Why will no one ever hit .400 again?

Question

What are the pirmary reasons people say this. I am not convinced with anything other than "because Ted Williams is better".

The last 30 years the Top hitter from each league has average .350 and the 30 years from 1932 to 1962 (excluding Ted Williams year of 1941) hit .351 on average, so I'm not buying some of these arguments. I need to get a hold of 1941 box scores to do an inning by inning analysis to see if the relief pitcher argument holds up. Boxscores are only available from 1957 to today on baseballreference.com

Smarter and better pitchers?

Then why has every year since 1993 had a higher average for Major League Baseball than 1941?

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/hibavg4.shtml

"The larger the participation rate, the smaller are the extremes in the population. "

This looks to be one of the better answers (or at least not talking out of his butt), however I believe that assume a normal distribution or at least a distribution with small tails and I have no reason to believe that batting percentage or any other baseball talent is normally distributed.

Answer 1

pitchers are a lot better now a days and they have more on each team so relief is available and pitcher doesn't stay in and knocked around as much

Answer 2

My answer would be a little technical. As baseball has become more popular (and we can mention the addition of black athletes in 1947 here), there has been an increase in participation by good athletes since 1941. The larger the participation rate, the smaller are the extremes in the population. In other words, the best players aren't as good relative to the average. If you have 10 players, the best one might be 10 percent better than the second-best. If you have 100 players, the best player might be 1 percent better. That will make it more difficult to break away from the pack, a quality that's needed to hit .400.

Different eras can have different standards for many reasons, which is why virtually no one hit 50 homers from 1928 to 1995, and then a bunch of players reached that number. (Steroids, lively balls, ballparks, etc.) So it's possible for someone to reach .400; indeed, Tony Gwynn had a shot when the strike got in his way in 1994 or so. But it's tough, and it's getting tougher.

Answer 3

I think that it's a huge flaw to say that pitchers are better now than in Ted Williams' day. If you look at the motion that Bob Feller had, for example, you know that he threw harder and with more motion than virtually anyone today. The "pitchers are better today" argument, unless backed with a real argument, is just the arrogance of not bothering to know history.

What is seldom suggested is that good hitters can take advantage of pitchers by seeing what they have on that day. They can get the timing down, see what movement there is, and so on. But having relief pitchers, even if they are not quite as good as the starters and closers, throws this off. A fresh pitcher comes in, you see him once in that game and only a few times a year, and you have less chance of figuring him out.
I think this is one factor which holds down the very top hitters, especially since they are the ones most likely to face relievers (or simply get walked).
That's just my theory, but I think it may have some validity.

Answer 4

Somebody that's like a hit freak could hit .400 again. But the pitching has gotten better and, personally, the hitters in the modern era has less of a chance because they have to hit off of fresh pitchers in the later innnings and they can't get hits in the later innings. And these days, hitters are trying to hit for power more than finese. So hitters want more homeruns than hits. And Ted Williams was a good hitter, but he's not the best hitter and he is not better than hitters like Ichiro or some of the other high hits or high average guys. Ichiro holds the records for most hits and singles in a single season. The hitters just aren't motivated enough is my thought.

Answer 5

There are many reasons. Among them, gloves are bigger and better built. The pancake gloves they used in the 30s were positively cutting edge compared to the turn of the century, when the most .400 hitters played.
Strategy is another problem. Relief pitchers are used to excess, there are fielders who come off the bench for defensive purposes, and the style of hitting even for lead-off hitters is more geared to the power game.
Playing fields are smaller. Gone are the center fields that were 500 ft. from home and the cavernous stadiums in New York and Pittsburgh.
It all adds up. Night games are less good for hitting. Travel is tiring. The media imposes itself. And on and on. There may be another .400 hitter, but there will have to be a change or two to aid him.

Answer 6

because it is so hard. i mean think about it. if you hit .400, then you have to get 4 hits every 10 ab's. it may not sound like much, but that is hard to do when you have a 90 mph fastball coming at you, and then an offspeed pitch, and then a breaking pitch. pitchers mix up thier pitches so much now. and now there are advanced scouting reports, so now every pitcher and catcher knows the best way to pitch to each hitter. to hit .400, you have to be extremely talented, not to mention extremely lucky.

Answer 7

I think no player will ever hit .400 again. The closest player since Williams has been Tony Gwynn with .394 in '94, which we all know was a strike-shortened season. Gwynn consistently hit for average, ending his career with a .338 average. If he couldn't do it, no one will.

Answer 8

Never say never. I think Joe Mauer, Freddy Sanchez, Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley are all guys that can hit, Mauer was close last year same with Sanchez both are great contact hitters. Mauer has had some injuries this year same with Sanchez. Cabrera is still very young. Utley has the consistency to do it also.

Answer 9

Someone still can.

Magglio Ordonez (Ugh) is only 32.
Jose Reyes is only 24 or 25.
David Wright is the same age as Reyes.
Carlos Beltran is only 29.
Jimmy Rollins is only about 27 I believe.
And Russell Martin (Dodgers!) is only 24.

If you don't believe me, look at Ichiro! Suzuki! :-)

Answer 10

because more and more guys hit for power these days. As a matter of fact .280 is the new .300