatsoever? What incentive is there for the Albanians to negotiate with the Serbian government if they know they will get their way ANYWAY if they just block and stall until December 10th? By negotiating, they would only stand to lose.

So I can say that without a doubt, in all three conflicts, the West has been agitating and instigating conflict by disincentivizing negotiation for the non-Serb side and pushing through a military option. The response of ethnic Serbs in Croatia and Bosnia, when viewed in light of the history during WWII (Croat-Muslim genocide of Croatian and Bosnian Serbs in death camps, especially Jasenovac) and the brutal Ottoman occupation, makes sense. The West KNEW that Serbs would never again accept Croat or Muslim rule outside of the protection of Serbia (within Yugoslavia). To add to that Muslim and Croat provocations and you have a full war.

In Kosovo, it's obvious that no state will give up territory, regardless of historical or demographic realities, and although the demographics were in favor of the Albanians (through a higher birth rate and ethnic cleansing of Serbs undre the Turks, and during WWI, WWII, and the Tito years), but the history and legality is definitely on the side of Serbia.

To understand these conflicts and the Caucasus situation with Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, and Armenia, you have to understand that the West (i.e. US or Germany, as the case may be) perceives Serbia and Armenia as proxies of Russia. That is why if you look at the planned pipeline routes (Nabucco and Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan) you will see that there is an intentional attempt to obviate these two countries. And that is why Western policies and double standards will ALWAYS come against these two states.

Answer 2

The negotiations will not produce any favorable result simply because USA is backing up the Albanians in Kosovo.

If (read: when) the Albanians declare independence in Kosovo, nothing practically changes. Most probably, Security Council will not recognize it - the main political battle is there. NATO countries will recognize it; it is their conquered territory.

The support of NATO to Kosovo Albanians is not unbalanced. It is criminal. It is punishable by international law. The only problem is that international law is a political concept in which money and power make bigger moves.

Above all, Serbia will not sign the paper giving Kosovo independence. That is its only chance; the chance of a weak country holding firmly to international law.

Serbia will not intervene militarily because it is not capable of confronting NATO. There might be an exodus of Serbs living in Kosovo to Serbia, but it all depends on the intensity of Albanian and NATO pressure upon them. After all, they are people living on their own land. Serbia will appeal to the international community to aid its people living there and will appeal to it to abide to international agreements (as much as possible).

There is no such thing as domino effect of independentisation of countries in Europe. Each country is treated differently. You can't really expect, for example, the Basque to gain independence using the Kosovo momentum...

Selfinterpretation of international law and its nonsanctionability is common practice of powerful countries dealing with the weak ones. We know exactly who to blame, don't we?

The bigger question is what can we do about it?

Answer 3

A 1932 Ford Roadster from Santa Rosa Ca. It's Orange.

Answer 4

You get a star. Most people don't even understand that the albanians are muslims. the us intervened and saved them. they love to move into an area and claim it as their own state, etc. they will multiply and demand a state of their own, free from any laws of the country. That situation exist here in the philippines today, and has been going on for several years. I don't see much progress and if you are right, it will be another nightmare.

Answer 5

In short:Albanian imperialism is to blame for everything on Balkans.

P.S.war is possible but it will be the end of Albanian Kosovars.

Answer 6

1.Dear Avgerinos , your ''concern'' about Kosovo and her future is just amazing . All the facts you are adducing to us it's (seems to me ) like trying to " bring water into serbian mill " . Suit yourself , i have no attention to change your mind , but at least don't pretend being neutral ?
2.''Unbalanced support of USA" ? What about unbalanced support of russia , Greece and other orthodox countries ?
3. "If Albanians Declare the Second Albanian Independent State?" We will declare it and we will enjoy it , be sure of that .
Just tell me : If there is an Greek State , why do we need another one ( Cyprus ) , should the island belong to Turkia or to Greece , 'cause "can not exist two Greek states ''? Or what about Austria and Germany ? What should we do with 2 German speaking countries ? Or with couple of English speaking countries ? Or French speaking countries ? For your opinion only Albanian people shouldn't have two states ? Is it that hard for you to understand that Albanians in Kosovo build their Kosovar identity in centuries of fighting for their Albanian identity ? We are proud of being Albanians and Kosovars in the same time , as you are proud of being Greek and Brazilian .
4.''If Serbian forces enter Northern parts of Kosovo '' ?
serbian forces are already there , but it's only temporary situation , don't worry about it , as soon as Kosovars will force them to leave , they will withdraw , be sure of that .
5.Time of ''domino effects '' is far behind us in Europe , it's new era coming for Europians whith no future for domino effects .
6. International Law is not Bible or K'uran , laws are made by people and people are changing them . Where was Greek concern of International Law when serbians create their state murdering thousands and thousands unarmed Albanian civilians ? Burning their homes , deporting survived in Turkey , bringing serbian peasants in their property ?Tell me please for Çams in Greece , which were deported from their properties back in 1945 ? Was there any International Law ? Is there any International Law that is allowing Greece state to keep Çams property stollen from them ? Please tell me more about International Law , i really must understand your point of wiew !
7. Who is to blame ?? Huuh ! It's an old Albanian saying that guilt is orphan , nobody wants him . As long as we talk about guilt , there will be no solution around . Myself , I am full of hate for serbians , in every breath they make i can feel how their guilt is growing inside me . They made such a terrible crimes among my people that i can't imagine living not even close to them . But , we don't have much choice , do we? As a neighbors we are , we have to live next to each other , everyone in his own seperated state .
As for milošević , he was chosen serbian president , with their free will they've chosen him to represent them . Everything he did , he done it with mandat of serbian voters and they have colective blame . This blame will accompany them for generations .

Answer 7

serbian can't accept the kosovo indipendence, serbians will fight

i think it will be a war.... sad to say.....

only after the war kosovo will be really indipendent