2007-10-07 06:05:37 · 8 answers · asked by Anonymous in Science & Mathematics ➔ Astronomy & Space
out of the trillions of planets whats the probablity of one of them having life like on earth
2007-10-07 06:07:08 · update #1
im talking about anytype of life including bacteria
2007-10-07 06:39:56 · update #2
Check out the Drake Equation: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/origins/drake.html
This is a way of estimating the number of technological civilizations in the Galaxy based on the probabilities of certain events. Of course, not all of the probabilities are known, but people have made estimations. Estimations range from effectively zero to tens of thousands per galaxy. Typical estimates are of order one.
There's a spreadsheet here you can use to make your own estimation. Reasonable numbers are in by default. Get it here: http://www.setileague.org/software/drakenew.xls .
To get just the amount of life, ignore the probability of intelligence and fraction of civilizations that develop technology. (Set them to 100%.)
Life itself is believed to be widespread, in the millions, and that it will develop on essentially any halfway hospitable planet. While this is the prevailing idea among astronomers, it is by no means universal. Check out the book Rare Earth by Ward and Brownlee for details: http://www.amazon.com/Rare-Earth-Complex-Uncommon-Universe/dp/0387987010 .
2007-10-07 06:38:29 · answer #1 · answered by Anonymous · 0⤊ 0⤋
The drake equation is as good as the numbers you put into it. Some numbers sound small, but are probably wildly optimistic. I would suggest reading about the "rare earth hypothesis" (there is a summary on wikipedia.. According to that theory, life is very abundant, but simple. The jump from single cell life to multicellular is much more difficult than the original life event. Life on earth originated in the first billion years, nearly as soon as the crust cooled, and didn't become multicellular for for almost another three billion years.
2007-10-07 13:54:34 · answer #2 · answered by Anonymous · 1⤊ 0⤋
The probability of at least ONE planet, out of trillions, having life on it, would be 100%.
The hard part will be FINDING that one in several trillion.
It has been stated by some scientist that, since our planet has methane in the atmosphere, which is produced by remites and cows and farts and such, those who search the skies should look for the spot in the spectrum where methane shows up.
Methane would indicate a sort of life. Maybe not people in cities, but something.
Happy hunting!
2007-10-07 13:30:25 · answer #3 · answered by L.V. Ames 2 · 0⤊ 0⤋
There is a famous equation called the Drake equation that estimates the number of civilizations in our galaxy that we can communicate with (if we can find them). One of the factors is the percentage of planets that can support life.
According to Wikipedia, the original estimate was 10 and the current estimate is 2.
I guess since the number is greater than 1, it means the probability is 100%.
2007-10-07 13:33:25 · answer #4 · answered by John B 6 · 1⤊ 0⤋
There are trillions of galaxies out there, and in each galaxy the number of stars range from hundred million to over a hundred billion, and at least one out of every ten stars have a legitimate solar system.
Looking at these numbers, rather than questioning the existence of these planets, I would say the real question here is how many of these planets exist.
2007-10-07 13:16:33 · answer #5 · answered by Charlie 6 · 0⤊ 0⤋
I'm not a scientist and I hate statistics and probability, but doesn't it seem completely feasible? There are other planets in our own solar system with conditions which could theorhetically appease different types of life... There must be many many more planets out there where life actually did take hold. I look forward to intergallactic warfare...aliens are gonna be so rad!
2007-10-07 15:25:00 · answer #6 · answered by justin r 2 · 0⤊ 0⤋
If you don't mind semi dry reading, I would suggest "Probability 1", by Amir D. Acez. I just go finished reading it, and it exclusively deals with that very issue by means of probability mathematics. I'm no math whiz, but I found it fairly easy to follow, interesting, and non-bias by means of logical deduction. It's not a long book, just over two hundred pages, but worth the time in my opinion. I came away with a stronger sense of certainty that we are not alone in the vastness of space.
2007-10-07 13:32:17 · answer #7 · answered by Anonymous · 0⤊ 0⤋
The probability as a percent would be 99. with about a couple million 9's after it.
Doug
2007-10-07 13:27:22 · answer #8 · answered by doug_donaghue 7 · 0⤊ 0⤋