If alex rodriguez stays healthy, and if he's not doped up, how long before he destroys Bonds record?

Question

You got it. I don't like Bonds. So give me an estimate.

My friend says 4 - 5 years.

Yo, sgoldperson. I know you have a lot of points, but a simple x amount of years would do.

Answer 1

yeah about 4-6 years
maybe less
who knows
but barry bonds is making home runs now
[ why is that------steriods]

Answer 2

No offense to your friend, but based on his estimate, Arod would have to average 64 homers over the next 4 years just to reach 756, and 51 homers over the course of 5 years. That is not going to happen.

I'm not necessarily convinced he will break it. If he stays healthy, maybe. But he's been pretty lucky with his health so far. I think people also forget that Bonds isn't done yet. If he decides to play a couple of more years, possibly as a DH, he should end up with at least 800 homeruns. It's not like he's stuck on 756 homers.

Arod is 32 right now, so let's assume he plays until he's 40, and at the end of this year he has 510 homers. He would have to hit 290 homers over the course of 8 years to reach 800, which is a little over 36 homeruns a year. That's a lot of homers, especially when you consider he will be in his mid and late 30's during this time.

Again, these figures are if Bonds ends up playing a few more years and reaches 800. I think Arod can do it, but I don't think it will be as easy as everyone says it will be.

Answer 3

Never, you took him out when you said if he isn't doped up and by your meaning of doped up HE WAS. Of course he had to stop, they can test for it now. The whole point with BALCO was they couldn't test for it, not that MLB WOULD HAVE, but when BALCO was busted they established a test. EVEN IF he wasn't he STILL wouldn't do it that quick. Think about it, he is over 250 away. So 5 years would STILL be an average of 50 a year. Tell me THAT wouldn't be suspicious when it is done for 5 years in a row. IF he is clean, and he isn't, and IF Bonds didn't add to it(and he will) then at 260 to go(minimum but it will be more) and that isn't smashing it I'd still say 8 years AT LEAST. That's about 33 a year by average. He may do it a little faster.

Answer 4

I think 8 years is the best number that is if he stays healthy, remember Bonds says he wants to play next year at the very least even though his numbers are down a bit cause hes had to lay off the magic cream he was using. You have to think hes good for atleast 20 or so more even in limited abs the guy can still hit.

Answer 5

In about 7 years..

Answer 6

A-Rod is averaging about 42 HR's per year during his first 12 full seasons. He will likely need 800+ to break the record if Bonds keeps playing (which is likely). Even if he maintains that average (which isn't likely) it will take 7+ years. More realistically he will achieve the record around his 40th birthday , in 8 years.

But, I hope he does it sooner, I don't like Bonds either!!

Answer 7

at 40 dingers a year it will still take 7 years. if bonds plays another year then you can add another 20-30 to the record total as well so maybe 8 or 9.

Answer 8

Obviously it depends on Barry's final home run count. But if AROD averages 40 for the 6 years, that will put him right there with Hank and Barry, so he should be breaking it in 7 to 9 years unless he gets injured.

Answer 9

in about 7 years.

Answer 10

Over his career, he's averaged about 41 HR/year. If Bonds stops at, say, 780 HR and A-Rod continues to hit 'em at the same rate, he'll pass Bonds sometime in 2014.

Answer 11

I tend to agree with it will take him at least 7 years. Either way the record won't stand as long as Aaron's did and it will all be a joke as far as how long Ruth held it.

It's kind of the reason why I don't get all worked up about Bonds. Personally I'm kind of getting sick of hearing people pound on Bonds.

Tainted or not....it's his record right now. But it will be short lived at best.....