Statistical equation required.?

Question

52 Manchester United games are observed. The league position of Manchester and their opponent are taken before the game.
i.e. If Manchester are 4th placed and Liverpool are 8th then Manchester have +4points. If Manchester are 9th place and Arsenal 2nd then Manchester have -7points.

After 52 games it was observed that:
+19 points [2wins to Manchester, 0 draws, 0 losses]
+17 [3,0,0]
+15 [1,1,0]
+14 [0,1,0]
+11 [2,1,0]
+8 [0,0,1]
+5 [2,0,0]
+4 [2,1,0]
+2 [6,2,0]
+1[1,1,1]
-1 [2,0,2]
-3 [1,3,5]
-5 [0,1,0]
-6 [0,1,4]
-9 [1,0,1]
-12 [0,1,2]

From this data what equation can be used to calculate the probability of a Manchester United win, draw or loss for any given points (league placing) between the two teams?

i.e. From this data what is the probability of Manchester winning if they are 3rd place against 2nd place Chelsea?

Hope this makes sense, sure there is some statistical method that can be applied to this.

Thanks.

Answer 1

When you are asking for probabilities when you don't have any but stat, then I recommend using the normal distribution.
Since the size of data is 52 games i.e. =>30, you can assume the data is normally distributed.
Let the points be x
number of wins be y(1)
number of draws be y(2)
number of losses be y(3)

Find the normal distribution for each y factor and you will have your probability.

My method may be wrong, but it's the best I can do right now without super technical knowledge of stats.

Good luck

Answer 2

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Answer 3

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