Imagine that Burgoyne and the british had captured saratoga in 1777................?

Question

Imagine that Burgoyne and the
British had captured Saratoga in
1777. How might the course of the
war have changed?

Answer 1

There is a good book called "For Want of a Nail" by Robert Sobel that presupposes this idea.

I don't want to give away any spoilers, but basically the British put down the rebellion and give the North American colonies more autonomy, eventually becoming an independent country somewhat analogous to today's Commonwealth. The leaders of the squelched rebellion (those that survived anyways) flee to the American Southwest and to Mexico, conquering Mexico to form their own country out of Mexico and what is today the western US states and Canadian provinces.

Needless to say, tensions ensue.

The book was written in 1971 and is presented as a non-fiction history text complete with a fictional bibliography and references.

Answer 2

Clearly, the Battle of Saratoga was one of the big wins for the colonials in the American Revolution (along with Yorktown).

I am not sure that a defeat would have been outcome determinative but it would have made it harder to convince France and Spain to give the aid that they did. But for that aid, Yorktown would not have happened.

For a look at how things might have been different if the British had won, I would suggest reading "The Two Georges" by Richard Dreyfus and Harry Turtledove.