Why do people think Glavine will be the last 300 game winner?

Question

Really, the two main arguments are that five man rotations are going to reduce starts and therefore wins, and that starters get fewer decisions because they'll be yanked earlier.

But Glavine himself pitched in a 5 man rotation for his whole career, and was never a really huge workhorse (only topped 240 IP 3 times, which guys like Randy Johnson exceeded regularly only a few years ago. Hell, Bronson Arroyo had 240 IP last year.). And in spite of that, Glavine still won 300 games.

The increased use of bullpens hasn't really had an effect on the number of decisions by starters- according to the NY Daily News last week, starters get roughly the same percentage of decisions as they did 25 years ago.

Plus bullpen use may actually preserve leads- these days you usually don't see a starter go an inning too long and unravel like you might have in years past.

Actually, the idea that there are more no decisions in baseball than before is a myth. Like I said above, according to the Daily News, starters get the same percentage of decisions these days that they did 25 years ago.

And Glavine (and Maddux and Clemens) pitched in a 5 man rotation his whole career.

Answer 1

It's the sort of mawkish, soppy, STUPID storyline that the mediots like shovelling from their daily columns. It carries melancholy overtones of "we'll not see this again / the times they are a-changin' / it was better back in the olde dayes", all of which is nonsense. But the proles seem to lap it up.

Being a sportswriter means never having to be held accountable for anything you write.

Answer 2

Between 5-man rotations and the increased use of relief pitching over the last 20-30 years, some belief that the 300 game winner is a thing of the past.

However, that belief does not acknowledge that pitchers are having longer careers than they did in the past. To pick a couple examples: Walter Johnson pitched his last game at the age of 39, Christy Mathewson at 35, and so on. If you look at the top 10 leaders in career wins (skipping over Maddux and Clemens), 5 of the 10 were finished by the time they were 36 years old. These were guys who, say, won 20 games per year for 15 years. Nowadays, nobody is winning 20 games every year but it's possible to win 15 games per year and last 20 years. Most pitchers won't, but then you're talking about your elite players to begin with - i.e., the guys who take care of themselves and are good enough that the decline of age still leaves them at an above-average caliber of play.

Answer 3

Because of the way pitchers are used in this day and age there is a possibility of there not being another 300 game winner. Pitchers are on pitch counts so they don't go that far into the game. Anytime a pitcher says he feels tightness or soreness in their arm they sit them out for a game of two. Tim Hudson is the closest of the young players and he would have to average 17 wins the next ten years to get to 300. Back in the day there were twenty game winners and now 17 is the the new 20. Even though Glavine pitched in a five man rotation he went deep into the game.

Answer 4

It seems like anyone that is hot fizzles out or gets injured. Dontrelle Willis had 22 wins in '05 but last year he dropped down to 12, with the same amount of games started. Pedro has 206 but he got injured and hasn't pitched since early last year. He is supposed to return but I still don't think he can do it. Yet Dice-K has a good chance of getting 300 wins. He's young and a solid pitcher with good pitches, not to mention one of the best offenses to back him up. The closest guys to getting to 300 are too old and will retire in the next few years, It may be a while before we see the next 300 winner.

Answer 5

Well the hitters are getting better too. They are getting stronger and teams are doing the little things to advance runners and score. The pitcher would get taken out of the game sooner if the other team scores more runs. That leaves more innings for the bullpen to get a win or blow the lead.

Answer 6

I think that of the current stock of pitchers, maybe CC Sabathia and Johan Santana will make or come very close. Maybe Roy Halladay, Jeremy Bonderman or Jake Peavy. I don't think Dice K will be around long enough to get close. He had been pitching in Japan for awhile before coming to America, so that should shorten his MLB career.But everything depends on their health and their teams.

Answer 7

I don't think he will

but people say there are more no decisions, and more likely for pitchers to get injuried and placed on the DL

Answer 8

he was also never on the injured list, it will never happen again because as soon as these overpriced players twitch, they are sent to rehab, they dont pitch complete games like before,

Answer 9

5 man rotation is the big thing. Instead of making 40 starts they make 30-35.

http://cleveland.indians.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070806&content_id=2133620&vkey=news_cle&fext=.jsp&c_id=cle

Answer 10

pitchers are getting injured more and wont be pitching into their 40s anymore.