Fidel is dead.What happens now?

Question

i_give_great_advice_: nice link thanks.

Like in communist Russia they'll sit on this for the week while they decide what to do.

You see Dave there is a life outside of the McCann saga.

Answer 1

That's the first I've heard of it (if it's true).

He wasn't a bad guy, and certainly was hampered by the USA's ridiculous foreign policy toward Cuba. Could've achieved a lot more for his people but for America.

Answer 2

Fidel has been dead at least three times in the past eighteen months, sometimes for weeks on end, so it doesn't do to jump to conclusions.
If he is dead, I would expect a gradual shift towards a far more open and democratic regime. The problem with baseing the entire structure of a nation on the cult of personality is that when that personality is no longer around it becomes impossible to sustain the regime as it was. I am not anti-Cuba, or entirely anti-Castro; in many ways he has been a champion for the downtrodden and dispossesed in Latin America,and his revolution for all its downsides certainly saved Cuba from being a puppet of American business in general and the Mafia in particular. However, his human rights record was appalling, and the World has changed to the point where his level of authoritarianism was utterly out of place.
Anyway, the regime has been softening for some time, in part preparing for Fidel's death, and the torch of Latin American Socialism has been passed to the far more democratic and less extreme Hugo Chavez.
What happens next in Cuba won't be too sudden, but with Castro gone, Cuba will be able to and willing to make some friends in the west at last, and lighten up on its own people.

Answer 3

When Fidel dies (and at this point his death is only a rumor in the exile community), his brother Raul probably takes over as a temporary status quo caretaker.

After Raul passes on, then the chaos begins. The hardest thing in any dictatorship is the passing of the founding generation. Yugoslavia did not last long after Tito. The Soviet Union had a prolonged succession struggle after Lenin. The PRC had a quick but messy succession struggle after Mao.

The one thing that will quickly become apparent is whether Cuba has managed to insitutionalize the revolution (in which case only the face will change) or if the strength and unity of the government is based solely on the personality and will of Fidel Castro.

While I know that many in Florida have their opinion of this matter, they have a vested interest in hoping that the regime in Cuba collapses. This type of vested interest has frequently resulted in erroneous conclusions regarding many matters of foreign policy. From the point of view of U.S. policy holders, the death of Fidel well put us in a wait-and-see mode.

There is a school of thought in foreign relations that says that open relations with a dictatorship with cultural exchanges tends to destablize the dictatorship by infecting the people with undesired ideas and that maintaining sanctions against a dictatorship allows the dictatorship to play an us vs. them game that unifies the nation. If so, serious consideration has to be given to whether our policy towards Cuba should change in the aftermath of Fidel.

Answer 4

I think the U.S. should invade. We should set the Cubans free from this absurd failure of communism, and give them a chance to vote either to be a state of the United States, or their own independent and democratic country down the road.

Cuba is probably the cleanest most pristine country in the Western Hemesphere. And the people trapped there are wonderful. Not really so politicized as we hear. Cuba is like Europe in the Caribbean.

That would be worth doing with our military might, trust me. And a far better thing than throwing money and blood into the middle east.

Answer 5

Start a ferry service between Key West and Havanna. Invite all the exiles in Miami to go home with FREE One Way Tickets!!!:) Especially Elian Gonzales family. Did they annoy you guys too or is it just me? :)
Seriously, an interesting question. It would be nice to see our two countries get past this CIA/ Castro garbage once and for all and just realize we all have interests that are not always going to agree. It's called acting like adults. Solve your own problems in your respective countries and don't bother the other countries!!

Answer 6

Ain't hear nothing in the news about Fidel Castro being dead!

If he is dead, then there will follow the usual power struggle for the leadership of Cuba. The outcome of which I am not sure about because I do not know any of the 'combatants'.

It's about as far removed from a 'democracy' as being thrown to the lions by Nero without a trial first.

No worries. Who cares anyway?

Answer 7

I dont think that Fidel Castro is dead. Foreign Minister Felipe Pérez Roque told journalists in Brazil on Thursday August 23, 2007 that Castro is determined to fully recover from intestinal surgery last year.

Answer 8

Power was exchanged and the Communists still have their jack boots on the neck of the Cuban people. Precious little will change. Now the animosity directed at Fidel will now go to Raul with the hope that when he dies, there will be enough infighting for a collapse similar to that of the Soviet Union to occur so the Cuban people can control their own destinies.

Answer 9

The Cuban people are better educated, have better health services, than those in many richer countries.
When Fidel dies will the regime collapse? If it does then Cuba may return to something like it was before the revolution.
Then it was a desperately poor country where the rich could visit casinos, brothels, and indulge themselves in any other vices their money could buy.
The Cubans deserve better than that.

Answer 10

If it is true, we (the USA) have to get a foothold in there to make sure a Hugo Chavez type or another Fidel does not take over. It would be in our best interest and that of the Cuban people to get the right person in there.

Answer 11

El Presidente Fidel Castro is not dead! What'll happen when he dies? I suppose Maradona will be in mourning; half of Cuba will mourn and half will celebrate; the CIA will deny any involvement in his death and there will be a programme on BBC2 at 11pm to argue whether he was good or bad.