I did a little math and it looks like the Padres are screwed in the event of a tie. They are 8-10 against the Rockies and D'backs and 3-5 against Philadelphia. Pretty much, this means that they have to win the division or the wildcard outright to make it to the playoffs?
2007-09-26 08:27:31 · 6 answers · asked by Max S 2 in Sports ➔ Baseball
Another scenario that would work for both the Pads and Phils is if the Phils win their division and the Mets and Padres end up tied. Long shot because that would mean the Pad and Rockies would need to lose more than they win, but I like looking for interesting combos.
2007-09-26 08:54:42 · update #1
While I couldn't find a definitive description of MLB's tiebreaking system, from my understanding, head-to-head records are only considered when two teams are tied for the division lead and both are assured of a playoff spot. Otherwise, the teams will play a tiebreaker game.
If that's true, it doesn't look so bad for the Padres...
I did a little math and created a spreadsheet with the possible outcomes based on the 5 teams in the race (SAN, PHI, COL, ATL, NYM; I took long-shot Atlanta out of the equation). Even if the Padres finish up 0-4, they still will have a 50% chance of being at least tied with the WC record.
Going 1-3 brings that number up to 75%.
Going 2-2 brings it up to 94%.
Going 3-1 will assure at least a tie for the WC.
To be assured of either the division title or WC spot with no tiebreaking game, their chances are fair... at about 57%.
(This is all assuming every team has a 50/50 chance of winning each game.)
2007-09-27 06:13:25 · answer #1 · answered by SqueegieBoy 1 · 0⤊ 0⤋
Ties for the wildcard berth are settled on the diamond.
If the Padres do end in a tie for the wildcard, here's their two-way tiebreaker game scenarios:
Phillies at Padres
Cubs at Padres
Padres at Brewers
Padres at Rockies
So, two chances at home, and the Pods are a pretty good road team. Still not looking that bad.
2007-09-26 09:15:01 · answer #2 · answered by Chipmaker Authentic 7 · 0⤊ 0⤋
It doesn't matter. The Padres finish up the season in Milwaukee. Milwaukee is going to kick their butts just like they did with St. Louis.
(hopefully.)
2007-09-26 09:02:34 · answer #3 · answered by Mee 4 · 0⤊ 0⤋
They'll have to play a one-game tie breaker on Monday....
2007-09-26 10:02:21 · answer #4 · answered by samdugan 4 · 0⤊ 0⤋
wow, let's hope they tie Philly.........i never thought about that math.....
2007-09-26 08:40:17 · answer #5 · answered by Anonymous · 0⤊ 0⤋
You are correct.
.
2007-09-26 08:32:31 · answer #6 · answered by Kris 6 · 0⤊ 0⤋