Ichiro Suzuki gets more hits than Pete Rose & Ty Cobb?

Question

True or False?
He averages more than 200 hits per season and shows no sign of slowing down, what do you think?

Answer 1

Nice idea , but no way Jose.
He's too old and entered MLB way too late.
It's too bad his hits in Japan don't count.
A GR8 hitter none the less.

Answer 2

Ichiro-san is a wildcard... there are few good comps for him among the (rather large) player database, so predicting what he will do necessarily comes with huge error bars.

He has a very wiry, muscular, lean physique, somewhat like Rickey Henderson, that may allow him to continue playing at a very high level into his 40s and still be above league-average for several years after that. I would not be surprised to see him play to age 45 (if he wants to), maybe even 50, and be a good bit better than Julio Franco was.

Health is always a concern. If he suffers a bad injury, loses some speed, that will end his career that much sooner. If he becomes more selective at the plate, starts drawing more walks to compensate for fading hitting abilities (muscle twitch speed, vision, coordination), then no, he won't make it, though he could still be a good player for a long time.

I think he will reach 3000 hits in MLB through sheer determination; he will not be denied. From there, it would be six more 200-hit seasons to put Rose on the radar. Would Ichiro have seven more seasons? That would put him at age 47/48... not likely, but not impossible for this particular player.

And consider the pragmatic -- if he reaches 3800, 4000 will be within reach -- and at 4000, Rose is only another 256 away. Who could resist?

So... no, I don't think Ichiro will catch Rose, but I will not be surprised if, around 2021, he does. He is essentially a unique player so predicting firm limits to his career is folly; he will set his own path.

There is no such thing as a sure thing for the Hall, but the only way I foresee Ichiro not becoming the first Japanese elected to Cooperstown is if some fellow countryman expatriates, plays brilliantly in MLB, retires before Ichiro is done, and gets elected while Suzuki-san is still gracing the diamonds. And we'll see him get a plaque in the Japan Hall as well.

Answer 3

If you add in his hits from the Japanese leagues he might, but otherwise he doesn't have a chance. To catch Rose it takes a longer career than Ichiro will be able to have. If he hadn't spent all that time playing in Japan he might have a shot at it, but since he got such a late start in MLB there is no way he'll play long enough to get 4,000 hits. That takes 20 years of averaging 200 hits...thats insane even for Ichiro who is one of the best contact hitters the game has ever seen.

Answer 4

If Ichiro would have started his baseball career in MLB, yeah, he'd have a real chance. But he'll be 34 this year so with another, let's say 6 seasons, at his rate of 220 hits a season, he'd still be way short. Maybe 2800 hits or so. And that's phenomenal. Add another 110 runs a season, too.

Ichiro is a great player. He is a treat to watch and he plays hard everyday. I think he'll be the first Japanese player to be admitted to the Hall of Fame. As he should be.

Answer 5

i highly doubt it. although he has had the alltime record in a season for hits and every year seems to get at least 200 if not more but you look at his age , he's 34. Right now he is at 1555 hits and it's taken him 7 years to do this. If he keps up his amazing pace he'll be at 3000 hits at the age of 41. Still over 1200 hits away from ty Cobb and even more away from rose. To pass them he would be playing into his 50's and problay only getting maximum 100 hits a year

Answer 6

No - He is what 33 34? He olny has 1,555 hits!

You cant get over 2,500 hits in a couple of years!

That means Ichiro would need 12-13 200 hit seasons to pass Pete Rose!

Answer 7

I think by the end of his career his combined total between Japan and the major leagues will surpass both Cobb and Rose. It might be time to look at Ichiro as perhaps one of the five greatest hitters in baseball history.

Answer 8

I think he is 33 years old and is only half way to 3000. 4000 hits is out of the question.

He have to continue at his current rate of production for another 12 seasons, or until he is 45 years old.

If he gets to 3000 he will be fortunate. That would still be an amazing total given his late start in MLB.

Answer 9

Highly doubtful. He is 34 yrs old with 1555 hits. If he were to break Pete Roses record he would have to average 200 hits for 13 more years.
Possible, but doubtful. Keeping in mind he started the MLB at 27.
-

Answer 10

I doubt he'll supplant Pete Rose or Ty Cobb. However, he will most likely hit 3,000 for his MLB career. At his current pace, he'll do that by 2014.

Answer 11

He's a solid hitter no doubt but he will not be able to catch the likes of Cobb and Rose.