What do you think will happen to Cuba after Fidel Castro and his brother die?

Question

"Brian Latell of the CIA is convinced that even if Fidel Castro does die nothing major will happen in Cuba. He says that there have been no reports of riots nor has there been any credible challenge to succession. The US government is not taking any chances with this situation. The Miami based US Southern Command on training the Coast Guard and Homeland Security just in case there is a mass migration from Cuba to the US. The US is not expecting a mass migration but they do want to be ready just in case."

The question remains that if Fidel Castro does die then will the US try to make Cuba a democracy?

Look, who ever answers my question with who cares is violating the Y/A guidelines. If you don't care, then skip the question.

Answer 1

Few understand how Castro came to power or care. Cuba was a very vibrant country and had a large middle class, but is had nevertheless a class system that was based on the color of ones skin. If you do not believe me, just goggle who can over in those first years when Castro took power. There was hardily a black or mulatto face in the group. It was not until the Mariel Boat Lift in 1985 that the blacks or mulatto had their turn at leaving the island. Those that have stayed on the island other than the ruling members have suffered greatly, but some say they have more under Castro than before, so it the Miami Cubans think that it's going to be a cake walk to regain power whey Castro and his brother goes, they may be badly mistaken. Add to the mix most exiles say they want their formers homes and land back, it going be a real power struggle. I doubt that after 50 years of living hand to mouth those on that island are going want the well fed Miami Cubans to waltz in and declare not only are they back, they are in charge again. It's dea-view all over again and civil war will be on hand
PS It's up to the people of Cuba to decide what kind of government they want, just look how well it worked out for us in Viet Nam, and Iraq is not a bastion of democracy even with us pouring in 8 billion dollars a month to make is so

Answer 2

You dear misguided young man. If Castro dies, we have nothing but more of the same until Raul dies. The government will not fail to the will of the people because Castro or Raul is not the problem - the US is the problem. There is no power vacuum - Fidel is the power. If Fidel dies, Raul is the power. Now about the exiles in the US. They are 3rd, 4th, 5th generation Cubans here - THIS IS THEIR HOME. They argue and shout about returning, but that's just political manipulation. This group of Cubans has manipulated US policy toward Cuba ever since the Bay of Pigs. So don't be fooled. No one is going home. Unfortunately, the US made Castro the corrupt hero he is in his country. And we missed the opportunity to render him irrelevant when the Pope visited Cuba some years ago. We missed another chance to render him and the communist regime irrelevant when he gave power to Raul. All we needed to do was simply remove our embargos and sanctions. Cuba would flourish. But the one thing stopping such a move are the Miami Cubans. MAKE NO MISTAKE.

Answer 3

When Fidel and Raul Castro die, which will be soon, I think the Congress will finally agree to end this ridiculous embargo. With the embargo lifted and tourism increasing, Cuba should blossom. I hope we don't get another Mariel boat invasion. The Castro's should realize this and prepare their country by relaxing some of their rigid rules and encouraging limited private enterprise.

I also hope we don't have Cuban Americans try to invade Cuba.

Answer 4

the majority still supports Castro, his brother Raul has started some limited reforms but dont expect much of a change from him either.

who knows what happens after that

if the US wants change, it should unilatterally open free trade, commerce and tourism with cuba. Cuba would be swamped with american tourists, money and investors, it would have to change right away to handle the influx.

they are already a major tourist draw for canadiens and europeans and those contacts and money have already opened up some freedoms of private enterprise there

Answer 5

When Fidel dies.. nothing will happen.. when his brother dies... some weak dictator will take over.. lose some power.. and within 15 years there will be an revolution and either Cuba will become a Democracy on it's own or another strong dictator will squash the rebellion and take power once again.

Answer 6

I concur with everything that me2 said.

It's difficult to say what will happen, because ultimately it boils down to what the people want. Either the majority will make the determination or it will be those who remain the most powerful.

Answer 7

I think there will be reforms in Cuba. Like freedom of speech, abolition of the death penalty and some privatization, etc. As a Democratic Socialist I reject the Stalinist government of Fidel. Cuba has never been either socialist nor communist. It's totalitarian state capitalism!

Answer 8

There will probably be a slow liberalization of the Cuban economy, as has happened in other communist countries, that could lead to sanctions being dropped.

Of course, if Venzuela continues on it's path to communism, that could change things.

Answer 9

I hope that we'll just leave them alone and let them decide who and what they want to be. I do have a feeling that it will end up becoming a Democracy sometime in the future,... on it's own.

There are enough immigrant Cubans here to attest to the fact that Democracy is better than a totalitarian government, any day.

Answer 10

Hopefully there will be some massive social, economic and political reform. Cuba is a beautiful place with much to offer in agriculture and tourism. Communism has kept it living in a 1950's third world slump.