Here's a theory I have on the McCanns and Madeleines disappearance .... warning VERY long .......?

Question

WARNING: THIS IS VERY LONG ....

This theory works off the basis that reports of a cadaver dog detecting a corpse is untrue. At the moment we don't have any confirmed reports about a corpse having been detected, so this is just a theory on the basis that it is untrue.

What if Gerry and Kate weren't involved at all, but it was one or more of the friends.

Which of the friends had an opportunity though? Reasonably it could only be down to Jane Tanner, her partner Russell O'Brien and Matthew Oldfield. They had left the table between the check at 9:05 by Gerry and the check at 10:00 by Kate.

Remember all 3 of these people KNEW that the patio door was open. They also all know the children. That means they knew if the child woke up while they picked them up the child was unlikely to scream since it was a familiar face to Madeleine. If they were 'spotted' inside the apartment, it wouldn't be suspicious at all since they were just 'checking' on the children.

Jane Tanner left the table shortly after Gerry McCann. Now here's where the waters get muddy.

While Jane was away she claims she saw a man carrying a child. However this account was disputed by Jeremy Wilkins.

"Mr Wilkins says he saw no man carrying a child or Jane Tanner herself. "It was a very narrow path and I think it would have been almost impossible for anyone to walk by without me noticing," he said."

So we immediately have a discrepency in Jane's story.

Then Jane returns to the Tapas bar.

Matthew Oldfield then went to check on the children roughly between 9:30 and 9:45. However he issued conflicting statements as to whether he ACTUALLY saw Madeleine. One suggested he may have, the other stated he simply listened at the door, heard no crying and went back to the bar. So there is a distinct possiblity that he NEVER saw Madeleine, and that the last person to have claimed to have seen Madeleine was Gerry at 9:05.

Kate then checks at 10:00pm and we know the rest of the story from there.

Now on this night, there was a quiz night going on. Gerry invited Najova Chekaya who was running the quiz over to their table at 9:30pm. She claimed no-one (including Matthew Oldfield) had left the table up to the point Kate discovered Madeleine missing. However she also said a chair at the table was empty, and another worker at the bar said the 'tall man' believed to be Russell O'Brien had been missing for most of the night.

According to Sol, Russell O'Brien arrived back at the restaurant at 9:55pm. Just 5 minutes before Madeleine was noticed missing.

So could Jane Tanner and Russell O'Brien be more deeply involved? They both were missing for much larger sections of the night as their daughter had been ill. Russell according to bar staff was hardly around at all.

Then we have Jane Tanner who just happened to spot a man 'abducting' Madeleine, and even though in her later stories she was convinced it was Madeleine at the time she thought it was a man carrying a bundle that 'could' have been a small child. In fact she was so unsure of her sighting at the time, she didn't even mention it to anyone until AFTER Madeleine was confirmed missing. Yet weeks later she is telling a National Newspaper that she was SURE it was Madeleine. Quite a discrepency in her story. Then theres the other discrepency in which she claims to have spotted the man carrying the bundle, however another witness claims he never saw her or the 'strange man'. So why would she be lying about this?

Then her partner is missing for most of the night, presumably with his sick child.

Could Jane have gone into the apartment, and taken her back to their apartment. Remember even if she was spotted, no-one would suspect a mother carrying a child, and the child even half awake wouldnt have screamed since she knew Jane Tanner. Then maybe Russell had done something and disposed of the body, he had nearly an hour to do so, and the cliffs and shoreline are very close to the resort.

Jane and Russell were the only ones away from the table that night for a consistently long time, but they had an excuse as their child was ill so their absence would not have been noticed.

Russell is alleged to have only arrived back 5 minutes before Kate went to do her check on Madeleine.

But why would they do it? Im not sure of a motive, but then again do we know all there is to know about this group? Do we know if there is friction in the group we haven't been told about?

I have been told by someone and Im not quoting here, this is someone telling me Dave S, and this is just a rumour so Im not stating it as fact, that she had worked with a doctor who claimed that he had worked with Gerry McCann and at the time it was rumoured that he and Jane Tanner had been having an affair. Maybe something went wrong and when the affair was over Jane was aggrieved by it and decided to take revenge. I don't know.

But what about opportunity? How did Jane and Russell know beforehand that they would have an opportunity to carry this out? Well all of them (sans Gerry and Kate) had been to a Mark Warner resort before in Greece, where they treated the children in the same way as they had done in Portugal. That is, they left their children to sleep in their rooms while they went off to drink the night away. They knew they were going to be following the same setup in Portugal, so they knew well in advance that the all the children would be left alone for long periods of time.

Thrown into the mix is the fact that Robert Murat was in Exeter just days before the Tapas 9 went on their trip. And WHO lives in Exeter? Jane Tanner and Russell O'Brien. Remember even though Murat has been cleared, he still made statements that seemed to contradict with each other (claims to have been home all night, but other people remember seeing him at a local bar at 9pm). Could there still be a connection here?

Alls Im saying is that Jane made several statements that don't make any sense and have been rebuffed by independent witnesses. So why are her stories not adding up? Why did she go from seeing a man walking with an object (an event so insignificant that she didnt mention it to anyone) to a man that was definitely carrying Madeleine and was 'running' with her. Thats quite a different story from what she first told.

Anyways, there you go ..... told you it was a LONG one. What do you think?

Sal UK - 5th last paragraph, I speculate on an affair that had gone wrong .......... but also it could have been something else that Gerry and/or Jane dont want to come out, so they havent said anything, hence why it's not in the public domain.

Answer 1

I'll be SO glad when this matter is settled. I've lost interest and I think most other people have too. It's totally boring now ! ! !

Answer 2

You ask what we think (and therefore in spite of a comment or two to the contrary it IS a question). I think that you have put an enormous amount of thought and research into this and mentioned some details I was unaware of. Your conjectures could be wide of the mark but even among the professionals in investigations they often follow many lines of conjecture. I do not see people criticizing police if they say they are "following several lines of enquiry", so I don't really see why you should be criticized on that score.

Some one says you are psychotic. I see nothing "psychotic" in what you write and with my extensive studies in psychology and psychopathology I think I have some right to give such an opinion... My only concern is that you are spending a huge amount of mental effort on this, which can be very draining...I hope you take a break every now and then from what is a very taxing process for any person.

I must disagree with some other comments that suggest (or insist) that you should not state your opinions: I feel that it is far from counter-productive for people like yourself to voice your opinions on this. Like I said a short while ago in answer to another person's question, cases such as this highlight the need for better legal child-protection mechanisms in Europe, and whatever it takes to keep this matter -- and others like it -- in the public eye and maybe help to protect other children in future, it's worth it.

I found a recent report from the Telegraph...It confirms that Portuguese police state that a "cadaver dog" detected traces of a body in that room... It also states that the police have confirmed that the McCanns are not suspects... It does not say, however, who else (besides R.M.) the police might be officially considering as suspects.

Oh, here's the link....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/08/16/nmaddy116.xml

I find that very interesting...and I thank you for your statements. My mind is still open and my one hope is that -- in spite of specialized British sniffer dogs (brought in nearly 100 days after she went missing), Madeleine may still be found -- and hopefully alive.

A.

Answer 3

Very interesting theory. I have to laugh when people defend the McCann's by saying there's no evidence that they were involved, there's no evidence, (thus far) that suggests they WEREN'T involved either though, is there?

Just an extra note though, wasn't it Jane Tanner who "remembered" (around the 85 day mark) that she had seen Murat looking in the apartment windows? She recognised his lazy eye.........from behind, if I recall correctly.

I don't see why Team McCann are so het up about the McCann's and their friends being looked at with suspicion. EVERYONE who came in contact with Madeleine should be under suspicion, as far as I'm concerned, otherwise the investigation is flawed. You cannot rule out friends and family simply because they're "grieving", especially as, statistically speaking, friends and family are more often the perpetrators in cases like this. I wouldn't care less, to be honest, if you have nothing to hide, you have nothing to fear, right?

Poor little Madeleine.

Answer 4

Well done for at least putting things into some sort of time frame.

The inspector leading the investigation has again reiterated that the McCanns aren't suspects.

The money argument. Did the McCanns have debt problems? Nothing anyone has mentioned. Could they know an appeal would work? Of course not, there has never been anything similar and it was likely to falter anyway. There are lots of missing children and unlike this case many of those people hadn't left their kids unattended, so there was no reason to think they would get special public sympathy, in fact they were likely to get less.

I never though the McCanns had any role to play here. Even if they had been able to hold their emotions in check, and a journalist said he looked into Kate McCanns face and saw so much pain shortly after she went missing, they would have been in a very agitated state because they were shortly going to say she was missing. Hardly the point at which you would choose to invite the quiz instructor to the table is it? Why, so that she can independently (not part of the group) observe your demeanour?

People are right, much is strange about this case, but at the top for me is that people think they could have had anything to do with it . How could they sit in the Tapas bar and no one even off the record talk to the Portugese press who have suggested their involvement and not comment on the strange behaviour of the McCanns.

Answer 5

Dave,

Your theory is long. I’ll be pithy.
The police always look for motives early in such cases. For example, the first thing the police did was to confirm that Gerry is actually Madeleine’s father!

The police probably found no motives otherwise the friends would have been suspects by now.

Answer 6

Very interesting. I am with Ladybugs on this. I think that money is also at the fore. The McCanns and their friends seem to have an 'interesting' relationship, there are so many undercurrents with this, it is certainly not straightforward. Whatever happened I am positive the McCanns are involved in some way shape or form.

Answer 7

Best theory I have read so far.

All the pro-McCanns need to look at the statistics in relation to this, it is very unlikely in adduction cases that a child is abducted by a complete stranger. Much more likely that family/close friends are involved in some way.

Add to the mix the inconsistencies between stories, strange behaviour of the McCanns before and after the alleged abduction etc.....

Dave S - in support of your theory, I read somewhere that the trail of madeleine went cold outside of the apartment complex. The portuguese police said the evidence pointed towards the child having been moved from one room to another on that night. From the McCann room to the Tanner room perhaps?

Answer 8

Well this sounds quite plausible. At least you are having a stab at a theory which is more than the ploice seem to be doing at the moment. What I can't understand is that it was the UK police who brought in the cadaver dog and supposedly found traces of a body in the apartment. Surely if this is true them the UK police would not let it pass without a follow up.I thought these dogs were extremely reliable. Maybe they are waiting for the blood test results later this week then will link the two together?

Answer 9

Some very valid and interesting points there. Its sad, but I dont know if we will ever truly know the facts and why they McCanns and their friends have lied so much. I cant believe the Police have not seen through their inconsistencies and questioned them more. I just hope that poor Madeleine is found safe and well soon. Afterall, she is truly the only totally innocent party in all of this and is definately the only one who is hurting / has been hurt through no fault of her own.

Answer 10

Another theory that could be very possible. How well do we really know ALL of our friends. How well do we know our own family members for that matter. How do they know when of their male friends was not a pedophile and something went wrong or they were mixed up in some pedo ring. People can be as naive as they want if they believe it is never possible. I had a Great Uncle who was a priest who lets just say enjoyed boys far to much. I would say it was not until he had already been dead 15 or 20 yeras before we found out what he had done to all of my brothers along with dozens of other boys. We were shocked. Beyond shocked so who knows what kind of weirdness 1 or more of the McCanns friends had in their life. Didnt one of these friends have some sort of relationship with Murat also?

About what Nimrod said...maybe he is right..but what kind of parent leaves their sick child alone while they go out. I would not even leave my teenager home alone sick. They should be brought up on charges by social services as well.

Answer 11

yes dave a very interesting theory but why??? an with what media coverage i have read its pains me to think that maybe the mccanns and co. did indeed take a vow of silence as to what happened that night but until the police have concrete evidence we have to presume that the little mite was in fact abducted by a stranger no doubt there are conflicting statements made by tanner and co. but surely the police have already picked up on that..i do hope they find maddie alive...