In all truth, what is the actual likelihood the government will institute a draft?

Question

Please explain in detail and cite sources. Thank you.

Answer 1

Not a bad question. I was drafted during the Viet Nam War and was one of the last to be drafted before it ended. I have very mixed feeling about a draft. I think many of the others who said the likelyhood is small are correct because there is little political will for a draft. Neither the rich or the middle class want it so the working class and the poor must serve in an all volunteer military at least in the enlisted ranks. Historically a large professional military is very dangerous. The reason I have mixed feelings is because when I was in we had a mix of American society in the military and as a result we had a military that had to pay attention to the larger society (at least a little bit). With an all volunteer or professional military combined with an imperial presidency it is historically a recipe for a loss of liberty and freedoms for the masses. On the other hand I don't think we are in much danger of being invaded by anyone else and don't really need the large military we currently have. We currently spend more money on the military then the next 10 highest governments combined. We could probably bring many of our troops home close some overseas operations and reduce the defense budget and rebuild infrastructure with the savings (such as bridges). The draft can always be held in reserve if there is a national disaster of major proportions (which is what it would take to institute a draft).

Answer 2

taken from objector.org

Is a draft likely?

There's no way to know for certain. While it is possible, we believe it is not probable. Let's hope for the best but be prepared for the worst!

By targeting low-income youth with a high-pressure sales pitch and inflated promises, the military has kept up its supply of ground troops. And the Pentagon now relies heavily on the Reserve and National Guard, mobilizing such units in every deployment.

The SSS, on the other hand, is set up for the sort of massive long-term war that hasn't happened since Vietnam. Even in such an event, the Pentagon doesn't expect to propose a new draft. The SSS isn't even designed for the "health workers draft" occasionally threatened by Congress (in the face of the military's continued shortage of medical professionals).

Instead, the Selective Service System is so inconsequential to Pentagon planners that in recent years, some of the most pro-military members of Congress have voted to shut it down, in an effort to cut government waste. However, other politicians have chosen to wrap themselves in the SSS flag by voting to continue its funding.

Answer 3

I've got no reliable sources, but the chances are ZERO. Bush is on his last leg with Congress. They are tired of his spending, an popular opinion is turning against the war. People are ready for the Iraqis to handle thier own problems. Any senator that supported the draft would be signing his death warrant, as far as a career in politics goes.

http://www.militaryspot.com/military-draft.htm

This is a pro-military site that basically says there will be no draft. They talk about the 'back door draft', or the policy of extending the service of folks already enlisted.

Answer 4

I think the odds of the government instituting a draft are slim. The public would not approve of such action and the Democratic Congress would be unwilling to take that action.

Answer 5

Not highly. The only way I see it happening is in two ways.

1. The US suffers a devastating attack such as a nuke in Manhatten and the US responds by beefing up the military in response.

2. The US military suffers a catastrophic attack that results in the loss of a large amount of military personnel, in response the military urges the government to reinstitue the draft and they do.

Answer 6

Very slim barring an attack a major attack on US Soil like Pearl Harbor there will be no draft, mainly because it would be hard to run through the senate and each and every state legislature in the US.

Answer 7

Senator from New York try to get the draft started again but was defeated by the Republican Majority. Now, with the Democrats in the Majority a draft is possible.

Answer 8

I've already heard the Democrats say if they get in,
that's exactly what will happen. They are for it. Gee,
that won't go over very well with liberals and hippies.
Remember, it was the Republicans that did away with
the draft and installed an all volunteer army.

Answer 9

It depends on whether we attack Iran and how many need to be deployed in Afghanistan and Iraq.