Depending on the outcome of the 2008 election, who will have the best chance to be the nominee in 2012?

Question

For example, if Hillary and Guilani are the two nominees in this election, Is there a canidate that will be on the road to the eventually nomination after losing this time should he lose? I think of Ronald Reagan's attempt in 1976 and his eventual election in 1980
Give a possiblity for both parties

Answer 1

Regardless of which side loses, I think we will see a new crop of challengers for the nomination in 2012.

If the Democratic candidate loses, particularly if said candidate is a senator (likely since all but one of the candidates is from the senate), it will open the door in 2012 for one of the Democratic governors currently sitting out this election. Bill Ritter of Colorado, Ted Strickland of Ohio, or Brian Schweitzer of Montana all could be the 2012 nominee.

On the republican side, the candidate could come out of the Bush administration in the form of Secretary Rice (whose approval rating is far higher then the President’s). Or, it might come from the senate like Burr from North Carolina or Martinez of Florida. Governor Rick Perry of Texas is another possibility.

It’s also possible that the popularity of the incumbent president will affect the field. We might see a situation like what happened in 1992 when Bush was so popular that the big name democrats stayed out of the race, allowing a relative unknown like Clinton to win the nomination. In that case it might be some one like former Washington Governor Gary Locke or Governor Matt Blunt of Missouri. Or it might go to a party elder like it did for Dole in 1996. In which case it might be someone like a Mitch McConnell of Kentucky or Daniel Inouye of Hawaii.

I guess what I’m saying is that it’s to early to really tell.

Answer 2

If, in your example, Giuliani loses and HiLiary wins, then Rudy has a good chance again in 2012, once we live through the fiasco that will ensue.

if the Dems lose this election, there will be so many recounts that Bush will probably stay in power for the next three years until every last chad is counted. As history has proven, they are not a very graceful bunch when they lose.

So in 2012, the only candidate the dems will really have left, if HiLiary goes down in flames, will be Satan himself

Answer 3

I think Guilliani will make another attempt, after losing that is to Clinton. On the other side, look for Edwards to try again and Obama is still young.

Answer 4

Walter Mondale and Geraldine Ferraro.

Answer 5

I appreciate your enthusiasm for the elections to come... but for now, we need to focus all the voters on this election. We want to be damn sure the wrong people aren't elected.

Answer 6

Vote Republican either way!