Hurricane Dean Florida out of the clear?

Question

Now everyone here is celebrating since the the National Hurricane Center is saying "oh were so safe." I have tracked storms for a while and have seen such error in forecasts. Should we really be safe? What if it turns into the gulf then heads here? What if that low they been talking about isn't as weak as expected?

Answer 1

I always say once in the Gulf a hurricane is very unpredictable.
Texas doesn't need anymore rain. God forbid Dean heads for the Texas coast, I hope we all remember how the people of Texas opened their arms to Louisiana and Mississippi during Katrina.

Resident of west central Florida.

Answer 2

Well, you're right, the uncertainty is too great. You're not safe, but you seem to be safer than spots further west on the Gulf Coast. Check out the latest guidance models ... http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_model.html#a_topad

The nearness of ALL the models reflects positively for the certitude of the path. The bad news is the heat content in the Gulf and western caribbean is near record levels, there's very little wind shear and there's a strong upper-level anticyclone directly over it. Better conditions for strengthening a tropical system you could nary find. Plus when storms get very intense their exact path gets even more unpredictable. Forecasters need to be conservative to cover there butts but in four days this baby's gonna be a Cat 5, only question is where will it head from there, by then we should have a decent idea.

Projected track and intensities are similiar to Ivan..
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/32/Ivan_2004_track.png

Answer 3

I have been watching this storm from Day one. I know all the Models say this storm is headed for Mexico or Lower texas but I have A feeling its going to turn more northward. Go to the link posted and look at the opposite circulation in the Gulf. Watch closely at where all the the upper lever cloud cover is being pushed. Now add the fact that theres another system coming down from the northwest to push Dean even further towards the north and you have it tracking more toward the Mobile area. Like I said before....I am NO professional but I just wanted to share this observation with someone.

Answer 4

Hurricane Dean has me as worry as you. Alot of people say that this storm is going into the Yucatan but not until i see it go in there, i would blow a sign of relief. There has been a sign of which the storm is starting to move a little bit northward since the last update. That track is possible to change in the near future.

Answer 5

I kinda hope it comes to Florida since i've been wanting to experience and get through a hurricane. But then again this hurricane is strengthening for the last days and now it has become a Category 2 Hurricane and it might really cause hell in Florida ONLY IF it hits here. Meteorologists are saying this hurricane is pretty big for its category and it could become a Category 4 or even 5 by next week!

Answer 6

Hey! Remember Wilma? Dean's track looks awwwfully familiar. Don't be surprised if he decides to take a vaca in Fla.

-Resident of Jupiter, FL (East coast)

Answer 7

hurricane forecasting is very difficult at times. although Dean is not projected to hit Florida, it may or may not do so. we just have to wait and see

Answer 8

I live here too and I agree 100%. Hurricanes change all the time.We should get prepared in case we need to leave.

Answer 9

Good point. But some people here just don't realize whether changes all the time. You know, like the people who say weathermen are stupid.

Answer 10

Just being prepared is your best bet. No matter what, you'll have enough time to make an decision. They aren't that fast....