These top 15 players of each position are in the Fantasy Draft. I thought they might speak some truth of the top 15 of each position but I'll let you judge.
Point Guards.
1. Gilbert Arenas - Washington Wizards
Age: 23 Height: 6'3'' Weight: 191 School: Arizona Years: 5 Role: Starting PG
Gilbert is the perfect fantasy point guard. He won’t just give you prototypical point guard stats; he’ll dominate them. Filling the stat sheet with points, threes and steals is the norm for the lightning quick All-Star, and he just keeps getting better and better. It seems as though there is no ceiling for this guy, as he improves his game in nearly every aspect every year. A deadly sharpshooter from the outside, Arenas can also use his quickness to drive to the hoop or nail down a mid-range jumper. Putting the ball in the basket isn’t his only saving grace, though. He’s improved his court-vision during the last few seasons and will dish out around six assists per game. The best part of his game, however, has to be his free throw shooting. Much like Dwyane Wade, Arenas is adept at drawing fouls on his way to the basket. Not many can match his 82 percent from the line in 10 free throw attempts per game.
Bottom Line: He might not be the best assist guy in the group of elite PG, but he certainly makes up for that with his dominance in other categories. As a very low risk, high reward player, consider yourself lucky if you find him anywhere outside of the first round this season.
2. Chris Paul - New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Age: 21 Height: 6'0'' Weight: 175 School: Wake Forest Years: 1 Role: Starting PG
After an impressive rookie campaign, it is clear that Chris Paul is the future of the point guard position. With seemingly limitless potential, the kid averaged 16.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, 7.8 assists, 2.2 steals and 0.6 threes in his rookie season. Simply put, this kid is good…real good. Not only does he contribute in nearly every category but he also shoots a high percentage from the line (85 percent). He also showed the ability to get to the charity stripe often with six free throw attempts per game. Paul’s stats are favorably comparable to a young Jason Kidd, only with more offensive firepower. His three-point shooting was the only disappointment in 2005-06, but he’s a technically sound shooter and should improve in that area this year.
Bottom Line: This will be the last time you will be able to acquire Paul outside of the first round. He’ll likely go after guys like Iverson and Nash but could easily outperform both. Grab him in the second and enjoy first round production.
3. Allen Iverson - Philadelphia 76ers
Age: 31 Height: 6'0'' Weight: 165 School: Georgetown Years: 10 Role: Starting PG
Trade or no trade, Allen Iverson will score, steal, dish and knock down free throw after free throw no matter where he plays. As of press time, the trade rumors have died down, and he’s one of those players that will have similar value regardless of what uniform he’s wearing. In his second year at the point, Iverson continued to prove that he’s not just a gunner. His 7.4 assists per game ranked eighth in the NBA, and his improved shot-selection led to a much-improved 44.7 shooting percentage from the floor. Always a top-notch thief, Iverson uses his quickness, anticipation and tough on-ball defensive pressure to create around two steals per game. Don’t forget about his brilliant free throw shooting, either. During the last two seasons, Iverson has shot higher than 80 percent from the line while attempting nearly 11 shots from the stripe per game. His three-point shooting isn’t spectacular, but he’s kept it respectable by averaging more than a three per game for eight straight seasons.
Bottom Line: If there is anything to worry about, it’s that Iverson’s intense style of play can lead to a variety of injuries, but he is one of the biggest warriors in the game and will play through pain if he’s physically able to so. Take the high turnovers with a grain of salt as Iverson will put you near the top of the standings in points, assists and steals.
4. Steve Nash - Phoenix Suns
Age: 32 Height: 6'3'' Weight: 195 School: Santa Clara Years: 10 Role: Starting PG
Not since John Stockton have we seen a player dominate the assist category the way Steve Nash has during the last two seasons. A nice contrast to the new wave of high-scoring point guards, Nash is an old-school player with a pass-first mentality. Aside from his crisp passing abilities, Nash’s greatest strength lies in his ability to get down the court quickly and lead the fast break. Even if Amare Stoudemire isn’t 100 percent to start the season, we can realistically expect Nash to lead the league in assists for a third straight season. With Joe Johnson in Atlanta and Amare on the shelf, Nash took on more point scoring responsibilities last season and responded with a career-high 18.8 points per game. Impressively, he did this without sacrificing the other aspects of his game. His 10.5 assists per game were down from 11.5 in 2004-05 but still led the league by a large margin. He also picked up the slack on the boards, putting up a career-high 4.2 rebounds per game. If there’s anything to complain about, it’s his lack of steals from the point guard spot. The Canadian has never averaged more than a steal a game and doesn’t figure to do so at this point in his career. No need to worry, though, Nash more than makes up for his lack of steals by shooting more than 50 percent from the floor and 90 percent from the line.
Bottom Line: Nagging injuries are frustrating and we can a expect a modest regression in points, threes and boards if Amare returns to form, but Nash will still be a dominant fantasy point guard.
5. Jason Kidd - New Jersey Nets
Age: 33 Height: 6'4'' Weight: 210 School: California Years: 12 Role: Starting PG
A few years ago, Jason Kidd was a sure fire first round draft pick in fantasy drafts. Last year, injury concerns dropped his stock to the point where he was found hanging around in the second or even third rounds. When healthy, Kidd is one of the top point guards (if not the best) in the NBA. Those who nabbed him in the third round last season were rewarded with 13.3 points, 7-plus rebounds, 8-plus assists, nearly two steals and 1.7 threes per game. You will have to endure the dismal field goal percentage, but he’ll make you happy as he flirts with triple-doubles on a nightly basis. He’s not shy about involving his teammates and with proven scorers like Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson and even Nenad Krstic on his side, he’ll come close to challenging Steve Nash for the league lead in assists this season.
Bottom Line: Don’t be fooled, even at 33 years of age, Kidd still has a few good years left in the tank. Draft him with confidence in the second round despite his injury concerns.
6. Chauncey Billups - Detroit Pistons
Age: 29 Height: 6'3'' Weight: 202 School: Colorado Years: 9 Role: Starting PG
After three solid seasons as Larry Brown’s protégé, Chauncey Billups took his game to the next level in new head coach Flip Saunders’ up-tempo offense. Billups posted career highs in points (18.5), assists (8.6), threes (2.3) and free throw attempts (6.4) with Saunders at the helm. The points and threes were to be expected, but nobody could foresee the increase of nearly three assists per game. With the assist totals climbing, Billups has gone from solid fantasy starter to fantasy stud in just one season. Other than Big Ben Wallace leaving town, the Pistons are virtually the same tea, and since Wallace didn’t offer much on the offensive end, Billups should be expected to shoulder the same offensive load in 2006-07. We’d love to see more steals, but the domination in threes and his near 90 percent shooting from the line will make up for his lack of thefts.
Bottom Line: Draft Billups with four categories in mind: points, assists, threes and free throw percentage. He’ll dominate those areas but needs to improve his field goal percentage and steal totals in order to be mentioned in the same breath as the rest of the elite fantasy point guards.
7. Mike Bibby - Sacramento Kings
Age: 28 Height: 6'2" Weight: 190 School: Arizona Years: 8 Role: Starting PG
While not as flashy as some of his counterparts, Mike Bibby is as solid as they come among fantasy point guards. In 2005-06, Bibby became the go-to-guy on the offensive end for the Kings and responded with career highs in points (21.1) and three pointers (2.3). The points and threes were nice, but Bibby’s assist totals dropped from 6.8 to 5.4 and his thefts dropped from 1.6 per game to 1.0. The numbers didn’t change much once Ron Artest joined the squad, but his steals improved in the second half, perhaps because Ron-Ron’s tough defense forced more errant passes. Though he won’t dominate any particular category, he’ll contribute favorably in points, assists, threes, steals and the percentages.
Bottom Line: Underrated for years, Bibby has now propelled himself into fantasy stardom with his newfound ability to put the ball in the basket. He’s rarely injured and is a very solid number one point guard that can be found in the third round of your fantasy draft.
8. Jason Terry - Dallas Mavericks
Age: 28 Height: 6'2'' Weight: 180 School: Arizona Years: 7 Role: Starting PG
After a dismal first season in Big D, Jason Terry turned his game up a notch and helped lead the Mavericks to the NBA Finals in 2005-06. Back in 2004-05, Terry found himself in Don Nelson’s doghouse, averaging just 30 minutes per game. When Avery Johnson took over, his playing time increased and his stats followed suit. With Nellie out of the picture, Terry averaged 35 minutes per game and responded with 17.1 points, 3.8 assists, 1.3 steals and 2.1 three pointers per game in 2006-07. Although most of his stats came back to his career norms, Terry’s assists completely dropped off the table. It’s a trend that should continue into next season, as Terry acts as more of a shooting guard than a point guard in Avery Johnson’s offensive game-plan. In fact, Terry actually led the team in assists with just 3.8 per game, and the Mavs averaged just 18.0 assists per game on the season. As a matter of reference, the New York Knicks averaged a league-worst 17.9 assists per game. With point guard Devin Harris coming into his own, Terry might find himself playing the two more often than not this season. With this in mind, Terry’s point scoring and threes should remain high but don’t expect his assists to improve anytime soon.
Bottom Line: Assists or not, Terry is still a valuable fantasy commodity. He’ll contribute heavily in points, threes and steals while keeping his percentages and turnovers respectable. Add in some bonus points in leagues that count turnovers, Terry averaged just 1.7 turnovers per game last season.
9. Kirk Hinrich - Chicago Bulls
Age: 25 Height: 6'3" Weight: 190 School: Kansas Years: 3 Role: Starting PG/SG
A rising star in the NBA, Kirk Hinrich has everything you are looking for in a fantasy point guard. Solid point totals (15.9) to go along with 6.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.6 threes and 81.5 percent from the free throw line. Hey, that makes for a nice number one point guard in fantasy leagues. Though he is young and has the ability to improve his numbers, Hinrich actually took a step backwards last season. Sure, he shot better from the floor (41.8 percent), but his steals and threes took a hit while his points and assists remained the same. For that, we can blame the Bulls deep bench, which allows Scott Skiles to limit his starters to less than 40 minutes per game. In fact, Hinrich led the Bulls in minutes with an average of 36.5 minutes per game. He’s the point guard version of Pau Gasol, circa 2004-05. Great talent, great player but never sees more than 40 minutes per game. With that in mind, it’s hard to get too excited about Hinrich’s upside. Despite this, there is reason for optimism. The Bulls are a young team on the rise, and Hinrich is their ringleader. He’ll have plenty of finishers to dish to, including Luol Deng, Ben Gordon and the freakish Tyrus Thomas, which should lead to an increase in his assist totals in 2006-07.
Bottom Line: As he gains experience in his fourth professional season, we can expect Hinrich to improve on his numbers across the board. If you miss out on some of the top tier PG’s, Hinrich is a fine option as a number one fantasy point guard.
10. Stephon Marbury - New York Knicks
Age: 29 Height: 6'2'' Weight: 200 School: Georgia Tech Years: 10 Role: Starting PG/SG
Categorizing Marbury’s 2005-06 season as a down year would be an understatement. A year-long feud with head coach Larry Brown didn’t help his cause as Marbury’s minutes and production dropped off the table. While 16.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 0.6 threes per game isn’t terrible, it’s well below his career averages of 20.2 points, 8.1 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.2 threes per game. Nobody knows how Isaiah Thomas will fare as the head coach of the Knicks, but one thing is for sure, he’s going to give Marbury plenty of freedom on the court. Many will call into question Marbury’s ability to lead a team, but fantasy owners should care about one thing and one thing only: stats. There is no question that Marbury has the tools to put up monster fantasy lines and with Thomas letting him run, he should return to form in 2006-07. There is still plenty of risk here, including the fact that the Knicks have two gunners in the backcourt in Steve Francisand Jamal Crawford. Marbury becomes a nice high risk, high reward gamble after last season’s debacle.
Bottom Line: Once a top-five fantasy point guard, Marbury’s downfall will probably drive down his asking price in fantasy drafts this season.
Update: The more I think about it, the more Marbury becomes a steal in fantasy drafts this year. “Starbury” is going in the fourth round in early fantasy drafts, where he becomes a major steal. Expect a big bounce back season and draft accordingly.
11. Tony Parker - San Antonio Spurs
Age: 24 Height: 6'2'' Weight: 180 School: France Years: 5 Role: Starting PG
Parker stepped up his play in his fifth full season, setting career highs in points (18.9) and field goal percentage (.548). He isn’t the best assist man (5.8) and won’t hit any threes (0.1), but his 54.8 percent on 14.2 shots per game blows away the competition. His high percentage from the floor is largely due to his reluctance to shoot the three ball. Parker knows his limits and doesn’t attempt many three point shots, thus keeping his field goal percentage high. Like many of his teammates, Parker is a good defender and is adept at stepping in the passing lanes to create at least a steal a game. Parker is still young so he has plenty of upside, but he’ll have to improve on his free throw percentage (.707) and three pointers to move into elite status.
Bottom Line: With the Spurs lineup virtually unchanged, Tony Parkershould continue to be a solid fantasy performer. He’ll contribute in points, assists, field goal percentage and steals and makes for a fine number one point guard in fantasy leagues.
Update: No need to worry about the broken finger that kept him out of the FIBA World Championships as Parker is looking very sharp during the early stages of training camp.
12. Andre Miller - Denver Nuggets
Age: 30 Height: 6'2'' Weight: 200 School: Utah Years: 7 Role: Starting PG
After a few years marred in fantasy mediocrity, Andre Miller returned to prominence in Denver under the direction of head coach George Karl. Miller’s outstanding play had fantasy owners flashing back to 2001-02 when he was one of the league’s premier assist men. The emergence of Carmelo Anthony as the go-to-guy certainly helped as Miller upped his assists from 6.9 to 8.2 per game. Much in the mold of Tony Parker, Miller’s field goal percentage remains high due to the lack of range on his jump-shot. Knowing his limitations, he attempted only 0.3 three pointers per game last year, a trend that should keep his field goal percentage in the .460-.470 range. Always a top notch thief, Miller has put up more than a steal per game in each of his six NBA seasons. He’s also an above average rebounder for a guard as he has averaged more than 4 boards per game in each of his last six seasons.
Bottom Line: Due to his mediocre performances since leaving Cleveland after the 2001-02 season, Miller is still a bit underrated in fantasy leagues. Scoop him up after all the big names are gone, and you’ll have yourself a quality fantasy point guard.
13. Baron Davis - Golden State Warriors
Age: 27 Height: 6'3'' Weight: 223 School: UCLA Years: 7 Role: Starting PG
Baron Davisis truly one of the most exciting and entertaining players in the NBA, that is, when he’s on the court. There was a time when Davis was considered an iron-man of sorts as he hadn’t missed a single game in his first three seasons in the league. Unfortunately, he is now known as one of the most injury prone players after missing considerable time during the last four years. Despite his injury history, Davis is big-time when he’s on the court, averaging 17.9 points, 8.9 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.9 threes per game last season. These are the types of numbers Davis can put up if he’s fully recovered from the various injuries that have kept him out of action. Aside from the injuries, Davis still has some risk attached to him. He’ll kill you in field goal and free throw percentage and turns the ball over at an extremely high rate. Still, if you can stomach the percentages and the turnovers, he’ll be a dominant force in points, assists, steals and threes.
Bottom Line: Davis is the ultimate high-risk, high-reward pick. If you are feeling lucky, take a chance. He just might stay healthy this year.
14. Raymond Felton - Charlotte Bobcats
Age: 22 Height: 6'1'' Weight: 198 School: North Carolina Years: 1 Role: Starting PG
Though he spent much of his rookie season sitting behind the oft-injured Brevin Knight, Raymond Felton flashed signs of brilliance in his first season as a pro. Had Knight not been around, Felton may have actually challenged Chris Paul for Rookie of the Year honors. Don’t laugh; just take a look at Felton’s stats after the All-Star break: 16.7 points, 7.6 assists, 1.4 steals and 2.0 threes per game. Chris Paul-esque indeed. The Bobcats seem ready and willing to hand the keys to the offense over to Felton this year. Although Knight still resides in Charlotte, he’ll play second fiddle to Felton in 2006-07.
Bottom Line: A sleeper and waiver wire pickup last season, Felton is ready to take off in fantasy leagues this year. Guaranteed to be on many a sleeper list, Felton has the potential to be a top-10 point guard and should live up to the hype.
15. Speedy Claxton - Atlanta Hawks
Age: 28 Height: 5'7'' Weight: 170 School: Hofstra Years: 5 Role: Starting PG
Though he started just three games for the Hornets, Speedy Claxton proved to be a valuable fantasy backup by posting 12.3 points, 4.8 assists and 1.5 steals in 28.5 minutes per game. Signing an off-season deal with the Atlanta Hawks, Claxton immediately becomes a super sleeper due to an expected increase in minutes. The Hawks desperately needed a true point guard to lead their incredibly young and talented squad and got just what they were looking for in Speedy.
Now an unquestioned starter, Claxton should see around 35 minutes per game and will be a big time contributor in assists and steals. Living up to his name, he’s as quick as anyone in the league and will always be among the league leaders in steals if given the minutes. As a starter for Golden State back in 2004-05, Claxton averaged 13.1 points, 6.2 assists and 1.9 steals per game. In Atlanta, we should expect more or less the same, though he could certainly up those assist numbers with Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, Josh Childress and Salim Stoudamire around to finish off his passes. His sleeper status is well-deserved, but fantasy owners should realize that Claxton’s upside relates to only three categories: points, steals and assists. Limited range and poor shooting from the floor will keep him from becoming an upper echelon point guard in fantasy leagues.
Bottom Line: Everyone will have Claxton on their sleeper lists, making him not much of a sleeper at all. Still, he’s talented enough to live up to the hype, especially in assists and steals.
Update: Speedy is a sleeper candidate once again. Unfortunately, his return to the sleeper realm is due to a broken finger that might put Opening Day in jeopardy. The good news is that Claxton is healing well and is able to keep up with his conditioning so he won’t need to get back into shape once he’s healthy.
On to Shooting Guards.
1. Kobe Bryant - Los Angeles Lakers
Age: 27 Height: 6'6'' Weight: 220 School: Lower Merion (HS) Years: 10 Role: Starting SG
In his first season back with Phil Jackson, Kobe Bryant put up one of his best statistical seasons ever, and that’s pretty impressive given his brilliant nine-year career. As the only legit scoring option for the Lakers, Kobe posted career highs in points (35.4) and three-pointers (2.3) while continuing to put up dominant numbers in almost every other fantasy category. The big fantasy attraction to Bryant isn’t his ability to score at will; it’s his free throw shooting. With 10.2 attempts per game and connecting at an 85 percent clip, there is no one that can control the free throw percentage category better than Kobe. Other than adding Vladimir Radmanovic, who will help spread the court, the Lakers haven’t changed their personnel much and will continue to rely heavily on all facets of Bryant’s game.
Bottom Line: Kobe is a sure fire top-five pick and should put up another tremendous season under Phil Jackson.
2. Dwyane Wade - Miami Heat
Age: 24 Height: 6'4'' Weight: 225 School: Marquette Years: 3 Role: Starting PG/SG
Simply put, Dwyane Wade is the best in the business. LeBron James may have the superior stats and fantasy status, but Wade has the ring and the stats to boot. LeBron and Wade were the only two players in the league to average more than 20 points, five rebounds and five assists per game last season. If that’s not enough, Wade also added two steals, 0.8 blocks and a ridiculous 49.5 field goal percentage. That 49.5 percent is even more impressive when you factor in his 18.8 shots from the floor per game, a number that may go up this season. Those that watched the 2006 NBA Playoffs know Wade has an uncanny ability to get himself to the free throw line. Last year, he attempted a whopping 10.7 shots from the line and shot an above-average 78.3 percent. In a fantasy sense, only two categories should worry you: turnovers and three-pointers. Turnovers are a lost cause, but Wade greatly improved his three-point shooting during the 2006 NBA Playoffs. While he probably won’t be a big time three-point shooter, his 37.8 percent from beyond the arc during the playoffs shows potential to improve in his worst statistical category.
Bottom Line: Forget about threes and turnovers, Wade’s dominance in nearly every category is more than enough to make up for his so-called deficiencies. He should be a top five pick in your draft but will likely go towards the end of the first round.
Update: A mysterious hand injury has Wade taking it easy during training camp. An MRI revealed no damage – just inflammation – so he should be OK to start the season.
3. Paul Pierce - Boston Celtics
Age: 28 Height: 6'6'' Weight: 230 School: Kansas Years: 8 Role: Starting SG/SF
Paul Pierce is the total package. As one of the most consistent fantasy performers in the game, Pierce always puts up big time stats and never misses time due to injury. What more can you ask for in a first round pick? As a player, Pierce is a multi-category producer that will score, rebound, dish, steal and drill three pointers. A proven scorer, Pierce can score in a variety of ways, whether by draining the outside shot, driving to the basket or drawing a foul. He’ll get to the line about 10 times per game where he’ll help your FT percentage immensely by shooting around 78-80 percent. The biggest, most surprising addition to his game has been his improving field goal percentage. A career 44 percent shooter, Pierce shot 47.1 percent from the floor last season. He’s unlikely to duplicate that feat again this year but should be able to keep it in the 45-46 percent range.
Bottom Line: Pierce is as close to a sure thing as anyone else in the league. He’s never missed considerable time due to injury, and he’s always posted tremendous stats in almost every fantasy category. Somewhat underrated in fantasy leagues, he’ll go towards the end of the first round but produces like a mid-first round selection.
4. Ray Allen - Seattle Supersonics
Age: 31 Height: 6'5'' Weight: 205 School: Connecticut Years: 10 Role: Starting SG
Allen makes the game look easy with his flawless jump shot and great instincts on the court. If you are looking to finish high in the standings in three pointers, there’s no one better in the league to have than Allen, who has hit on at least 2.5 threes a game in each of his last seven seasons. In fact, last year, Allen led the league by 70 three pointers! As one of the best free throw shooters in the league, Allen gets to the line about five times per game and can make a huge difference hitting on at least 88 percent of his shots from the charity stripe. Allen doesn’t rebound or pass as well as Pierce or Kobe but keeps it respectable with consistent boards and assists per game, all while creating more than a steal per game.
Bottom Line: A solid second round pick, Allen will put up big-time points and threes while offering little risk to those who draft him.
5. Joe Johnson - Atlanta Hawks
Age: 25 Height: 6'7'' Weight: 230 School: Arkansas Years: 6 Role: Starting SG
Johnson went through some early growing pains with his new team but came on strong after the first month to live up to his preseason hype. Acting as the main playmaker, JJ turned himself into a dominant assist man, averaging 7.2 assists after the All-Star break. With the addition of Speedy Claxton, Johnson won’t have to be the main playmaker on the Hawks anymore. That, in turn, will decrease his assists, but he won’t turn the ball over as much and will increase his scoring, rebounding and three pointers. As the “man” in Atlanta, JJ should be a 20/5/5 guy while adding a bunch of threes and more than a steal per game.
Bottom Line: Johnson put up some huge numbers in his first season with the Hawks and is on his way to being mentioned in the same breath as Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and the rest of the dominant shooting guards.
6. Tracy McGrady - Houston Rockets
Age: 27 Height: 6'8'' Weight: 210 School: Christian Academy (HS) Years: 9 Role: Starting SG/SF
It’s hard to believe that in just one year Tracy McGrady could be considered injury prone. That’s what happens when you miss 37 games with a lingering back injury. Reportedly, T-Mac is feeling great and is ready to go after taking nearly three months off from basketball related activities. Still, when the words “chronic” and “back” are mentioned in the same sentence, one has to be worried about his ability to come back pain-free. Despite the injury concerns, T-Mac is way too talented to be overlooked in fantasy leagues. Even in a down year, he still averaged 24.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.6 threes and even tossed in 0.9 blocks for good measure. When healthy, T-Mac is as good as anyone in the game and can post Kobe Bryant-like stats for fantasy owners.
Bottom Line: High risk, high reward. The sting of last season won’t wear off too quickly for fantasy owners, and T-Mac could drop to the second round in 2006-07. If he does and can stay healthy, he’ll be a major steal.
Update: T-Mac is reportedly looking great and explosive during the first few days of training camp. If that puts to rest your concerns about his back, you may want to consider gambling on him in the second round. You might move him up a few notches on your cheat sheet and am hope to grab him at the end of the second or early third round.
7. Vince Carter - New Jersey Nets
Age: 29 Height: 6'6'' Weight: 220 School: North Carolina Years: 8 Role: Starting SG
When he’s motivated, Vince Carter is easily one of the best players in the NBA. Many will question his durability, toughness and leadership, but even his detractors wouldn’t dare question his game. With the Nets, Carter put up Tracy McGrady-esque numbers, scoring 24 points with nearly six boards, four assists, 1.2 steals and 1.6 threes a game. He’ll even throw in some blocks for good measure, as he has averaged 0.9 blocks per game in his eight year career. It’s no coincidence that playing with Jason Kidd has helped Carter regain his status as one of the NBA’s top players. With the Nets lineup virtually unchanged, Carter will take on the same offensive responsibilities in New Jersey again this season.
Bottom Line: Once considered a major injury risk, Carter has missed just eight games during the last two seasons. The injury prone label is now behind him and even though he’s a no-brainer as a second round pick, he could fall into the third round. If he does, consider yourself lucky.
8. Jason Richardson - Golden State Warriors
Age: 25 Height: 6'6'' Weight: 225 School: Michigan State Years: 5 Role: Starting SG
A flashy player with great athleticism and the ability to jump out of the building, Jason Richardson has all the tools to be a superstar in the NBA. His style of play is reminiscent of a young Vince Carter with his high-flying dunks and ability to contribute in multiple categories. Now entering his 6th season as a pro, Richardson has matured and improved his game every year. J-Rich is a great option for points (23.2), rebounds (5.8), assists (3.1), steals (1.3) and threes (2.4). Most valuable for his improving three-point shooting, he’s also done a much better job in shot selection, culminating with a 44.6 percent from the floor last season. If there’s anything holding him back from becoming a fantasy superstar, it’s his dismal free throw percentage that stood at 67.3 percent last season.
Bottom Line: Don’t worry if you can’t land one of the elite shooting guards, Richardson is a great option after all the big names are off the board.
9. Michael Redd - Milwaukee Bucks
Age: 27 Height: 6'6'' Weight: 215 School: Ohio State Years: 6 Role: Starting SG
Like Ray Allen, Michael Redd has one of the game’s smoothest shots. Most valuable for his ability to score at will and drill the three, Redd had his best season as a pro, posting career highs in points (25.4), assists (2.9), steals (1.2) and free throw percentage (87.7 percent). With his all-around game coming into shape, Redd can no longer be considered just a two-category stud. The improvement didn’t come out of nowhere; his improved supporting cast certainly helped in the process. There aren’t many that can match Redd from the charity stripe. His 87.7 percent shooting percentage from the line ranked ninth in the NBA, and his 7.1 attempts per game makes him one of the most dominant free throw shooters in the fantasy game. Though T.J. Ford’s departure may hurt Redd a little, the addition of Charlie Villanueva will help, as opposing defenses will be forced to cover the versatile big man instead of doubling up on Redd.
Bottom Line: Redd’s reputation as a two-category specialist might push him into the fourth round in fantasy leagues. He’s a third round value, especially with his contributions in points, threes and free throw percentage.
10. Manu Ginobili - San Antonio Spurs
Age: 29 Height: 6'6'' Weight: 205 School: None Years: 4 Role: Starting SG
If only the playoffs counted in fantasy. Manu’s penchant for big-game heroics means little-to-nothing in the fantasy world, but the potential is truly salivating. Manu isn’t just clutch, though…his production in the playoffs can be traced back to an increase in minutes.
After proving himself on the game’s biggest stage, Manu Ginobili is ready to make the jump from solid fantasy performer to elite status. Most impressive about his playoff run was his playmaking ability. At times, he absolutely took over games, using his blazing speed to blow by defenders and create scoring opportunities. Although he only averaged 16 points, four rebounds and nearly four assists during the regular season, those numbers were weighed down by the fact that he played in less than 30 minutes a game. In the playoffs, he received 33.6 minutes and responded by scoring 20.8 points with 5.8 boards, 4.2 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.8 threes while shooting more than 50 percent from the floor and near 80 percent from the line. Part of the statistical increase can be attributed to the fact that Ginobili is a clutch player, but the increase in minutes also played a large part in Manu’s dominance during the playoffs. It will be hard for San Antonio to keep Manu off the floor this year so expect to see his minutes climb to the 33-35 range.
Bottom Line: Manu has the ability to be an 18/5/5 player in this league, and he’ll be a dominant force in threes (1.3) and steals (1.6) while shooting great percentages. This is the year he breaks out in the fantasy world, and you’ll want him on your team when he does.
11. Raja Bell - Phoenix Suns
Age: 30 Height: 6'5'' Weight: 210 School: Florida International Years: 6 Role: Starting SG
Filling the void left by the departure of Joe Johnson and Quentin Richardson, Raja Bell stepped in and became the beneficiary of increased playing time and Steve Nash's amazing talent for finding the open shooter. In Phoenix, Bell became one of Nash’s favorite targets and posted career highs in nearly every fantasy relevant category. With 14.7 points, 1.0 steals and 2.5 threes per game on 45.7 percent shooting from the floor, Bell turned in a highly efficient season. It wasn’t all Nash, though. Bell showed signs of breaking out in previous seasons; he just didn’t receive the minutes he needed to be productive. Though he won’t create his own shot, Bell has turned into a great spot-up shooter and will take advantage of Nash’s playmaking abilities again in 2006-07.
Bottom Line: With only 1.1 turnovers per game, Bell gets extra points in leagues that count turnovers. He won’t hurt you anywhere and will contribute favorably in points, threes and steals.
12. Larry Hughes - Cleveland Cavaliers
Age: 27 Height: 6'5'' Weight: 184 School: St. Louis Years: 8 Role: Starting SG
After a career year in Washington, Larry Hughes took his game to the Cleveland Cavaliers and struggled through an injury-plagued season. Missing games is familiar territory for Hughes as he’s reached 70-plus games just once in his eight-year career. Even when on the court last season, Hughes wasn’t his usual self, posting just 15.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.5 steals and 0.8 threes per game. Those numbers aren’t bad, but they’re not what his fantasy owners were expecting, either. He still has the talent, though. Remember, Hughes is just one year removed from a season in which he averaged 22.0 points, 6.3 boards, 4.7 assists, 1.0 threes and 2.8 steals for the Washington Wizards. Keep in mind that Hughes posted those numbers with both Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison taking shots away from him, so he has the potential to put up numbers even with Lebron James and Zydrunus Ilgauskus in the mix. When healthy, he’ll be a solid contributor across the board especially in steals, where he will challenge for the league lead.
Bottom Line: A huge injury risk, Hughes should be drafted with caution. That said, his potential is salivating if he’s healthy, making him worth the investment.
13. Stephen Jackson - Indiana Pacers
Age: 28 Height: 6'8'' Weight: 218 School: Butler County CC Years: 6 Role: Starting SG
Jackson is always a quality option for points, steals and threes as he averaged 16.4 points, 3.9 boards, 1.3 steals and 1.4 threes per game for the Pacers in 2005-06. Despite that, his percentage from the floor stands at a paltry .411 and while his free throw percentage is solid (78.1 percent), he turns the ball over way too much for a shooting guard (2.5). This is not to mention he doesn’t offer much in terms assists. Regardless, Jackson is a prototypical SG for fantasy leaguers and his ability to put up at least a steal and three-pointer per game will prove valuable for your squad. The Pacers have thought about moving Jackson, but he still resides in Indiana as of press time and should post similar or better stats than last season with Peja Stojakovic in New Orleans/Oklahoma City.
Bottom Line: Keep an eye on how the Pacers use Marquis Daniels during preseason action. Daniels’ presence could reduce Jackson’s playing time, although it’s more likely he’ll be used as a point guard if Jamaal Tinsley struggles. Draft Jackson in the mid-rounds for his points, threes and steals but mark him down a tick in leagues that count turnovers.
Update: Uh, oh, another public relations nightmare for the Pacers. A recent run in with the law may have Jackson on the outs with Pacers upper management – particularly Larry Bird. Even if he did act out of self-defense and did nothing wrong at all, Jackson doesn’t have the luxury of getting the benefit of the doubt in a situation like this (given his inclusion in the melee at the Palace). Keep a close eye on how the Pacers react, and be ready to give Marquis Daniels a bump in value (even though Daniels was at the scene as well).
14. Cuttino Mobley - Los Angeles Clippers
Age: 30 Height: 6'4'' Weight: 215 School: Rhode Island Years: 8 Role: Starting SG
Mobley, who averaged 14.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.1 threes per game for the Clips last year, will again help spread the court with his sharp-shooting abilities from downtown. Unfortunately, in an offense that focuses on Elton Brand and mid-range jumpers, Mobley hit on a career-low 1.1 three pointers per game. Still, Mobley is a fine option at shooting guard for his ability to excel in threes, points and steals and near 83 shooting percent from the free throw line. His rebounding is decent for a guard and he’ll probably pull in around 4 a game. He’ll fit in well on the Clippers and should be primed for another solid season.
Bottom Line: There’s little risk attached to Mobley as he’s usually healthy and consistently puts up numbers that we expect of him. If you’re looking to find a SG who will contribute in points, threes and steals, Mobley is your man.
15. Richard Hamilton - Detroit Pistons
Age: 28 Height: 6'7'' Weight: 201 School: Connecticut Years: 7 Role: Starting SG
Always a great option for points, steals and the percentages, Richard Hamilton put on a show last year, hitting on 49.1 percent of his shots from the floor and scoring a career high 20.1 points per game. His steals dropped from 1.0 per game to 0.7, but his range is subtly improving to the point where it’s within reason to see him hitting a three pointer per game. With Flip Saunders in and Larry Brown out, Rip was allowed more freedom on the offensive end and teamed with Chauncey Billups to form one of the highest scoring backcourts in the league. It’s true, he’s more valuable in real life than in the fantasy game…but he’s also a little underrated in fantasy leagues. His killer percentages set him apart from the crowd, especially considering the high volume of shots he takes from the floor every night.
Bottom Line: Not much risk here, Hamilton can be counted on as a solid fantasy producer. You’ll never have to worry about him taking a night off, as he’s one of the hardest working, most determined players in the game.
Small Fowards
1. LeBron James - Cleveland Cavaliers
Age: 21 Height: 6'8'' Weight: 240 School: St. Vincent/St. Mary (HS) Years: 3 Role: Starting SF
Well, that didn't take long. Three years in the league and LeBron James is the unquestioned number one pick in fantasy basketball and will be for a long time to come. The numbers from last year: 31.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.6 threes, 1.6 steals and 0.8 blocks per game to go with 48 percent shooting from the field and 73.8 percent from the line. You should close your mouth before you drool all over the page. Seriously, that's nasty. The scary part about James' game is that it should still get better. He could easily become an 80 percent free throw shooter and if he decided that blocking shots was a priority, you think he couldn't pick that up as well? While it is more likely that he adds improved free throw shooting to his repertoire, James has the ability to do whatever he wants in this game. In the fantasy game, you won't have that luxury unless you have the number one pick because that is where LeBron should be going in every draft this year.
Bottom Line: The King. LBJ. Bron Bron. Call him what you will, he is the number one fantasy player in the game today. Draft him and know that he is helping in every category except turnovers.
2. Shawn Marion - Phoenix Suns
Age: 27 Height: 6'7'' Weight: 228 School: UNLV Years: 6 Role: Starting SF
In many fantasy formats last season, it was Shawn Marion, not LeBron James, who was the top ranked fantasy player. Marion is amazing in that he helps in almost every category and yet does not commit many turnovers. With the best players in the game, it is almost a certainty that they will have a high volume of turnovers by virtue of how often the ball is in their hands. Not so with the Matrix. His numbers were dazzling last season: 21.8 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.2 threes, 2.0 steals, 1.7 blocks and just 1.5 turnovers per game on 52.5 percent shooting from the field and 80.9 from the line. The only stat he doesn't help with is assists (just 1.8 per game). Well, eight out of nine isn't bad, right? How will the Matrix fare this season? We can expect a slight drop off. With Amare Stoudemire coming back and a healthy Kurt Thomas, Marion's points will likely drop back to the 19 point per game range, and he may lose half a rebound or so per game. Marion shouldn't have to log 40 plus minutes per game with these two back in the Phoenix frontcourt. He will still have Steve Nash and Boris Diaw passing him the ball, so Marion will enjoy plenty of high percentage shots.
Bottom Line: Marion is a top five pick, and in leagues that count turnovers, you could argue top three. Wherever you take Marion, you will be getting fantasy stud who helps everywhere except assists. But, hey, that's what point guards are for.
3. Andrei Kirilenko - Utah Jazz
Age: 25 Height: 6'9'' Weight: 225 School: None Years: 5 Role: Starting SF
Andrei Kirilenko is a draft day dilemma. He does so many things so well, you would think he has to be a top five pick. Then you look at his games played and realize he logged just 41 games in 2004-05 and 69 last season. Every player in the league has injury risk. Kirilenko has had some bad luck with a sprained ankle and broken wrist. His knee is fine as was seen in his 220 blocks last year. His back spasms are a concern if they become chronic. It's too early to tell if that's the case. When healthy, AK-47 is a monster. Last year he averaged 15.3 points, 8.0 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.5 steals and 3.2 blocks per game. His percentages slipped a bit last year (46 percent from the field and 69.9 from the line) but after a sloppy first two months, AK righted the ship and returned to his normal high 40s from the field and mid 70s from the line. This year, he should maintain his high percentages. He will once again use his long arms and impeccable timing to pick off passes and swat shots. With Deron Williams maturing as a point guard and Derek Fisher on the team, he could see an increase in scoring from better passing.
Bottom Line: Injury concerns could let Kirilenko slip to the end of or even out of the first round. If this happens, enjoy the bargain and grab him up. Like LeBron and Marion, he is another small forward, multi-cat monster.
Update: AK-47 has added some muscle during the off-season and comes into camp in the best shape of his life. His new dedication to health and nutrition should help keep him healthy, making him less of a risk entering fantasy drafts.
4. Peja Stojakovic - New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Age: 29 Height: 6'10'' Weight: 229 School: None Years: 8 Role: Starting SF
After playing for the Kings and Pacers last season, Peja finds himself in new surroundings this year. Now working alongside Chris Paul, there is every reason to expect Peja to look very good in his new uniform. With Paul's ability to breakdown defenses and kick to the open shooter and Peja's ability to shoot over the top of most defenders, we should see an improvement across the board for Peja. While his overall numbers weren't what we have come to expect from Peja, he certainly improved once he moved to Indiana, averaging 19.5 points, 2.3 threes and 6.3 rebounds with only 1.3 turnovers on 46.1 percent shooting from the field and 90.3 from the line. This year, he should easily top 20 points, hit 2.5 threes per game and provide you with great percentages. His rebounding won't blow you away and defense isn't why you draft him, though he is capable of a steal per game. Enjoy Peja's strengths and his low turnovers. He remains a solid pick.
Bottom Line: Draft Peja for his scoring, threes and great percentages. The Hornets will be looking his way for scoring early and often this year, making him a low-risk second or third round pick in fantasy drafts.
5. Rashard Lewis - Seattle Supersonics
Age: 26 Height: 6'10'' Weight: 215 School: Pineville (HS) Years: 7 Role: Starting SF
For a 6’10” player, Lewis has incredible touch on his shot from the outside and will be one of the best three point shooters in the game for many years to come. Playing in the fast-paced Sonics offense will help and with opposing defenses keying on Ray Allen and sharp-eye Luke Ridnour looking for him, Lewis will get his fair share of open looks. Expect numbers similar to last year when he averaged 20.1 points, 1.8 threes, 5.0 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 0.6 blocks on 46.7 percent shooting from the field and 81.8 percent from the line. His rebounding and shot-blocking are weak for a player of his size, but he makes up for it with his great percentages, modest turnovers and great outside shooting. He is essentially a Peja Stojakovic clone with fewer points and more steals.
Bottom Line: Lewis will probably be available later than he should. Jump all over him if he's available in the late third to fourth rounds in your draft.
6. Gerald Wallace - Charlotte Bobcats
Age: 24 Height: 6'7'' Weight: 220 School: Alabama Years: 5 Role: Starting SG/SF
Gerald Wallace exploded on the fantasy scene last season. His numbers were dazzling: he averaged 15.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.5 steals and 2.1 blocks per game with 53.8 percent shooting from the field and 61.4 percent from the line. The free throw shooting was poor—and is consistent with his career average—but, man, the numbers everywhere else were just sick. Wallace was the only player in the league to average over two steals and two blocks per game. Those numbers alone elevate him to the elite. But he can score, rebound and shoots a very good percentage to boot. Not to mention his turnovers are low as well. He is an amazing athlete with incredible quickness and leaping ability. He is not afraid of contact and has the toughness to once again provide elite defensive stats. So what's the catch? Injuries. Wallace has never played more than 70 games in a season. If he can maintain his health, he could move to near the top of this list.
Bottom Line: On talent alone, Wallace is one of the best players on this list. He is a tenacious defender and is a great finisher around the rim. If you are looking to capitalize on great defensive numbers from one player, Wallace is your man. Just be ready for a few trips to the injured list.
7. Ron Artest - Sacramento Kings
Age: 26 Height: 6'7'' Weight: 252 School: St. John's Years: 7 Role: Starting SF
Ron Artest starts with a clean slate this season. How many times do you figure you'll read that leading up to the season? Well, it's true and it's not. Artest played great defense for the Kings once he arrived and won over the Arco faithful. As a King, he averaged 16.9 points, 1.5 threes, 5.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 2.0 steals and 0.8 blocks on a ghastly 38.3 percent from the field and 71.7 percent from the line. These numbers should improve this year. Part of the reason for Artest's low field goal percentage was his penchant for three-pointers. If he can cut back on his attempts, from five to around three, his overall shooting percentage should climb. Artest's value is that he can score, pass, hit some threes and is a born thief (career average 2.1 steals per game). Sounds like one of the top players in fantasy. But fantasy owners have long memories, and those who took him early in either of the past two seasons will be very wary of doing so again. That kind of doubt can be contagious. Take advantage if Artest slips in your draft.
Bottom Line: A high risk/high reward pick, Artest could pay huge dividends if he can keep himself out of trouble this season. All of his numbers should go up so long as he plays to his strengths—incredible defense and a nice mid-range jumper—and is more judicious with his shot selection.
8. Lamar Odom - Los Angeles Lakers
Age: 25 Height: 6'10'' Weight: 230 School: Rhode Island Years: 6 Role: Starting SF/PF
Often maligned as an underachiever, Odom provides excellent fantasy numbers at a good price. The public perception of Odom—often hurt, doesn't try hard—depresses his value. This is to your advantage. The numbers don't lie. No, Odom doesn't score as much as he could (14.8 per game last year), but since he does everything else so well, his owners shouldn't sweat that. After all, points are easily found in fantasy. Finding a player eligible at both forward spots who can average both ten rebounds and five assists is not. Odom is also solid on the defensive end, averaging almost a block and steal per game last year. He is a deft ballhandler and shoots an excellent percentage from the field. Don't overlook Odom on draft day this year. His combination of shooting, rebounding, passing and solid defense is a rare find.
Bottom Line: Play up his reputation as an underachiever and let your league mates pass on Odom. Then swoop in and steal him in the 4th round.
9. Josh Smith - Atlanta Hawks
Age: 20 Height: 6'9'' Weight: 225 School: Oak Hill Academy (VA) Years: 2 Role: Starting SF
Move over small forwards, there's a new a kid in the top ten, and his name is Josh Smith. He started the season slowly but blew up the last few months. Post-All-Star break Josh averaged 15 points, 1.1 threes, 7.8 boards, 4.1 assists, 3.1 blocks and 1.0 steals. The blocked shots we expected; the added three-point shooting and assists were the shockers. It goes to show how much talent this kid has that he could suddenly add two categories to his repertoire. The best part? J-Smoove is only going to get better. He is becoming frighteningly similar to Andrei Kirilenko in his statistical aptitude. Smith won't go cheap this year as shot-blocking is always a premium in fantasy. Getting blocks from a guard-eligible player makes him all the more valuable. Add to this the possibility that he could be AK-47's equal at a cheaper price and you have a player to target. Let's just hope he can excel in the first half of the season as well as he has in the second.
Bottom Line: Smith is gold for teams in need of blocked shots—better still, in most leagues he can provide them from the guard spot as well as forward. Last year, he was a steal in the middle rounds. This year you'll have to go earlier to get him.
10. Carmelo Anthony - Denver Nuggets
Age: 21 Height: 6'8'' Weight: 230 School: Syracuse Years: 3 Role: Starting SF
If you are looking for scoring from your small forward, Carmelo is your man. He is a pure scorer, able to stroke jumpers from the wing and blow past most defenders. His first step and body control around the basket make him almost impossible to stop once he gets close to the rim. He developed very nicely in George Karl's offense and should continue to grow this year. Last year he averaged 26.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.1 steals and 0.5 blocks on 48.1 percent shooting from the field and 80.8 from the line. His high volume of shots and free throws made make him an extremely valuable contributor in those categories. His defense and three-point shooting could stand improvement but remember this kid is only 21. He will just keep getting better and better. Don't be shocked to see him boost his rebounds this season. He was an excellent rebounder at Syracuse.
Bottom Line: We'd like Carmelo to improve his rebounding but can live with the great percentages and the fact that he will once again be among the league leaders in scoring.
11. Richard Jefferson - New Jersey Nets
Age: 26 Height: 6'7'' Weight: 225 School: Arizona Years: 5 Role: Starting SF
Who loves Jason Kidd? Richard Jefferson does. Jefferson's offensive efficiency improved across the board from 2004-05 when Kidd missed the season with microfracture surgery. His field goal percentage climbed from .422 to .493, his turnovers dropped from 4.0 to 2.2 and while his scoring fell from 22.2 to 19.5, he took far fewer shots to get those points. This tells us that Jefferson can create his own offense if he has to but is far more efficient when he has a master like Jason Kidd setting him up. This year, he will remain the number two option on offense and will again score about 20 points, grab seven boards, hit almost one three, dish close to four assists per game and get you great percentages from the field and line. He won't help much in the defensive categories, so look elsewhere for blocks and steals.
Bottom Line: Jefferson is a model of efficiency who provides 50 percent shooting from the field and 80 percent from the line. He has the potential to score more than he does but so long as Vince Carter is healthy, Jefferson will remain a 20 PPG guy.
12. Caron Butler - Washington Wizards
Age: 26 Height: 6'7'' Weight: 228 School: Connecticut Years: 4 Role: Starting SF
Butler emerged as a stud small forward last season. He really turned it on after the All-Star break, averaging 19.3 points, 1.1 threes, 7.0 boards and 2.0 steals per game with 47.8 percent shooting from the field and a stellar 86.7 percent from the line. These are pretty good numbers for someone who is the third scoring option in Washington behind Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison. Look for more of the same from Butler this year. Defensively, Butler will use his great anticipation and quickness to pick off passes. He is versatile offensively, scoring inside and out. Caron has found a new confidence in his three-point shooting last season, upping his attempts and percentage after the break. This is good news for his owners. Expect somewhere around 17-19 points with 6-7 boards, nearly 2 steals and a three per game with excellent percentages from Butler this season.
Bottom Line: Caron's overall numbers somewhat mask his excellence in the second half of last year. If he lasts into the middle rounds of your draft, you will have a bargain.
13. Andre Iguodala - Philadelphia 76ers
Age: 22 Height: 6'6'' Weight: 207 School: Arizona Years: 2 Role: Starting SF
Talent may not grow on trees, but it does grow on Andre Iguodala. While he is known for his steals and high flying dunks, AI2 is capable of filling a stat sheet on any given night. Last year's numbers hinted at the promise to come: 12.3 points, 5.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.7 steals and 0.7 threes per game to go with 50 percent shooting from the field and 75.4 percent shooting from the line. What's holding him back? The fact that he is the third option behind notorious gluttons Allen Iverson and Chris Webber. If his teammates looked for him more often, Iguodala would score much more frequently. Draft him for his all-around contributions and hope that either by injury or game plan he gets more looks on offense.
Bottom Line: Even if he remains the third option for the bulk of the season, his ability to rebound, steal and shoot a high percentage will endear Iguodala to his owners.
14. Ricky Davis - Minnesota Timberwolves
Age: 27 Height: 6'7'' Weight: 195 School: Iowa Years: 8 Role: Starting SG
Ricky started 68 of his 78 games at shooting guard last season and the rest at small forward. This year will be different. With Randy Foye ripping up the summer leagues, Davis shifts to small forward. The fantasy impact is minor. Ricky's splits between the two positions are nearly identical. With gunners like Foye and Mike James on board, Ricky could lose a few shot attempts. His assists should continue to delight at around five per game. He totaled more assists (394) than anyone on this list not named LeBron or Lamar. With fewer shot attempts, his field goal percentage could rise as that has been the case historically with Davis. If you draft Ricky, you'll get a high teens scorer who drops dimes like rhymes and shoots good percentages.
Bottom Line: Ricky may lose a few shot attempts with Randy Foye and Mike James joining the Timberwolves, but his assists and shooting percentage should rise. Ricky is an excellent option for assists and scoring and will provide steals and some threes as well.
15. Morris Peterson - Toronto Raptors
Age: 29 Height: 6'7'' Weight: 220 School: Michigan State Years: 6 Role: Starting SF
Coming off of his best professional season, Morris Peterson should see a little more love from fantasy owners come draft day this year. With Chris Bosh getting double-teamed so often, Peterson took advantage of the open space outside and averaged 16.8 points, 2.2 threes, 4.7 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game. His field goal percentage (.436) was very solid for a player who attempted as many threes as he did. Peterson is also money from the line (.820). With a drive and dish point guard like T.J. Ford now on the Raptors and Chris Bosh commanding even more attention from opposing defenses, Peterson will again be a fine option for points, threes and steals.
Bottom Line: Mo Pete has finally achieved the consistency his owners craved. His numbers really took off toward the end of last year. If his minutes reach the upper 30s, he could approach 20 points per game.
Power Fowards.
1. Kevin Garnett - Minnesota Timberwolves
Age: 30 Height: 6'11'' Weight: 220 School: Farragut Academy (HS) Years: 11 Role: Starting PF/SF
Kevin Garnett is a fantasy owner’s dream. He has posted seven straight seasons of at least 20 points, 10 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.4 blocks with great percentages. He’s only missed a total of nine games in the last seven years and dominates every single category except for three pointers. There’s no one better in the league at grabbing tough rebounds in traffic and he’s skilled at finding open teammates when opposing teams collapse on him in the paint. He’ll shoot nearly 50 percent from the floor and 80 percent from the line, which is remarkable for a big man. Add to the fact that he is eligible at both forward positions, and you have the recipe for a stud. There are reasons to think this year could be better than last for KG. With new additions Mike James and Randy Foye raining shots from outside, things should open up inside for Garnett.
Bottom Line: Garnett shouldn't fall any further than the number three overall pick in your draft. Though there were some grumblings that he had lost a step last year, don't believe it.
2. Dirk Nowitzki - Dallas Mavericks
Age: 28 Height: 7'0'' Weight: 245 School: None Years: 8 Role: Starting PF
Dirk did not have the greatest series in the finals but do not let that diminish your appreciation of the man. He is still the best pure fantasy power forward in the land. Last year Dirk scored a career-high 26.6 points with 9.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1.0 blocks and 1.4 threes a game. He’s also great for the percentages shooting 48 percent from the floor and 90.1 percent from the free throw line. Those are incredible numbers. For a 7-footer, Dirk has great ball handling skills and touch from the outside. He can create his own shot scoring off the dribble and finish the three-point play inside. And, of course, there is always the deadly long range jumper. He is close to un-guardable. He’s solid defensively, getting close to one steal and one block a game in each of the last six years. When you consider he’ll also rank in the top ten in both points and rebounds, you know why he should not be available when the second round of your draft starts.
Bottom Line: You can’t go wrong with drafting Dirk in the first round. He’s been a dominant force in the league for six straight years and rarely misses games due to injury.
3. Elton Brand - Los Angeles Clippers
Age: 27 Height: 6'8'' Weight: 272 School: Duke Years: 7 Role: Starting PF
Elton Brand has been as regular as the sunrise every fantasy season. You could just pencil him in for another 20/10 season with good percentages and close to two blocks per game. Last year he broke with this consistency—in a good way. He posted a tremendous season for the L.A. Clippers. In his breakout season, Brand averaged 24.7 points, 10.0 boards, 2.6 assists, 1.0 steals and 2.5 blocks while shooting 52.7 percent from the floor and 77.5 percent from the line. What boosted Elton from his already excellent play to near MVP level? A new winning attitude in Clipperland and the addition of a savvy point guard like Sam Cassell explain some of it. Whatever it was Brand got the most out of himself and given that he is entering his peak years at age 27, there is no reason to forecast much backsliding this year. On defense, Brand will continue to use his long arms to create steals and block scads of shots. There is no reason to question his offense. Chris Kaman's improvement means opposing defenses won’t be able to double Brand as much. And with Cassell and Shaun Livingston feeding Brand in the post, he will be in line to score well again. It really doesn’t get much better than Brand as year in and year out he produces for the Clippers.
Bottom Line: Brand has moved into first round territory with his statistical dominance. He is a lock for scoring, rebounds, blocks, and great percentages. He is a great grab toward the end of the first round.
4. Tim Duncan - San Antonio Spurs
Age: 30 Height: 6'11'' Weight: 260 School: Wake Forest Years: 9 Role: Starting PF
Tim Duncan may not get many points from the bling set but fans of the game know he remains one of the greatest players in professional basketball. He is the Big Fundamental after all, establishing post position with ease and grace and skilled at passing out of the inevitable double-team. Despite his excellence, last year was a down one for Duncan. He averaged career lows in points, field goal percentage, rebounds, and blocked shots. Of course, when the averages include 18.6 points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 2.0 blocks on 48.4 percent shooting from the floor and 62.9 percent from the line you realize that, free throw shooting aside, most players would be ecstatic to call these career highs. Further, Duncan played most of the season on a bad ankle. His numbers improved dramatically in the playoffs, averaging 25.8 points on 57.3 percent from the field and 71.8 percent from the line. A healthy Duncan will come back to his career averages this season and reassert himself as the premier power forward of his generation.
Bottom Line: Duncan may drop to the late first round due to questions about his free throw shooting and his overall performance last season. If he does, scoop him up and enjoy another spectacular season from the big man.
5. Chris Bosh - Toronto Raptors
Age: 22 Height: 6'10'' Weight: 235 School: Georgia Tech Years: 3 Role: Starting PF
Bosh took the step last season and has entered the fantasy elite. He improved in every category except blocks and steals, averaging 22.5 points, 9.2 boards, 2.6 assists, 1.1 blocks, and 0.7 steals on 50.5 percent from the field and 81.6 percent from the line. It is his shooting that really distinguishes Bosh for fantasy players. He is a 50/80 guy who shoots with high volume. This is crucial. Among power forward-eligible players who played serious minutes, only Bosh, Shawn Marion, Kevin Garnett and David West shot both 50 percent plus from the field and 80 percent plus from the line—though Dirk came close. Bosh shot and made more free throws than any of these players. He averaged 6.8 made free throws per game; Garnett, with the second most, averaged 5.2. Marion and West weren't even close. The more attempts a player makes, the more his high percentages help your team. Bosh gets to the line with a dazzling array of moves and is an excellent mid-range shooter. With Charlie Villanueva out and pass-first point guard T.J. Ford in, Bosh's attempts from the field and line will only increase. It is reasonable to expect Bosh to be among the league leaders in scoring this season. He will also grab about ten boards and block over a shot a game. As valuable as Bosh is at power forward, his value is increased even more in leagues where he has center-eligibility. Catch this kid while he's on the rise.
Bottom Line: Bosh is still young at just 22 years of age and will continue to improve his game. Owners in keeper leagues will want to lock Bosh up long-term as he is much younger than the other power forwards operating at this elite level.
6. Pau Gasol - Memphis Grizzlies
Age: 25 Height: 7'0'' Weight: 240 School: None Years: 4 Role: Starting PF
Yes, he has a beard that beatniks envy and clearly is evading the NBA's fashion police, but last year Pau Gasol established himself as an elite power forward. And in the end fantasy owners don't care about the Paella stuck in his beard, we care about the numbers stuck in our totals. They were great numbers last year: 20.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.9 blocks on 50.3 percent shooting from the field and 68.9 percent from the line. Those of us who suffered through the limited minutes when Gasol played under Hubie Brown expected the points, rebounds and blocks with more minutes under Mike Fratello. But what makes Pau Gasol special is his assists. Pau showed that he more than merely adept at passing out of double-teams; he was masterful. Among power forwards, no one else provided the same combination of blocks and assists. Gasol is still young, and he is clearly driven. He is likely to build on his already superlative numbers this year.
Bottom Line: Don't let the shaggy appearance put you off; grab Gasol early and enjoy well-rounded numbers reminiscent of Chris Webber in his prime.
Update: Hold that thought. Gasol’s foot surgery puts a serious damper on his value, as it’s anticipated Gasol will miss the entire 2006 portion of the 2006-2007 season. Even when he does return, Pau will be more concerned with getting his game back than taking it to the next level. Gasol drops out of the top 100, but he’s still worth a draft-and-stash, especially in a keeper league.
7. Jermaine O’Neal - Indiana Pacers
Age: 28 Height: 6'11'' Weight: 260 School: Eau Claire HS (SC) Years: 10 Role: Starting PF
This ranking is no slight to Jermaine. He remains an elite power , but injury concerns during the past two years force us to drop him a few spots. He has engaged in what he has described as his most rigorous off-season fitness regimen ever in hopes to beating the injury bug this season. Jermaine is still in his prime at age 28, so if he can return to health, he could be a steal for owners in leagues where folks are injury-shy. Jermaine provides a lethal combination of scoring, rebounding and blocked shots. Last year in 51 games, O'Neal averaged 20.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 2.3 blocks on 47.2 percent shooting from the field and 70.9 percent from the line. Jermaine has a tendency to settle for the jump shot, which drags his shooting down, but not enough to negatively affect his value. Further, his shooting percentage has gone up the past two seasons. With a career average of near 70 percent from the line, he's acceptable for a power forward. With former secondary scorers Peja and Artest gone, O'Neal could see a spike in his scoring this year, akin to the numbers he put up two seasons ago.
Bottom Line: Jermaine is working hard to stay healthy this season and if he accomplishes this, he will be a great value. His dominance in points, boards and blocks makes him a great pick in the third round should he slip that far in leagues where his recent injuries have spooked owners.
8. Dwight Howard - Orlando Magic
Age: 20 Height: 6'11'' Weight: 245 School: Southwest Christian (HS) Years: 2 Role: Starting PF/C
No one on this list has more athletic upside than this kid. And in a bit of bad news for other post players in the league, Howard added more muscle to his already impressive build during the off-season. In his first two years in the league, Howard has averaged a double-double. Last year he averaged 15.8 points, 12.5 rebounds and 1.4 blocks on 53.1 percent shooting from the field and 59.5 percent from the line. In addition to being consistent, Howard improved his value by staying healthy. Howard has yet to miss a game in his career and last year, despite finishing second in rebounds per game (to Garnett), he was first in total rebounds by 66. It's the totals -not the averages- that count in fantasy. As good as Howard projects to be (and 20 points, 14 rebounds with two blocks a game isn't a stretch), he still needs to improve his free throw shooting and cut down on the turnovers. If he can get over 70 percent from the line, he will move near the top of this list. The sky is the limit for this kid, and if Darko Milicic proves he can hit his jumper and draw defenses out, it will only create more room for Howard. The kid could be a beast this season.
Bottom Line: Keeper league owners should be all over Dwight Howard. He turns just 21 on December 8 and has years of growth ahead of him. There is a strong possibility that the Magic will start Howard at center and Milicic at power forward. If this comes to pass, Howard's value jumps even further.
9. Antawn Jamison - Washington Wizards
Age: 30 Height: 6'9'' Weight: 235 School: North Carolina Years: 8 Role: Starting PF
Often overlooked and almost always taken later in drafts than he should be, Antawn Jamison may have changed the perception of him as a tweener last year. He started most games at power forward and thrived. His numbers were fantastic: 20.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, 1.8 threes and 1.1 steals on 44.2 percent shooting from the field and 73.1 percent from the line. On a team that stresses offense like the Wizards do under coach Eddie Jordan, there is no reason to think Jamison's numbers will slack off much. If Arenas is the clear number one, Jamison has firmly established himself as the second option on offense. Whether he's spotting up for threes or using his ultra-quick hops to score inside, he is a handful for opposing power forwards. The downside to Jamison's game is his defense. He will never be a good source of blocks (just 0.2 per game last year) but should grab about a steal per game for his owners. Jamison's best fantasy asset is his range. When you can get almost two threes a game from your power forward without sacrificing rebounding, you give yourself a very good chance at winning that category.
Bottom Line: Jamison is a great option for his points, rebounds and threes. That he is also eligible at small forward makes him even more valuable. He’ll be the clear second option on the Wizards, and his speed and range will again perplex defenses this season. Consider him a solid 4th round fantasy pick in medium-sized leagues.
10. Carlos Boozer - Utah Jazz
Age: 24 Height: 6'9'' Weight: 258 School: Duke Years: 4 Role: Starting PF
If you are looking for a lunch pail power forward who won't cost too much to obtain on draft day, Carlos Boozer is your man. His value will be deflated going into this year's drafts and auctions because he has played just 84 games during the past two seasons. Last year, waiting for Boozer to come back from his strained hamstring was like waiting for Godot. The difference being that Boozer did in the end show up to play in the last 33 games. He put up the kind of numbers we can expect from him this year: 16.3 points, 8.6 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.9 steals and 0.2 blocks on 54.9 percent shooting from the field and 72.3 percent from the line. Except for his low blocks, Boozer provides prototypical power forward numbers: good scoring and boards to go with nice percentages. We wish he would make defense a priority as that would catapult his value, but that doesn't appear in the offing for Boozer.
Bottom Line: Boozer could slip in drafts because of his injury history. Don't be afraid to grab him after the elite power forwards are gone. A full season of Boozer's numbers will make any owner happy. Just be sure to shore up on blocked shots from other players if you select him.
Update: Boozer comes into camp in great shape and looking healthy. Now he just needs to keep it up during the regular season.
11. Boris Diaw - Phoenix Suns
Age: 24 Height: 6'8'' Weight: 215 School: None Years: 3 Role: Starting PF/SF/C
Diaw will most likely be drafted ahead of several players ranked higher than him on this list. So, why this ranking? First, power forward is ridiculously deep this year. Second, with the return of a healthy Amare Stoudemire and Kurt Thomas, it is unclear exactly how many minutes he will log and how he will mesh with Stoudemire in particular. I think he is going to be just fine, and his assist numbers could go even higher than last year. The vision of Diaw throwing lobs to Amare is a beautiful one. Diaw scored 13.3 points, grabbed 6.9 rebounds, dished out 6.2 assists, blocked 1.1 shots and snatched 0.7 steals on 52.6 percent shooting from the field and 73.1 percent from the line. Diaw should repeat or improve on all of these numbers. His scoring improved to 18.7 per game in the playoffs, and that could forecast what he does this year. His rebounding will remain a bit light as Amare, Shawn Marion and Kurt Thomas all rebound so well. Otherwise Diaw's positional and statistical flexibility will be of tremendous value to his owners.
Bottom Line: In most leagues, Diaw will enjoy the widest position eligibility of any player in the NBA. This alone makes him valuable. The fact that he contributes in every category except threes seals the deal. Diaw is a great option for any team with shoot-first point guards because of his high assist totals.
12. Chris Webber - Philadelphia 76ers
Age: 33 Height: 6'10'' Weight: 245 School: Michigan Years: 13 Role: Starting PF
C-Webb threw us a curveball last season. He stayed healthy. The last time Webber logged as many as 75 games was 1999-2000, eight seasons ago. We all kept waiting for an injury that never happened. Webber gave us good numbers along the way, posting 20.2 points, 9.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.4 steals and 0.8 blocks on 43.4 percent shooting from the field and 75.6 percent from the line. In twelve-team leagues, Webber lasted until sixth and seventh rounds, a great value. Webber's assists were down from year, and that is likely to stay the same so long as he is "sharing" the ball with Allen Iverson. AI dominates the ball so much that Webber doesn't get the assists he did earlier in his career. He has averaged just 3.33 assists per game as a Sixer. Will we see another healthy season for C-Webb? It doesn't seem likely given his age and history, but if he does, he will once again provide excellent numbers.
Bottom Line: Webber once again represents a gamble for fantasy owners. He obviously still has the ability to be a top forty fantasy player and that's tempting, but his proclivity for injury will keep most owners from drafting him as such.
13. Rasheed Wallace - Detroit Pistons
Age: 32 Height: 6'11'' Weight: 230 School: North Carolina Years: 12 Role: Starting PF
Rasheed is hardly a consolation prize at power forward. Yes, he rebounds poorly for his size (just 6.8 per game last year), but his combination of three-point shooting and blocked shots is unique at power forward. Among power forward-eligible players last season, only Shawn Marion and Dirk Nowitzki joined Sheed to average over one block and one three-pointer per game. Yet Sheed blocked only seven less shots than Marion and hit 59 more threes. And he blocked 47 more shots and hit 45 more threes than Dirk. Sheed will continue to stroke it from behind the arc in Flip Saunders' offense, opening up the lane for Billups and newcomer Flip Murray. Wallace's defense is a constant in his game, averaging a steal per game to go along with his blocks. Now that Ben Wallace is gone, Sheed will need to be more of a leader. Time will tell if he reverts to his tantrum-throwing ways.
Bottom Line: Draft Rasheed for his points, blocks, and threes. You'll need to take care of rebounding and field goal percentage elsewhere if you select Wallace, but his unique skill set is a valuable one for fantasy owners.
14. David West - New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Age: 26 Height: 6'9'' Weight: 253 School: Xavier Years: 3 Role: Starting PF
Last season David West went from being an un-drafted afterthought to one of the best waiver wire pickups of the year. With a smooth mid-range jumper, the ability to drive left or right and an excellent free throw stroke, David West is going to be a solid scorer in the league. His post-up game still needs refinement, and he can stand some improvement as a rebounder, but he still brings a lot to the fantasy table. After being dinged up and underplayed his first two seasons, West flourished with the running, up-and-down style the Hornets employed with Chris Paul at the point. He averaged a team-high 17.1 points, 7.4 rebounds, 0.8 steals and 0.9 blocks on 51.2 percent shooting from the field and 84.3 percent from the stripe. West is a good bet to repeat these numbers, though Tyson Chandler could take some rebounds away from his teammate and the free throw percentage could slip back to the 80 percent range.
Bottom Line: West is a solid choice at power forward. He is a consistent scorer, scoring in single digits only six games out of seventy four last season. His percentages are top notch, and he even helps a little on defense. His biggest weakness is rebounding, but if you put the right players around him, he will not hurt your team.
15. Charlie Villanueva - Milwaukee Bucks
Age: 21 Height: 6'11'' Weight: 240 School: Connecticut Years: 1 Role: Starting PF
Many criticized the Raptors for using their seventh overall pick in the 2005 NBA Draft on Charlie Villanueva, and fantasy owners largely stayed away from him until the end of their drafts. Those who picked him up were pleasantly surprised. Charlie averaged 13.0 points, 6.4 rebounds and 0.9 threes on 46.3 percent from the field and 70.6 from the line. Though Villanueva had his up and down moments during the season, he showed tremendous potential, including a 48-point explosion against his new team on March 26. He is a versatile scorer with three-point range to complement solid post moves and a good first step. Villanueva will crash the boards as well. In his last 26 games, he averaged 8.3 rebounds. His game high for last year was 18 on April 2. His assist numbers weren't spectacular, but Charlie is an excellent passer. He needs to work on his defense, but with his length and mobility, he could develop into a solid shot-blocker.
Bottom Line: Villanueva creates match-up problems for opposing defenses with his length and range. His scoring and rebounding will improve as he gets more consistent. To take the next step in fantasy ball, he will need to work on his defensive numbers, especially blocks. There is every reason to believe Villanueva is player on the rise. He's a great value pick in the middle rounds.
Centers.
1. Yao Ming - Houston Rockets
Age: 25 Height: 7'6'' Weight: 310 School: None Years: 4 Role: Starting C
With his superior size and talent, one would expect Yao Ming to be the most dominant center in the league. And from February through early April, when a broken left foot ended his season, he was. Many have questioned Yao's competitiveness and desire, but it was injuries more than effort that held Yao back last season. His numbers improved in most categories for the fourth straight season. Yao averaged 18.3 points, 8.4 boards and 2.0 blocks on 55.2 percent from the floor and 78.2 percent from the line in 2004-05. Last season he averaged 22.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.7 blocks on 51.9 percent from the floor and a stellar 85.3 percent from the line. Aside from an improved assertiveness on offense the other explanation for Yao's continued improvement is the number of minutes spent on the floor. In 2004-05 he averaged just over 30 minutes a game.
His penchant for the weak foul kept him off the floor. Last season, Yao lowered his fouls (from 3.8 to 3.4 per game) and improved to 34.2 minutes per game. As he matures and his superstar status is solidified, the fouls will be far more in Yao's favor than against. It is his free throw shooting that really separates Yao from the competition. He was best shooting center from the charity stripe last year, and his 5.9 made free throws per game were also the best at his position. The only question mark on Yao is his broken left foot. He's had ankle and toe surgery on his left foot, and this is the second time he has broken it. The latest reports have the foot healing ahead to schedule. This is good news, but fantasy owners have to be aware that with this history of injuries they could potentially be drafting Bill Walton instead of the best center in the game.
Bottom Line: He is getting better and better and so long as he can avoid the injury bug, he will stand head and shoulders above the other centers in the league on the stat sheet as well as on the floor.
2. Amare Stoudemire - Phoenix Suns
Age: 23 Height: 6'10'' Weight: 245 School: Cypress Creek (HS) Years: 4 Role: Starting C
He's back. After a season lost to microfracture surgery on his left knee, Amare looks ready to reclaim the mantle as one of the most dominant big men in the NBA. He played pain-free in the Suns' summer league squad and showed some new wrinkles to his game as well. Amare is best known for his vicious dunks, after all, Stoudemire scored 26.0 points per game on a ridiculous 56 percent from the floor in his last full season in 2004-05. This summer he has shown more range and greater comfort with his jumper. Even more troubling to opposing defenders, Stoudemire is working on driving to his left. While he was near impossible to stop even when defenders knew he was driving right, imagine how much more dangerous he could be if he can go to his off-hand reliably. Granted summer league competition isn't the same as facing NBA players and Amare didn't show his trademark explosiveness around the rim, but his willingness to develop new aspects of his game bodes well for the coming season. So long as the knee holds up and he regains his former lift, Amare should be in for some monster numbers. After all, in addition to Steve Nash's pinpoint passes, Amare will also benefit from the great court vision of his frontcourt mate, Boris Diaw.
Bottom Line: When healthy Stoudemire is a sure-fire first rounder and could easily be the top center in the game. Given that his health has been upbeat this off-season, Amare is worthy of a first round pick again. However, you may be able to get him a little later if your league mates are wary of his left knee.
Update: Ouch, Amare has already pulled himself from two practices early in training camp. Not the news we wanted to hear from a potential first rounder coming off of knee surgery. He’s clearly not right yet, and until he proves otherwise, he’ll remain a huge injury risk for 2006-07.
3. Brad Miller - Sacramento Kings
Age: 30 Height: 7'0'' Weight: 261 School: Purdue Years: 8 Role: Starting C
Brad Miller will continue to bring great joy to his fantasy owners. Last year, despite predictions that Miller's numbers would suffer with the additions of Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Bonzi Wells and Ron Artest, Big Brad just kept rolling. Miller averaged 15 points, 7.8 rebounds, 4.7 assists, which is just under a block and steal a game on 49.5 percent shooting from the field and 82.8 percent from the line. Only his rebounds and defensive stats slipped from the previous season. And he added a three-point shot his repertoire, connecting 34 times from downtown. If his numbers were to remain the same, Miller would still be one of the best centers in game. It's his free throw shooting and position-best assists that distinguish him among his peers in the pivot. When you get guard-like contributions from a center in these categories, it allows you greater flexibility when assembling the rest of your roster. And it's not as if Miller's other numbers hurt you in any way.
Bottom Line: With great percentages and a guaranteed four assists from the center spot, Brad Miller is one of the best values in the game. Since he won’t hurt you anywhere and is very solid everywhere, Brad Miller makes for a tremendous fantasy pick. Quality starting centers are always at a premium, so be sure to grab Miller early on in fantasy drafts.
4. Shaquille O’Neal - Miami Heat
Age: 34 Height: 7'1'' Weight: 325 School: LSU Years: 14 Role: Starting C
At 34 years of age, Shaquille O’Neal is starting to slow down. The Heat are officially Dwyane Wade's team now and Shaq played in only 59 games last season—just two more than Yao Ming. Even with the injury problems and inevitable decline that comes with age, when Shaq is on the court, he’s going to put up numbers. Scoring 20 points with 9.2 boards, 1.9 assists, 0.4 steals and 1.8 blocks on 60 percent shooting from the field, Shaq is most everything you want out of a fantasy center. He’s polished down low and can either overpower a defender or use a nice little post move to get to the hoop. On the defensive end, he is on the decline (his 1.8 blocks last season were the second lowest of his career), but you can still expect him to get you almost two blocks per game. He’ll kill you from the line as he is unlikely to see the north side of 50 percent again in his career. The only way you can be assured of not finishing last in FT percentage is if you can surround him with guys who get to the line a ton and shoot a great percentage like Corey Maggette or Allen Iverson. Because of this weakness, Shaq is a lot more valuable in head-to-head leagues than rotisserie. You can lose one category a week and still be dominant in head-to-head; this is much more difficult in roto leagues.
Bottom Line: Many fantasy players will have a strict “no Shaq” policy because of his poor free-throw shooting. It’s a strategy that may work but sometimes people forget that with Shaq you’ll be low in FT percentage but near the top of the league in FG percentage. It’s a double-edged sword so if you’re comfortable with taking the hit in free throws, grab Shaq and enjoy his dominant production in points, boards and blocks. And don't forget your league's scoring format; what's good for roto may not be good for head-to-head.
5. Ben Wallace - Chicago Bulls
Age: 31 Height: 6'9'' Weight: 240 School: Virginia Union Years: 10 Role: Starting C
This off-season Wallace left the Detroit Pistons to join the division rival Chicago Bulls. While his uniform will have changed, his game will not. You’ll never draft Wallace for his offense; after all, he scored just 7.3 points a game last season. What you will draft Wallace for is his dominance in rebounds, steals and blocks. It is important to note that blocks and steals are supplied by fewer players than other categories. Last year, just ten players averaged both one block and one steal or better per game. Wallace was one of only two centers to do so—Marcus Camby was the other—putting up 2.2 blocks and 1.8 steals a game. The blocks were down from previous seasons (his career average is 2.3), but the steals matched a career high. He’s still a monster on the glass, ranking fifth in the league in boards with 11.8 a game, though last season marked the fourth consecutive year in which his rebounding numbers have declined. Still, you can count on Big Ben to average double digit boards next year. Like Shaq, he’ll hurt you with a sub-50 percent free throw percentage, but since he doesn’t attempt nearly as many free throws (3.6 a game to Shaq's 8.0), it won’t sting as much. While Chicago may regret signing Wallace to an expensive four-year deal a few years down the road as he ages and continues to decline, you can feel very good about selecting him this year for your team.
Bottom Line: Boards, blocks, and steals. Anything else you get out of Wallace is just gravy.
6. Marcus Camby - Denver Nuggets
Age: 32 Height: 6'11'' Weight: 235 School: Massachusetts Years: 10 Role: Starting C
Always an injury risk, Marcus Camby is perennially one of the great draft day paradoxes in fantasy basketball. On one hand, he is Ben Wallace with offense; on the other, he's an injury waiting to happen. Yes, he played in just 56 games last year. But, man oh man, what he did in those 56 games. The numbers speak for themselves: 12.8 points, 11.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 3.3 blocks and a respectable 46.5 percent from the field and a tolerable 71.2 percent from the line. Despite missing 26 games (ten more than the previous season), Marcus still blocked the most shots of any center in the league and grabbed the fifth-most rebounds among true centers. In rotisserie leagues, it’s the final tally that counts - not the averages - so keep that in mind when looking at Camby. Despite the legitimate injury concerns, Camby has too much potential to ignore in the fantasy world. Whenever he’s on the court, he’s a double-double machine who is solid in the percentages and can contribute heavily in rebounds, blocks, and steals. He also turns the ball over very little (just 1.6 per game) compared to other top centers. It shouldn’t be a problem for Camby to post similar numbers if he can play in 50 or more games. If he does that, you will have one the best centers in the game.
Bottom Line: What makes him so provocative for the fantasy owner is that Marcus typically slips in drafts because of injury concerns. Don’t go too early for him as he’s unlikely to play a full season, but be ready to pounce as he is unlikely to last as long as he did last year. Head-to-head players can drop Camby down a few spots in their rankings because a few missed weeks at the wrong time can really hurt you in that format.
7. Zydrunas Ilgauskas - Cleveland Cavaliers
Age: 31 Height: 7'3'' Weight: 260 School: None Years: 7 Role: Starting C
There are probably some newer fantasy players out there who can't remember when Big Z was one of fantasy’s most injury-prone players. There is good reason for this. Ilgauskas has missed only ten games in the last four seasons. In addition to being reliable, Ilgauskas has turned himself into one of the better centers in the league. Last season, he averaged 15.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, 0.5 steals and 1.7 blocks a game. He shoots extremely well from the floor (50.6 percent) and just kills it at the line with 83.4 percent shooting -- good for second best (behind Yao) at the center position. While Ilgauskas' numbers dipped slightly from 2004-05 to last year, his numbers shouldn't change much this season, which makes him a great option for you at center.
Bottom Line: Draft with confidence. Big Z is still one of the best in the business at center. He’s like a mini-Yao Ming that can be had a round or two later in the draft.
8. Mehmet Okur - Utah Jazz
Age: 27 Height: 6'11'' Weight: 249 School: None Years: 4 Role: Starting C
Mehmet Okur was a classic sleeper last season. He was available in the middle rounds of most drafts yet proved to be one of the most valuable pivot men in fantasy. His numbers made those who passed him by kick themselves for it. We always knew Memhet could score well from outside, but many questioned his willingness to bang inside for rebounds. Okur confirmed our faith in the former and answered our questions about the latter. He averaged 18 points, 9.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists and nearly one made three per game. It is this final stat that makes Okur special. Only a handful of center-eligible players (Raef LaFrentz, Rasheed Wallace and to a lesser extent, Brad Miller) can help your team in three-pointers, and Okur is the best rebounder of them all. Even when Carlos Boozer returned to the Jazz, Okur kept hitting the glass. So don’t expect a decline this year. Okur also shot a solid 46 percent from the field and 78 percent from the line. His one weakness is in the defensive stats. Okur doesn't get you the blocks you'd like from a center (0.9 per game), so if you select him, you'll need to bolster your blocks with other players.
Bottom Line: Okur is a great choice at center once the top guys at the position have been taken. In fact, he has been healthier than most of the top centers and averages similar numbers in scoring and rebounding. Yes, the blocks are a little light but what he doesn't block he makes up for in threes.
9. Chris Kaman - Los Angeles Clippers
Age: 24 Height: 7'0'' Weight: 265 School: Central Michigan Years: 3 Role: Starting C
Young, gifted and blond. That pretty well describes Chris Kaman as he enters his fourth professional season. While he might be best known for his long flowing locks, his owners from last year know how valuable this guy can be to a fantasy team. Despite playing in a front-court alongside Elton Brand, who put up career-best numbers, Kaman was a force in the paint. He has more athleticism and agility than many realize, and he gives a good effort on both ends of the floor. His numbers have improved every year, and he is a good bet to average a double-double this season. Last year, he gave his owners 11.9 points, 9.6 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game on 52.3 percent shooting from the field and 77 percent from the free throw line. Those are stats you can feel very good about.
Bottom Line: Kaman is more than just solid as a fantasy center. He is a skilled athlete capable of big numbers. He will have peaks and valleys throughout the season, but in the end, his totals will compare favorably with players selected ahead of him your drafts.
10. Nenad Krstic - New Jersey Nets
Age: 24 Height: 7'0'' Weight: 240 School: None Years: 2 Role: Starting C
For the second season in a row, Nenad Krstic turned in a strong second half and solid playoff numbers. Two years ago, in his rookie campaign, Krstic's post-All-Star numbers were 53.4 percent shooting from the field, 75 percent from the line, 13.6 points, and 6.3 boards. And last year they got even better: 53.2 percent from the field, 78.3 percent from the line, 14.8 points, and 7.7 rebounds. If Krstic can put together a full season of those kinds of numbers, his owners will have themselves a very nice center for whom they didn't need to overreach. With good scoring, solid rebounding and excellent percentages, Krstic's only obvious weakness is his shot-blocking. For the second year, he tallied just 0.8 per game. While he will never be a big time shot blocker, he should get more than a block a game a few times during his career with his long arms.
Bottom Line: Krstic should continue to improve as his teammates trust him more and more. We'd like to see more rebounds and blocks from the big man and it is reasonable to expect that he will improve in these areas to support his double-digit scoring and fine shooting percentages.
11. Andrew Bogut - Milwaukee Bucks
Age: 21 Height: 7'0'' Weight: 245 School: Utah Years: 1 Role: Starting C/PF
Bogut showed promise in his rookie campaign, but his numbers were not what one would expect from a number one pick. He averaged 9.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 0.8 blocks on 53.3 percent shooting from the field and 62.9 percent at the line in 82 games. This display of mediocrity could work in your favor as the big Aussie is likely to slide a bit in drafts. Bogut averaged 28.6 minutes per game last year. This year he will be in the low to mid-30s. With more minutes comes more production. Look for the Bucks to run more plays for Bogut, in particular, exploiting a potentially devastating inside-outside game with Michael Redd. Now that Jamaal Magloire has been traded, Bogut has the center spot to himself. He will be playing alongside another skilled bigman in Charlie Villanueva, whose passing is sorely underappreciated. It is not unreasonable to think that Bogut could average a double-double this season.
Bottom Line: Bogut will improve on all of his numbers from his rookie campaign. With Redd bombing from outside, things should open up on the interior for Bogut. As he gets more used to the speed of the game and learns where his teammates like the ball, Bogut's superior passing skills should translate to good assist numbers.
12. Tyson Chandler - New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Age: 24 Height: 7'1'' Weight: 235 School: Dominguez (HS) Years: 5 Role: Starting C
Chandler gave us another tantalizing yet ultimately unsatisfying season last year. He came out of gate very slow, but then in February, Tyson seemed to remember that he possessed telescoping long arms and began grabbing every rebound in site. However, Chandler's offensive game remained stuck in first gear all season, and his numbers suggest that he could be turning into a one category player like Jeff Foster. Chandler averaged 5.3 points, 9.0 rebounds, 0.5 steals, and 1.3 blocks on 56.5 percent shooting from the field and a career-low 50.3 percent from the line. Part of the problem was that Chandler's offensive struggles forced early substitutions. He averaged just 26.8 minutes per game, depressing all of his numbers. If they are to improve, he will need more PT. There is good reason to think could happen now that he is with the Hornets. With Chris Paul, Peja Stojakovic and David West leading the way, the team doesn't need Chandler's offense, just an active body going after rebounds and blocking shots. Letting him focus on what he does best should improve his confidence and his all-around numbers.
Bottom Line: Chandler should improve his rebounding and shot-blocking from last year with increased minutes. While he is unlikely to become an offensive force, he could see a rise in scoring as teams focus their defenses on the Hornets' more prolific scorers and leave Chandler to roam around the rim for easy dunks.
Update: Early reports have Chris Paul and Tyson Chandler connecting on a number of alley-oops in scrimmages. Paul is ecstatic about playing with Chandler, whose speed, length and hops make him an ideal partner for fast break finishes and backdoor plays in coach Byron Scott's Princeton style offense. Look for an uptick in Chandler's scoring this year if he and his point guard can maintain their connection.
13. Zaza Pachulia - Atlanta Hawks
Age: 22 Height: 6'11'' Weight: 240 School: None Years: 3 Role: Starting C
After receiving less than 20 minutes in each of his first two seasons, Zaza Pachulia took over as the starting center for the Hawks last year. This fashionable sleeper pick did not disappoint those who took a chance on him late in drafts. The Hawks are thin at center once again this year, and he will be guaranteed playing time. In 31.4 minutes per game, Pachulia averaged 11.7 points, 7.9 rebounds, 0.5 blocks and 1.1 steals on 45.1 percent shooting from the field and 73.5 percent from the line. True, his blocks are a weakness, but Zaza's 89 steals were the second most by a center last season, so he isn't a bust defensively. He is also a hardnosed rebounder unlike some European centers. Look for Zaza too produce similar numbers this season.
Bottom Line: Zaza will go earlier this year than he did last year but is still a good value because of his points, boards, and steals.
14. Samuel Dalembert - Philadelphia 76ers
Age: 25 Height: 6'11'' Weight: 250 School: Seton Hall Years: 4 Role: Starting/Backup C
Samuel Dalembert would be ranked higher if he didn't disappear from the stat sheet for long stretches as he has over the past two seasons. Last year many of us expected a breakout season from the Haitian Sensation. It didn't happen. Injuries got in the way and even when Dalembert returned to health, he was unable to earn the full confidence of coach Mo Cheeks. He lost the starting center job to Steven Hunter at the end of February. He has all the ability in the world, as can be seen in his 160 blocked shots, but has yet to put together a complete season. With Iverson and Webber the first and second options on offense and Andre Iguodala primed to take more shots, it is hard to see how Dalembert will improve his scoring significantly. Even if he doesn't, his superior shot blocking skills and strong rebounding (8.2 per game) make him a fantasy asset.
Bottom Line: Don’t expect a breakout season like many did last year. After all, there is a chance he won't start the season as the Sixers' starter at center. Instead, target Dalembert as a decent second center who will help you excel in blocked shots and fortify your rebounding numbers.
15. Kwame Brown - Los Angeles Lakers
Age: 24 Height: 6'11'' Weight: 250 School: Glynn Academy (HS) Years: 5 Role: Starting C
A look at Kwame's averages (7.4 points, 6.6 rebounds) from last season might make you question this ranking. But look more closely. When Kwame was named the Lakers' starting center in mid-March after a Chris Mihm injury, his production took off. From March 14 to the end of the season, Brown averaged 12.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, 0.7 blocks on 59.2 percent shooting from the field and 58.8 percent from the line. Brown returns as the starting center and should put up season numbers in line with those he posted in the last 18 games from last season. The question mark is playing time. With Chris Mihm coming back and Andrew Bynum in the wings, Brown will have to come out of the gate strongly in November to hold his minutes. Of course, Mihm could be traded and clear up any concerns about PT.
Bottom Line: Kwame makes for a nice option in two-center leagues. His numbers won't blow you away, but he will get his share of double-doubles through the season. The knocks against him are his poor shot-blocking and his free throw shooting, which has fallen from 68.3 percent in 2003-04 to 54.5 percent last year.
Hope I helped : )
2007-09-20 19:42:18
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answer #6
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answered by Anonymous
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