Hey Poll Watchers! What is your take on this?

Question

Let me be the first to point out that I give polls little to no credence but have repeatedly seen people post polls here and some who do it almost daily.

I did find this to be of interest and for those who do pay attention to polls, do you only post them and pay attention if it heralds your side? Also, based on this poll, do you think that our Presidential election is going to be closer than most people think?

Exerpts:

Clinton and Obama -- Drags on the Ticket?
September 23, 2007 12:44 PM
Very interesting Democratic poll, revealed in today's Washington Post, showing that GOP frontrunner Rudy Giuliani is more popular in key congressional Democratic swing districts than Obama or Clinton.
This would seem to show that despite enthusiasm among Democrats (and some in the media) for their candidacies, Obama and Clinton may not be as powerful in a general election match up as they may right now seem -- and in fact, may be a drag on the ticket in some areas, an argument Sen. John Edwards is trying to underline as he depicts himself as the more mainstream Democrat.
The Clinton and Obama campaigns dispute the findings, of course.
Link for article:

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2007/09/clinton-and-oba.html

Link for poll:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/22/AR2007092201024_pf.html


A recent survey by Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, however, showed Clinton and Obama trailing former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani (R) in the 31 Democratic-held House districts regarded as most imperiled in 2008, and even potentially serving as a drag on those lawmakers' reelection chances.
The poll was conducted in August but has not been previously reported. It paints a "sobering picture" for Democrats, according to a memo by Lake and Daniel Gotoff that accompanies the poll report.
Giuliani takes 49 percent to Clinton's 39 percent, while the former mayor's lead over Obama is far smaller, 41 percent to 40 percent. "Despite Obama's relative advantage over Clinton, both candidates are significantly underperforming against the generic Democratic edge in the presidential and even against party identification," Lake and Gotoff wrote.
The news gets worse for Obama and Clinton as one delves deeper into the survey.
While the average lead of Democratic House members stands at 19 percentage points in the 31 vulnerable districts -- all but two of which are part of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's incumbent-protection program known as Frontline -- that number sinks considerably when the lawmakers are linked to either front-runner.
"Some people say [your Democratic incumbent] is a strong supporter of Hillary Clinton and will support her liberal agenda of big government and higher taxes if she becomes president," the poll stated, before asking respondents whether they would still vote for their incumbent or choose a Republican candidate.
Of interest, these are Democratic pollsters.

Answer 1

All I can say to Hillary and Obama is, STAY THE COURSE!

Answer 2

As you would probably guess about me, I never really pay attention to polls other than to ask how they asked the questions that produced the results that the pollsters wanted at the beginning of the poll.

But this one is really not a surprise. Many democrats believe that Clinton and Obama are socialists in disguise and their public contempt for the military really irks many other democrats.

Personally, when we present the facts about the purposed policies of the leading democrats, the people begin to open their eyes and notice how much of their individual freedoms will be removed if any democrat is elected president.

Answer 3

A swing district is one that can go either way. What the poll results show is that as of now, people who are on the fence will vote Republican if Hillary or Barack is nominated.

It shows that congress may tip toward a Republican majority if either of these 2 Democrats runs. Thus, a Democrat may win the Presidency, but his or her party might not win a majority of the seats in Congress.

If you really don't believe in polls as you say, then there's no reason for you to be crowing about or even asking about this one poll. But if you're paid by the question, then I understand.

Answer 4

The manner in which the question was posed would invite skewed numbers. They might have received different results if asking..."Some people say [your Republican incumbent] is a strong supporter of runaway deficits provided by big government leading to higher taxes if Guliani becomes president," the poll stated, before asking respondents whether they would still vote for their incumbent or choose a Republican candidate.

Answer 5

Yes, I believe that Rudy is doing better with democratic voters than perhaps Hilary or Obama..the problem is that he will never be going up against them, because the GOP will not give him the candidacy.

Answer 6

One big problem I can see with this survey is that there is no location given to the swing voters. These are relative numbers, like I would expect a rural county in a blue state to vote republican. This is not very good data.

Answer 7

Hmm - it it interesting - but as pointed out to ask such a leading question/statement is hardly unbiased.

Plus the fact that experienced "Poll Watchers" such as me don't use single polls in a vacuum to see trends - it takes multiple polls showing similar trends to see a direction, and it's pretty clear no such direction or trend exists.

Answer 8

I think anyone who takes only one poll is just asking to be proven wrong.... now I will concede that the more polls you have.. the more sound a statement you can make.. that's just simple statistics... and so I do respect a statement that uses an aggregate of most of the polls... but that's about it.

Answer 9

"Some people say [your Democratic incumbent] is a strong supporter of Hillary Clinton and will support her liberal agenda of big government and higher taxes if she becomes president,"

if that's what the poll actually asked it is not at all a scientifically valid poll.

Answer 10

I think it's funny...the only reason conservatives even bring up polls is because they are brought up by libs and dems daily...otherwise we would ignore them. But it's fun to see the polls that make the left squirm lol.