How long will it take for private organizations to make NASA obsolete regarding human spaceflight?

Answer 1

It will never happen,

Private industry has to show a profit and NASA can work just for the science. Now private industry is about 10-20 years behind where NASA and the Space Shuttle are currently. There is a huge difference between going to the edge of space and into low earth orbit where the International Space Station is. In fact the difference is about 200 km. Since the Space Station orbits at over 300 km and the official edge of space is only at 100 km. Spaceship one and the planned designs barely get to the edge of space.

Of course private industry has been working in the space industry for a long time since communication satellites are privately funded. The company has to pay for the launch, which is the only way that NASA can make a profit.


According to Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station
"The International Space Station (ISS) is a research facility currently being assembled in space. The station is in a low Earth orbit and can be seen from Earth with the naked eye: its altitude varies from 319.6 km to 346.9 km above the surface of the Earth (approximately 199 miles to 215 miles). It travels at an average speed of 27,744 km (17,240 miles) per hour, completing 15.7 orbits per day. The ISS is a joint project between the space agencies of the United States (NASA), Russia (RKA), Japan (JAXA), Canada (CSA) and several European countries (ESA)."

Answer 2

You do realize that NASA gets all its equipment from mostly publicly held companies like Lockheed-Martin, Boeing etc.? NASA does not build rockets and it barely builds anything. It designs systems and then orders the mission critical parts from aerospace contractors. Many details of the launches are supervised by employees of the contractors, not NASA employees.

In other words, what you are asking has been happening from day one.

I think most people really want to know when the large, old, expensive contractors will be replaced by small, new, nimble ones. Never. As soon as a small company manages to build a major system component, it will become just like the big ones.

Answer 3

While NASA may become obsolete, the government will always be involved. Even most private groups are getting the bulk of their money from NASA and the government.

Answer 4

I think that the government will keep control over space flight. I know that there are private company's that are working on it (the X prize and all). But I would bet my left foot that the government is going to control it. Much the same way as the F.A.A. controls airline companies.