300 wins....who is next? When will pitchers stop reaching the 300 win mark?

Question

In the early 90's MLB teams shifted from a 4 man starting rotation to a 5 man rotation and the pitchers started 5-7 less games each season. Since then win totals on the average has gone down. Tom Glavine was the latest to win 300 and the next in line is Randy Johnson(Age 43) 284 wins. After him is Mike Mussina (Age 38) with 247 wins. Will either of these two players win 300 games? After these two who do you think has a shot at 300 wins? Is the 300 mark going to fade as a realistic career win mark? I myself think Pedro Martinez and Andy Pettite are LONG SHOTS for 300 if they stay healthy but after that I personally do not see anybody else winning 300 games in the next 10 years.

Answer 1

no one will in the next 10 years!
5-man rotations, more desicions to relievers, no pitchers on track for 300 even if they do a lot better than they are right now. that all adds up to noone doing it in the next 10 years, maybe even a lot longer than that too.

randy johnson career is done, since he's 43 and has a bad back which ended his season.
moose is a great pitcher, but i just don't think he can get to 300. he's too far in his career.

Answer 2

I'm thinking that Randy is the only pitcher currently playing that might get to 300. Even he is no lock needing just 16 wins with his bad back. He hinted at retirement before this years surgery. The plus for him is that he would be pitching next year for what appears to be very good young team. I don't think Mussina has a real shot, he's breaking down quickly. Pettite, no way. Pedro has the skill, but he's too fragile. No way he stays around long enough for 300. As for the the pitchers under 30, it's just a pure guess. Never can tell when a rotator cuff will go. If I had to put money down, my top 5 for 300 would be Johan, Oswalt, Felix, CC, Webb.

Answer 3

Roy Halladay definately has a good chance. He was a late bloomer but because he is now playing with a great team, he can definately get there, assuming he stays healthy. I don't think Buehrle will. He has said he could possibly retire after his contract ends in 2011. I dont think he will retire just yet. Also, he started really taking on his starting role at the age of 22. Since then, for the last 9 years, he has averaged around 15 wins per year. Assuming he can pitch to 40 and still have the same production, he still cant make 300 wins. I think he may end up around 250 instead. Oswalt will come really close to 300, maybe make it. The man almost never gets injured and has pitched numerous 200+ inning years. Now that he is with the Phillies, if he can stay with a good team, he can make it there. Barry Zito has no chance. He are on the decline. Zito isnt getting wins anymore. He has had 10-11 wins the last 4 years (at 8 this year). Johan's stuff isnt as good as it was 5 years ago, but he is still pitching well. His strikeout numbers have gone way down from 10K/9 to 6K/9. I think he can make it to the upper 200s if the Mets play better. Jon Garland was never that good. He just got lucky with production from the White Sox. He is having a career year this year with the Padres, but I dont think that kind of production can go on for long; his ERA is 1.25 lower than his career average. And, with the Padres lack of offense, he cant have a winning % over .500 for many more years. Meanwhile, a player I think you should include is King Felix Hernandez. 68 wins and he is 24. He has a 3.27 career ERA , 2.5BB/9 and 8.1K/9. Assuming at one point in his career, he goes to play for a big market team, he can easily get to the 300 win mark. Another player is CC Sabathia. He has 153 wins and is 29 and playing for arguably the best team in the MLB (and im a sox fan). If he played for say the Pirates, I would say no chance, but he gets crazy good run support.

Answer 4

300 wins has NEVER been easy. From where does this misguided notion arise? The extinction of the species is no more at hand now than ever before.

Let's reivew the eras in which a pitcher picked up his 300th win, and note that in some 136 years of professional baseball, only 23 men have reached the mark.

1888-92 -- five (Galvin, Keefe, Welch, Radbourn, Clarkson). The first great wave.

1900-01 -- two (Nichols, Young).

1912-15 -- two (Mathewson, Plank).

1920-24 -- two (W.Johnson, Alexander).

1941 -- one (Grove).

1961-63 -- two (Spahn, Wynn).

1982-90 -- six (Perry, Carlton, Niekro, Seaver, Sutton, Ryan). The second great wave, partially due to the 1960s expansions.

2003-08 -- four (Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, *R.Johnson).

300-win pitchers tend to arrive in groups (small groups, yes), but more than the arrival dates, look at the GAPS. The gulf between 1924 and 1961 has only Grove (who, had he reached the majors earlier, like he should have -- his minor league team refused to deal him -- would have gotten to 300 around 1932 and probably won 400+), and adjusting for the WWII service gap, possibly denied only Feller. And then there's another huge gap between 1963 and 1982.

So. Droughts are nothing new, and the clustering is consistent enough that it's probably not merely coincidental, but that great pitchers who manage to stick it out arrive in small, specifically unpredictable, groups. Injuries and age have derailed plenty of others before reaching 300; that's part of baseball.

But to speculate that Glavine (or RJ) is the last of the breed? Nonsense. There will be another, unless gameplay conditions change drastically. The one after Johnson or Pedro is probably not playing yet, or maybe he's Johan Santana. We'll have a better idea by 2018 than we will today. But, oh yes, there will be another. Winning 300 has never been easy, but it is not yet impossible.

Answer 5

Randy Johnson will stick around to get it I should think. Mussina will not reach it.
Pedro has a legitimate chance, as does Pettite.

Future pitchers with shots include:

Johan Santana
Carlos Zambrano
C.C. Sabathia
Brandon Webb
Josh Beckett

Answer 6

I think The Big Unit will get 16 more wins.
Mussina needs 53 so three more solid seasons should do it.
I doubt Pedo will make it... too injury prone.
Pettite has a decent shot ... if he stays with the Yankees.

The rest are listed by likelihood of making 300.
Top tier: Roy Oswalt, Tim Hudson
Tier 2: C.C. Sabathia, Mark Buehrle
Tier 3: Johan Santana, Jake Peavy , Carlos Zambrano, Brandon Webb
Tier 4: Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Brad Penny

Answer 7

Randy can if he can stay healthy and play couple more years. Mussina has a good chance it is only his age and how much longer he wants to play that could keep him from it. Would be cool to see Smoltz be able to do it. That would be something to see with those 150 saves of his was awesome just for him getting the 200 wins to go with it.

Answer 8

Randy Johnson had a real shot before he got hurt a few weeks ago. I really would like to see Johan Santana get 300. He plays for my favorite team so I would like to see him get it. Did anyone see him strike out 17 today. That was awesome.

Answer 9

You just named some of the best pitchers of all time man. Mull that over in your mind. They are 350 W guys in the old days.

Answer 10

I do not know who's next but i think at least 3 pitchers will reach it in the next 15 years. it will definitely happen.