Over time who is more likely to leave the conservative side of the Supreme Court: John Roberts or Samuel Alito

Question

A. Chief Justice John Roberts

or

B. Associate Justice Samuel Alito


Please do not say neither because there are only two choices to select from. Keep in mind that Justices have the freedom to change ideology and this phenomenon has occurred several times throughout history. Calvin Coolidge, Dwight Eisenhower, George Bush, Gerald Ford, Herbert Hoover, John Kennedy, and Richard Nixon’s SCOTUS nominees changed somewhat during their respective judgeships.

Answer 1

As an initial point, I think it is unlikely in either case. You have two hard-core idealogues here, not choices made to appeal to independents or centrists as were most of those who switched. Furthermore, most of the ones who "switched" did so as issues changed. They stayed loyal on the issues that were the reason for their nomination.

Having said that, my hunch says Chief Justice Roberts. His philosophy is a little bit more true conservative (placing him a little to the left of Justice Scalia). Justice Alito is more of an ultra-conservative, somewhere between Justice Scalia and Justice Thomas (the most conservative appointee since 1932).

If Chief Justice Roberts is ever considered a moderate, it will be for the same reason that Justice Stevens is now considered a liberal and Justice Kennedy a moderate. It will not be the Chief Justice who has moved, but rather the entire court. Justice Kennedy is still as right of center as he was when nominated and Justice Stevens is still as traditional Republican moderate as he was in 1975, its just that, traditional Republican moderates are now considered liberals and the balance of this Court has shifted from the center to the hard right.

Answer 2

Of the two, I think Roberts is more likely to look at each case based on its own merits rather than ideology, so over time, Roberts will probably defect (not meant in a bad way) more than will Alito.

Just my hunch from watching these last two nominations.

Answer 3

I agree... neither. If I *had* to %. one, nevertheless, i might %. Roberts to alter perspectives. in case you examine out the countless issues he's asserted, he leaves a touch extra wiggle-room than Alito, yet that still isn't plenty.

Answer 4

I would go with Roberts. He's already made some suprising decisions that weren't very conservative. That's good though. He is basing his legal opinions on the law and not on his personal values.

Answer 5

Both are equally as likely, the probability being close to zero. They both were carefully selected for their adherence to conservative dogma, just like Scalia and Thomas. So I have conformed to your lame request not to say neither even though I find your desire to dictate an answer reprehensible. Just ask the question, bunky, and let us answer as we see fit.

Answer 6

neither