math equation on the probability there will be no earthquake next year?

Answer 1

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There is no probability of there being no earthquake next year. Every year, there has been an earthquake somewhere on earth.

(I'm not a seismologist, so I don't know that for a fact, but as someone who enjoys seeing a teacher's ill-phrased question, I believe that the above answer is perfectly correct.)

Oi, you! Global warming?!?! How can you apply that to this question??? Hey, Asker, please ignore the person above me!

Answer 2

This would have to be based on the frequency of earthquakes in the past. The problem is, past results are no longer a valid predictor due to global warming.

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The poster under me has a point -- there is going to be an earthquake somewhere. Naturally, I'm assuming the question meant to ask about the probability of an earthquake of, say, magnitude 5 or greater at a given point on earth.

As for whether or not global warming increases the likelihood of earthquakes: hey, it says so in my copy of "An Inconvenient Truth", written by our next president.

Answer 3

There is no such thing in probability as far as I know.