Suppose California wanted to secede from the US, and...?

Question

had over 80% approval from Californians to do so. The California legislature votes to secede, and the Governor signs it into law.

1) What else is needed?
2) If al that was needed were in place, do you think the federal government would really allow it to happen, or try legal or even military means to prevent it?

Answer 1

Check out U.S. History from 1860-1865 and you will have your answer...except back then 90%+ wanted to secede from the Union...but instead Lincoln caused the death of hundreds of thousands of Americans not to lose the Union on "His Watch"...it would never work...but if it does can the South do it again?

Answer 2

1 -

California has one of the six of seven largest economies in the world, measured apart from the United States, so some people may be tempted to think it can make it on its own.

But California derives benefits from the Union beyond those discussed above. An independent California would need to purchase water from other Western states like Oregon and Colorado, and would stop receiving subsidies from the foreign government of Washington, DC if it seceded.

That would lead to a massive restructuring of California's economy, especially because the water is a necessary part of the largest sector in California's economy, big agriculture. Without imported water, California's economy would shrink dramatically.

I wouldn't count the state out completely - I think that the technological fix of desalinization and improved solar/tidal power collection could mitigate the decline. But California would also lose such easy access to the markets in the remaining 49 states and assorted territories.

I'm sure there are a dozen other economic barriers to secession, but that's what occurred to me on the spur of the moment.

2 -

Supposing a large majority of Californians was for secession, and the governor (not Ahnold) and state legislature were for it, I think a lot of federal arm-twisting would ensue, to avoid military confrontation and other disruptions.

Seeing that the move would be considered blackmail, and could, at a stretch, end in disaster, California's governor and legislators would probably try to avert the even popularly supported secession movement becoming official policy, and would instead act to preempt public opinion with propaganda (using the term in its neutral sense, here), and public programs to mitigate the conditions favoring secession.

And if the problem were really with the US as a whole, this calculation would have to change. A strong California confronting a weak US would probably pull upstream Colorado River states with it, but California seceding with other Western states is less "romantic" a notion than the Golden States going it alone.

Answer 3

Hmmmm ... I think that the scenario you've outlined pretty much covers what would need to happen. As for the federal response, it would probably be legal means only, unless someone in California decided to start shooting.

I think that northern California would in turn secede from southern California and then petition to join the Union as a new state, as West Virginia did when they split from Virginia during the Civil War. I have friends from northern California who would be happy enough to be rid of southern California. :-P

Interesting question ... a person with the writing talent and the right knowledge of history and government could make it into a good book! :-)

Answer 4

California is too valuable economically to be allowed to secede. The first step that the governor would have to take would be to secure all the National Guard armories and military bases in the state, including the fleet base in San Diego and Camp Pendleton. I believe most military personnel would remain loyal to the government in Washington, and would be unlikely to surrender their arms to the CHP. Some elements of the California National Guard might remain loyal to the governor, but I would expect that Sacramento would be immediately occupied by airborne or airmobile troops within three to four hours of a successful vote for secession. Remember, the response time of the military is much faster than in 1860.

Besides, the idea of secession was pretty much permanently decided by Lincoln's conduct of the Civil War.

Answer 5

Let's think back to a time not so many hundreds of years ago when the south wanted to secede from the north because of the slavery issue. Bam, civil war. I think that's probably about what would happen.

Though I'd be one of the 80% voting to secede, as long as Arnie didn't become the president of California.

Answer 6

They would look for an excuse to attack while appearing to be in the defensive position, just like Lincoln did.

It wouldnt be hard to keep military installations in place in CA and build up their weapons and such to cause a reaction out of fear in CA. Once a few citizens (not the military) attacked the military out of fear that the weapons that were just flown in, then they could respond to overwhelming military force to 'reclaim' the territory.
____

Civil: Please go buy some history books! This is the second misinformed thing Ive read from you today. Lincoln is known for his belief that secession was not allowed. He thought that once entered, you were in the union for life (despite the northern states wanting to do it many times before). He caused secession by being the first person not to compromise when it was threatened (the first time the South threatened it instead of the North).

Answer 7

nicely hell i'm going to pass to California. people advocating specific they are in a position to have it, have no thought if California secedes 'US' financial device will cave in. California is the backbone of u.s..

Answer 8

you might want to read the terms under which California was admitted into the Union. It may well be that seceding isn't an option under that agreement.

If the agreement is silent on the subject, it would make an interesting Supreme Court case, don't you think?


***
personally, I'd love to erect an Immigration checkpoint at the Arizona border to keep unwanted leftists out. :-)

Answer 9

The fed has already decided that states are not allowed to secede. Look up "American Civil War" to see what happens to those who try.

Answer 10

thier own army to secede, it would be like going back to civil war days, while it is true that the goverment is not allowed to use the army on american soil, they have enough radicals out there to do it themselves, but yes bush would interpret it as a "terrorist actions" and would probably be the trigger happy texan he is and push the button, (i'm from texas and i dont especially like bush) but in any case its better that they dont cuz it would not be good for anybody right now