If the divorce rate is 56% but I am 99% sure that I and my wife won't separate what is the chance that we?

Question

will be divorced?

Answer 1

The answer is 56%. Though nowadays it is closer to 65% like another poster said. Your 99% assuredness means nothing unless it is based on a fact and not a feeling. I suspect it is based upon a feeling. It seems like this is a 'base rates neglect' question. Am I right?

Answer 2

I really can't do the calculations right now, without additional information.... but people don't realize that if the divorce rate is 56% today... it doesn't mean that you have a 56% chance that you will divorce. The reason why, is that this % is always changing, so you have to take into consideration the rate of acceleration that our divorce rates are increasing to provide an estimated future %.

Answer 3

You're right. The divorce rate is about 50%. The stats also show that an additional 25% would get divorced but wont because of kids or money. So, you success rate is roughly 25%

Answer 4

I'm guessing 57% (56% + 1%), or 1%, and that the odds of divorce increase from there if one or both of you are or will participate in lying, cheating, and or abuse.
I think it also depends on what your wife really feels and thinks too and how you treat her in general (not just not doing the above wrong things, but really going out of your way to take good care of her so that she will be inclined to reciprocate and you two keep the marriage going).

Answer 5

Statistically, you odds are almost even.The divorce rate is beginning to decline somewhat. I feel the same way about my marriage, but as a family law paralegal, I must say, you and I may both be wide eyed optimists. You'll have a better chance of staying married, if you remember to put the other person first, i.e., my wife and I

Answer 6

I dont know where you got your statistic unless that includes gay marriage, but the actual heterosexual divorce rate is more like 65%, about 1% of gay marriages have ended in divorce.
I would say you and your wife have about a 65% chance of getting divorced. Unless she kills you, then you have 0% chance of divorce and she'll cash in the insurance.

Answer 7

Hopefully you will stay together.
Even though I am divorced after being married 21 years, I believe in the sanctity of marriage.
I wish you all the best, only piece of advice is never stop working at your marriage, it's a work in progress, the minute you stop, then the rot sets in.

Answer 8

love can't be calculated by percentages and numbers. I honestly don't even get why people figure out the "rate" of marriage success or failure. Each couple's love is soley based on themselves....though I think a lot of divorces are due to the fact that 2 people meet, fall madly in love, marry off of that, however, they never had the long term love to renew their love and last it through life.

Answer 9

Your chances are 99% that you will get divorced. Reason being you already have doubts and the rest of the statistics aren't in your favor. There should be no doubt and you should never question the possibility since you made the commitment.

Answer 10

If you have found a good woman, there's a 99% chance that your marriage won't end in divorce.

If you have found a feminist, such as a feminist woman that posts on G&WS, then there's 99% chance that it will end in divorce. She'll also probably accuse you of abuse, rape, and misogyny -- all while hypocritically abusing you physically and verbally, financially raping you, and practicing misandry against you.