Is it rational to rely on past experience as a guide to the future?

Question

If so, why, and under what circumstances?







question from:
http://ww w.lsa.umich.edu/philosophy/undergrads/

Answer 1

I dont know about rational but it would be wise.

Answer 2

I think relying on past experience may be the only real way we have to gauge how to go into the future, and what to expect from the future.

We can usually determine what will occur in the future based on past evidence. If A has happened repeatedly in the past because of B, it is likely that A will happen again if B once again exists or occurs in the future. The history of the correlation between A and B becomes a reasonable assumption of truth.

If every time I have placed my hand in a fire, I am burned, it's safe to assume that if I place my hand in a fire in the future, I will again be burned.

If someone asks me for money 3 times, and never repays me, I can generally assume that if I am asked for money by this person in the future, they are not going to repay me.

It's a matter of gathering information and using it to come to relatively safe conclusions. There will always be the possibility for exceptions to any rule or history, but I think it is logical - and therefor safe and wise - to rely on past experience as a guide to the future. Without doing so we would be wandering about in a rather blind and ignorant state, and it would be very hard to make any progress, both individually and in groups.

Answer 3

It's absolutely rational to rely on past experience. When you've gone through a situation, you have time to think and reflect. You can analyze what you did well and what you could have done better. You can refine and adapt systems so they work better the next time.

That being said, you have to go into any situation realizing the circumstances are not exactly the same - even if it's just your approach based on past experience. You have to flexible and willing to adapt when things don't go as planned. But experience can also help here.

Once you've experienced a similar situation a few times with different variables you know what to expect and you also have a better idea of what variables matter and which ones don't.

Book learning has it's value, but you're always seeing things through the authors eyes and the variables he/she focused on may not be the same as you need to focus on.

Answer 4

I guess it would depend on how we viewed our past experience and how we allowed it to effect us.

If we allowed past experiences to effect us negatively than the effects could be harmful and devastating... Than the answer would be no.

If we took from each experience the lessons and the things that could make our future better and more positive... Than the answer would be yes.

Every experience we have in life we take with us into our future. How we view them, negatively or positively will determine our out look on life, our reasoning and the paths and directions we choose to take in our future.

Everything we do in our lives are a result of a choice we have made, be that choice a conscious choice or a subconscious choice, we are all making choices. We win or loose by the way we choose.

Answer 5

One who goes through life not learning from past experiences
is one who either bangs head against wall a lot, or kicks ones own self in the a$$. It seems very irrational to continue with this type of behavior.

Having said that, then it would seem rational that when faced with a decision to make concerning something that may occur in the future, your reaction is likely to be based on the results of past events.

Answer 6

That's one of the ways we know how to make sense of everything. If we couldn't do that the world would seem chaotic and unknowable. The laws of physics probably wouldn't work either because it's one of the ways that we come to be able to judge things.
Why we can do this is proved by our ability to be able to have so many expectations on how things will act in our environment. Of course, the circumstances these would be in would have to be the normal situations that we have experience of to be able to feel confident in making these assumptions. Exceptional circumstances would probably be when you take any mind altering drug, shock, stress, fear or in dreams.

Answer 7

I believe it is the very definition, not to mention the only method aside from prophecy or premonition. The tricky part is learning the proper lesson from the first experience.

Even realizing that not changing your behavior results in never changing your future is a product of relying on past experience, maybe not yours, but someones.

Answer 8

In neuro linguistic programming there is a saying - "if you always do what you've always done, you'll always get what you always got"

It may sound simplistic but it is true. So,if you have always enjoyed your life up to now, carry on using what you have learned. If not then there is another nlp saying for you - "if what you're doing isn't working for you, do ANYTHING else".

You are in control of your own destiny, do not be afraid to make choices or mistakes. You can learn important lessons from both.

Answer 9

Not to the extent that it rules the future. If so, we become a closed individual. We go through life learning. But there are times, it is best to leave the accumulated knowledge behind so as not to taint the new lesson/information presented before us.

Answer 10

Usually, when one has a bad experience, they tend to avoid making the same choices the next time they're faced with such a dilemma. I'd say take chances, but don't make the same mistake twice, or it'll hit you twice as hard.