Is it too early to predict that the coming election will be a Clinton/Giuliani contest?

Question

Both seem to surging ahead in the polls and the $$$ raising.
I guess it will now be just a question of who will be veeps and what the party platform will contain....

Answer 1

It is too early to tell for sure, especially on the Republican side.

Giuliani's big problem and big advantage is that the Republican Party likes winner-take-all primaries. Depending on how many states end up holding their contests in December and January (yes, I said December as it is looking more and more likely that Iowa will go before Christmas), the February 5 primaries could have anywhere between three and five candidates on the Republican side. If there are five candidates, Giuliani just needs to hold his current numbers to gain a big lead in the race for the nomination. If it drops down to three candidates, Giuliani could find himself a very close second in a lot of the more conservative states (which have more delegates to the convention at the state-wide level than states like New York and California) and second in many of the congressional districts. To win, Giuliani either needs to start gaining (and his numbers have been pretty stable in the upper 20s, lower 30s for the past several months), or he needs enough candidates in the race to let him eek out narrow wins with a plurality.

On the Democratic side, Clinton is starting to reach the magic number that will make her the nominee. Because the Democrat's use a proportional representation system, she needs numbers in the mid-40s or better in the early states to get the majority of the delegates. The most recent polls make this look likely. If she can get the early lead (near half of the elected delegates after February 5th), it will be difficult for other candidates to catch up in a three-way (or more) race, (or even in a two-way race without some landslide wins). In addition, given the automatic delegate slots for party leaders, Clinton just needs to do well early to get these automatic delegates to jump on the bandwagon.

I would note that Obama was slighlty ahead of Clinton in fundraising in the second quarter.

Also, as noted above, it is early, and a lot of slime is still to be thrown before the first votes are cast. My hunch says that there is very little that can be thrown at Clinton that primary voters don't already know. Giuliani is the more vulnerable of the two to negative attacks, especially as the majority of Republican voters are very leary of his positions on the so-called "family values" issues.

Answer 2

With the silly number of candidates diluting the voter pool the primaries will come down to a matter of votes. Hillary and Obama have a following but continue to lose from their base as they continually show their inexperience in Obama's case and duplicity in Hillary's case. OF course there's Bill Richardson who is, in my opinion, the worst of the Democratic candidates.

Romney makes many Republicans uncomfortable and of course ol Rudy's questionable conservative values and Thompson's history will make the Republican side an interesting race as well.

I just don't think with elections becoming more about fund raising and less about actual issues. Candidates whose greatest talent is laying blame is what we have ended up with yet as a society we will ignore these things and continue to bash each other while the politicians get richer.

Every day I move closer and closer to becoming a independent. I voted green in 00 because I believe we need another official party and that may very well be what I do again.

Answer 3

It is way too soon. Watch for things to change radically once the first primaries come in. Giuliani is in big trouble in New Hampshire and Iowa, Hillary isn't doing very well in Iowa either.
Many voters want to vote for the "winner" rather than the best candidate, so if the frontrunners lose in the first few contests it hurts them deeply. Look for Fred Thompson,Mitt Romney, and Barack Obama to have several early victories, perhaps enough to swing the overall contest for at least one of them.

Answer 4

It is too early. While Clinton is the most likely Democratic candidate, Giuliani has a long way to go. He is too vulnerable on the moral issues surrounding his chronic adulteries, and his judgement in bringing his lover home to Gracie Mansion and banging her in the room next to his daughter's. After making a federal offense (quite literally) about Clinton's indiscretions, the GOP cannot afford to nominate a skirt chaser like Rudy.

Further, his total lack of any experience beyond the municipal level makes him a liability as well. Too early for him to be declared a winner.

Answer 5

Clinton versus Giuliani for US President is already being predicted for 2008 since they both have the support of their partymates.

VOTE for your choice as US President on my 360 degrees blog and know who will likely win.

Answer 6

Uh, Biden, who is not walking for president is just too historical institution,however McCain, who IS and has been in Washington for many years and has supported each coverage of is not? The colossal dwelling run is loosing steam upon getting part-approach to first. Palin's down-aspects are starting to exhibit. McCain is establishing to tank. The truth that he is fully divorced from fact goes to harm him increasingly. I haven't any proof that you just predicting whatever safely. Whether you probably did or no longer is beside the point.

Answer 7

Giuliani will not be the Republican candidate. When push comes to shove, Republicans will vote for someone who can beat Hilliary and who better than someone who is the polar opposite from her, and that is Fred Thompson. Has he played president in a role before, because it could be foreshadowing for what we will see in '08.

Answer 8

this is actually what i was thinking it would come down to. there is quite a bit of time left before we see who's actually in the running... but i agree with you, i think it will be clinton and giuliani... and honestly, with all the crap going on in the world today, i think even the most conservative republicans would vote for hillary... a change is comming!

Answer 9

Yes, it's too early to predict, and this contest isn't set in stone. A lot can happen in 15 months.

Answer 10

At the rate that the states are moving up their primary elections I'd say it's not to early. Heck, at this rate we'll be voting next week.