april 13th 2036, keep that date in your diaries, that is when a 2000 metre long asteroid could hit our planet?

Question

It is going to come within 22,000 miles of Earth in 2029 (one tenth the distance to the moon) but on it's next 7 year orbit it will be on a direct collision course.

99942 Apophis

Message to JB, I have just watched a program about catastrophic asteroids.

Answer 1

Asteroid "99942 Apophis" has a 1 in 5,560 chance of hitting Earth on that day. Don't lose too much sleep though; there's a 99.98% chance everything will be fine.

Answer 2

Apophis is about 350 meters long, not 2,000. Moreover, in order for it to strike the Earth on April 13, 2036, Apophis has to go through a region of space some 600 meters wide on April 13, 2029. The chances of this happening are very slim, but not impossible. If it does strike, it will be the deadliest natural disaster during recorded history, but we have time to either alter it's orbit or at least prepare for the worst. It will not exterminate us off the face of the Earth, instead it will cause total destruction locally or regionally depending on where it strikes, if it strikes at all. Even if it's proven to be on an collision course with Earth, we have time to study the asteroid and take appropriate action. A 2,000 meter long asteroid on the other hand can wipe the human race out for good, especially if it hits the ocean. It will make a massive crater regardless of where it strikes because at 50,000 mph the asteroid will sweep even several miles of sea water aside and plow into the sea floor. The resulting mega-tsunamis, earthquakes, nuclear winter and white hot debris falling all over the world will devastate the enviroment on a scale that will exceed a global nuclear war many times over. If we found one of those on an course that will end in an impact within a year or even 20 years, I doubt we can do anything to stop it. We could be blindsided by a 2,000 meter long asteroid at any time, which is why professional astronomers with the help of amateurs are doing their best to keep close watch for these bringers of death and track their movements. The most dangerous objects are the Aten class asteroids and comets. Both can come our way out of the glare of the Sun, they are hard to see and their orbits are especially unstable and hard to track over time. You have some erroneous information, because although Apophis IS potentially hazardous, an impact with Earth is not imminent. It is of concern, make no mistake about it. But it's not nearly as dangerous as the ones that are out there undetected and on unknown trajectories, one of which that could bring one to Earth with little or no warning.

Answer 3

April 13th 2036

Answer 4

The NEAR Earth project was established in 2004 and fully funded by the federal government as of March, 2007.

With modern technology (which is only going to get better), this project officially run through 5 observatories across the globe can accurately identify and track objects as small as 140 meters in diameter DECADES before they are within proximity of the earth. They are currently tracking 4679 objects under 1 km in diameter and 715 objects over 1 km in diameter, and of these, only 2 are considered to have high priority levels, both of which are over 20 years away.

The project estimates that it is currently tracking 90+% of all objects over 1km in diameter that have any probability of passing within 1.3 AUs (1.0 AU = distance from the earth to the sun) of Earth.

With 10 years notice, our global resources and technology could surely divert any detected object.

SO, the answer to your question is that you are safer now than at ANY time in human history from the threat of a collision event, and realistically, the threat may have been virtually nutrualized altogether!!

So don't worry, be happy!!

Answer 5

I would, except my diary only goes up to December 31 2008. Does that mean that the editors of Quo Vadis diaries know the world is going to end on December 31 2008? Anybody who knows enough Latin to know what "Quo Vadis" means will see that this has at least as much credibility as those ancient Mayans...

[Hint for the Latin-challenged: "Quo vadis?" means "Where are you going?"]

Answer 6

Yep - still August so it would appear it is still the silly season.

They say this EVERY year about now.

What are the odds that following further observation it'll miss us by tens of thousands of miles.

Makes for good headlines though.

Makes a change from Diana though I guess.

Answer 7

thats old news buddy.

actually they say we have a like 1/1000 chance of it hitting us by that time.
those are pretty good odds of survival.

it comes around 2012. We'll launch a ship onto it at that time and track it for its next swing by in 2027.
We'll be concerned at that time, but still require more calculations. I think we'll send another ship at that time for even more calculations.
2036 should be the finally chance. either it hits us or it won't (probably won't)
still contingency plans are already under way to alter its course or destroy it.

dear cosmo.... http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html
"The probability computation is complex and depends on a number of assumptions that are difficult to verify."

only time will tell

Answer 8

Actually the Brits are putting a plan together to redirect it so that it misses Earth and smashes into the planet Mongo finally doing away with the Emperor Ming.

Answer 9

I wouldn't worry, all the city babies will have been attacked by rats by then - just like you say in your video!

Answer 10

I'm more worried about the ones they don't know about than the ones they do.