First, let's define the combination function "x choose y", written as
Com[x, y] = x! / (y! * (x-y)!)
where ! indicates the factorial.
The hypergeometric distribution describes this situation:
"We need to find exactly N copies of a object when we select S objects without replacement from a pool that contains C copies of the desired object, and T total objects"
The equation that tells us this probability is
Hypgeomdist[N, S, C, T] = Com[C, N] * Com[(T - C), (S - N)] / Com[T, S]
Example: We want to find the probability of drawing exactly 2 aces when we draw 5 cards from a deck of 52 cards, and 4 of them are aces.
Hypgeomdist[2, 5, 4, 52]
= Com[4, 2] * Com[(52 - 4), (5 - 2)] / Com[52, 5]
= 6 * 17296 / 2598960
= 0.0399298
So, the probability of drawing exactly (not "at least") 2 aces is 3.99%. If we then wanted to know the probability of drawing zero aces in 5 cards, we simply calculate
Hypgeomdist[0, 5, 4, 52] = 0.658842
So, there's a 65.9% chance we'll get no aces when choosing 5 cards out of a deck of 52 that contains 4 aces.
2007-08-27 10:02:29
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answer #1
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answered by lithiumdeuteride 7
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