question for the real experts??

Question

Is a longterm bear market a real possibility??

Answer 1

yes the worst one was 1930-1932 aka great depression but there was a LONG TERM bear market from 1967-1983 which threw out Carter and gave us a real oil crisis. Another one is possible.

Answer 2

Sure, why not. Governments and Central Banks are a lot smarter and have better tools but if you look back at stock prices the can basically go no where for years. e.g. mid seventies to early eighties. The Dow was at about 700.

That is why experts tell us not to put money in the stock market that you will need in 5 years or less. What is scary now is that the world markets are so interdependant and hedge funds are doing all these tricky things without much oversight we could bring about a bear that could last awhile. Remember psychology plans a big part - when people are burned they stay away for a long time.

I don't know what a "real expert" is - I have some decent experience and knowledge. Don't think you need that much to answer if it is a real possibility.

Answer 3

Opinions seem to be very mixed among the experts. The fundamentals of the global economy point to a huge buy opportunity with the recent downturn. (I'm buying back in on Monday). The fundamentals are strong, but the difficulty is on valuations. Are prices of stocks in actuality high or low in terms of actual value. I'm not sure there is an objective answer to that question. But I do think we may have hit the bottom of this current correction, at least I hope I'm right, although I know there will be a lot of volatility for a few more weeks I think the possibilities are at least fair there is a rally in the short term. Yes it is a possibility, to answer your question, but today's activity, I believe, was a huge signal that an oversold market can offer some short term profit at the very least. It's not going to be so easy as it has been in the 80's, 90's, and 00's, it may take some more imagination, especially for those unable to buy and trade individual stocks economically, but playing in the broad markets only.

Answer 4

Show me a long term bear market and then I will tell you its possible.

From over a decade of active trading and looking back at the market for over 90 years, I never have seen a real Bear Market. Every "supposed" bear markets always end up higher and higher... its all a matter of time...

http://www.mastersoequity.com

http://www.optiontradingpedia.com


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Answer 5

Well, it all depends. Basically yes it is however there are a lot of forces working to keep the markets from failing. Countries add money to prop them up. Steady income streams from retirement plans provide new cash for investing. Interest rates are adjusted down. And so on.

If you believe in long wave theory then we will enter a major multi-year bear market in 2011.

If you believe the derivatives market is an explosion waiting to happen (I do) then you can expect the bear to claw things up very shortly. We could be years digging out from this unregulated fiasco waiting in the wings.

Answer 6

Nobody can really say for sure, but I would think that the emergence of China and India spell a longterm bull market.

Until today, the NYSE had gone the longest time in its history without a "correction" (a drop of 10% from a high).

Answer 7

In response to Jay P's answer: "There's always a bull market somewhere.".. Not in the past week or so, my friend. Everything seems to be getting hit, but it is in the whole mix of things. There will always be corrections, cycles, etc. Now go watch some more Cramer, I believe it is the lightning round!

Answer 8

A learn replaced into executed it sluggish in the past on "expert" witnesses....specially psychiatrists attesting in the previous parole boards on no rely if inmates could be a threat to society if set unfastened. frequently circumstances, "non-expert" witnesses could testify too, the two against or on the behalf of the inmate. The learn chanced on that the "non-expert" witnesses certainly have been -extra- precise than the so called "expert" witnesses in predicting what a inmate could do in the 1st twelve months of being released. .

Answer 9

As one of the best investors on the planet, as well as an economist, YES it is a real possibility.

However, it does not matter.

You should make your purchases based upon the underlying value of the company and your future discounted cash flows. The intermediate market really should not matter to you.

Answer 10

yes, type in "Great Depression" and learn a little history.

Not they we are likely to experiece that again, but it's possible. The 1970's were kinda like a great big bear market, till my namesake came along and fixed everything.