Is it possible to predict when a supernova will happen?

Question

If so will we see one visible to the naked eye in the next 50 years?

johnlittleseed...yes a supernova http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supernova or did you not know such a thing existed???

Answer 1

maybe

Answer 2

Definitely not on a precise scale and probably not even on a scale being able to tell within 50 years, 100, 1000, etc. It would be very hard to predict since stars can live for many billions of years. Also this makes it less of chance of being able to see one by just the naked eye of just our known sight of the stars. Astronomers have seen supernovas but only through telescopes pointed in a direction of MANY stars. Also making this harder to predict is the time that supernova takes to reach the earth. Since a star maybe say 50 light years away, it would be harder to predict since it would take 50 years for that supernova sight to travel to earth from when it actually happened. Your best bet is just to search online for some pictures which is probably the best we can get to seeing a supernova right now. Hope that helps

Answer 3

Supernovas only happen to very massive stars; it's thought that they become more unstable as they get older, and that there are signs that they *will* go supernova, however, it's like predicting Earthquakes. They know one is expected, or even likely, but if it happens today or 1000 years from now, we have no way of knowing (at least, not yet.)

When metals begin appearing in the spectral analysis of stars, it's thought they are beginning to get close to the end of their lives, but how close is anyone's guess.

Answer 4

If Sirius replaced into mass sufficient (say 8 circumstances the mass of the sunlight) to flow SN it can be a sort 2. A supernova launch approximately 10^40 two Joules as radiation interior the preliminary burst. (that's approximately 10000th of the entire potential!) At 9 easy years this could consequence in a burst of roughly 10^25 Joules in keeping with sq. metre over some seconds. this could be somewhat undesirable! the 1st factor you're able to see is the entire sky flow somewhat vibrant blue, this could be accompanied by ability of the shortcoming of you retina and dying. One area of the earth's finished environment could be stripped off in a particularly short quantity of time. After that issues could flow down hill! curiously Sirius is a binary and this is secondary is a white dwarf. this is probable that as quickly as Sirius enters the huge branch there will be some mass flow between the two whihc may be sufficient for the seconadry to undergo a sort 1a supernova.

Answer 5

Well, yes and no. There are some stars which are "suspected" of being supernova progenitors on the verge of going boom. We think they could go "any millenium now" which, in astronomical time scale, is quite fast.
(millenium = 1000 years)

But not accurately enough to point to one and say: check that one, it will go within 50 years.

Wiki has this interesting sentence:
"Several large stars within the Milky Way have been suggested as possible supernovae within the next few thousand to hundred million years."

The closest one to Earth (IK Pegasi) may explode in a mere "several million years".

Sorry, that is the best we can do for now.

Answer 6

No - any stars likely to go supernova are so incredibly far away we know virtually nothing about them. We can only see the effect once it's happened.

EDIT: Excuse me people, he's asking whether it's possible to PREDICT when a supernova will happen, not suspect it. The answer, therefore, is NO. There are one or two that MAY and are being watched, but that's as far as science takes us at the moment.

And our sun will never go supernova. It's not big enough.

Answer 7

I don't believe there is at the present day. These things are so far away the first indications we get are gamma ray or x-ray bursts, which move at light speed, of course. However, as our telescopic advancements get more and more refined (for example, soon we will be able to detect water-bearing exo-planets), we might study stars like Betelgeuse, a red giant star in its carbon phase, ready to pop, or has already gone supernova 599 years ago, in which case we'd see it as a supernova (even by day) next year. Also, somebody mentioned Eta Carinae, one of the most massive and active stars in our galaxy that is quite possibly in its death throes.

I don't know of any gamma or x-ray bursts that are triggered before the nova occurs, but there may be other indications, or possibly being able to precisely "weigh" how much mass a white dwarf accretes from its binary companion and know exactly when it reaches 1.4 solar masses. Still, a blink of an eye in stellar time could be 10,000 years, so we may never have the ability to predict supernovae. But in the esoteric field of astrophysics, you must never say never.

Answer 8

its possible that you could see one in the next 50 years. if you can see the star clearly you could see the super nova. supernovas are uncommon though, and not many stars that are close enough for us to see them will o supernova any time soon...we think. in all reality the north star could have exploded years and years ago, and the light would not have reached us yet so we would have no clue. so just star at the north star for the new few billino years, eventually it will explode.

and its hard to predict them for far away stars. we had to observe our sun for a long time to see when it will die and cool into a white dwarf (our sun will not go supernova) so it would be very hard to predict for a very far away star, near impossible.

Answer 9

It is difficult to determine as here we are involved with very massive stars. The good question is, if Stars become supernova why dont all the Stars become also supernovae.

Answer 10

If it is your Sun then YES. Stars go through a standard process and if we were orbiting a sun about to go bang you can bet we would have a forcasting department studying it.

"Well, its a nice day on planet Zarg and the probability of a supernova today is 83.25%" Lets hope its not another hot one.... URGHH BANG... (but they would be long days!)

However when you look out into the cosmos you are looking at EVERY star and then the bangs are effectivley random noise. Especially since the suns that go bang are generally invisible prior to the effect so we can not see them to plan their probability of explosion until after they explode.

Answer 11

yes but all of our calculations are off by a ratio of the distance in light years they are from our planet. to say a star is 200,000 light years away mean that light takes 200,000 years to travel from here to there and vice versa. this means that any supernova we "see" will have occurred about 200,000 years ago.