Will CC Sabathia get 300 wins?

Question

CC Sabathia recently said he wants to get 300 wins. He turned 27 weeks ago and has 95 career wins. What do you think his chances are?

http://cleveland.indians.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070806&content_id=2133620&vkey=news_cle&fext=.jsp&c_id=cle

Haha yea the body might be a problem in his later 30's but he says he intends to stay in great shape as long as he can.

Even though he does weigh as much as a moose you have to remember he is 6 foot 7 or 8.

Answer 1

I saw that article on the Indians web site. I don't think CC can win 300. I hope he can just get 20 this year. The Tribe is due for a 20 game winner. maybe he and Fausto can both get 20. That would be great. Love the script I for your picture.
Just finished watching the Indians beat the Twins.

Answer 2

I wouldn't bet on it, but there's a chance. It all depends upon his stamina. As things are now, Sabathia is more than capable of winning 15 (actually even 17 to 20) per year with the Yankees. But in order to win 300 games, Sabathia will have to be pitching just as well at 39 as he is at 29. Does he have the longevity to do that? Only time will tell. But keep in mind that Sabathia is a pretty big guy. He doesn't have a body type that would tend to predict a long career. He may wear down after about 4 or 5 more years. So 300 is possible, but not likely.

Answer 3

Odds are not in his favor in this one...

OK, yes, I will admit that if you first look at the fact that he's closing in on the 100-win mark while just turning 27 recently, you really need to look at his career stats a bit more closely before you jump to any conclusions.

1) Since his rookie season (where he went 17-5), Sabathia's season high for wins is 15... even though he'll likely top that this season, it still means that he's only been averaging 13.5 wins a year.

2) Despite 95 wins, Sabathia's started 209 games in his career. At this rate, Sabathia would need to start nearly 650 games to win at the pace he has been. Seeing how he's averaged 30 starts a season, it would mean 22 seasons into his career before he would reach the number -- pitching until he's 42.

I'm not going to say it's impossible, but I just can't see Sabathia throwing his stuff for another 15 years. He's nearly 300 pounds. There's no way he could sustain that long of a career. There are two options:

1) lose weight and get healthier -- he'd probably lose some of his power and intimidation factor in the process, however.

2) continue as he's been going and have a massive coronary in his mid-30's.

Either way, I doubt Sabathias would have the necesary longevity to win 300 games.

Answer 4

He's got an impressive win total for his age, but much of that has to do with his early start. Even assuming he wins 20 this season, that would only give him an average of about 14.5 wins per season. At that rate, he's really need to pitch well until age 40 to have a realistic shot.

There are factors that coud influence his chances, notably the abilities of his teams over the next decade. He's proven very durable to this point of his career, but health is a concern for any pitcher.

I plugged his numbers into the Favorite Toy formula, and it gave him a 3.2% chance of reaching the mark. I might put that up at about 10%, but I'd really be surprised if he even came close to 300. There are just so many pieces that would have to fall perfectly into place.

Answer 5

Good luck with that CC. First, I dont see him pitching for another 15 years as it would most likely be need to happen in order to reach his goal. Nor do I see him being anywhere near the pitcher he is now, then. He is having a great season this year don't get me wrong, but I think he will have peaked by 30 and will be on his way out of baseball by 35.

Answer 6

He may want to but that's a dream, in my opinion. If he keeps on pace and pitches until about 40 then he will be pretty close. However, C.C. has battled weight issues and I think that will be his downfall towards the end of his career. I think he will end up with a little over 200, something like 220.

Answer 7

His ability to stay healthy will determine his longevity.. at his age, he certainly would be considered for it.. but even at 20 wins a season, he is still 11 years away from getting there.. If he averaged 17 wins a season, he would be 39 to 40 to do it.. He has a chance, but he better stay healty, and given his weight issues, I would be mildly surprised if he pitches past 37..

Answer 8

well most ball players have 2 consecutive peak years between age 28 & 32... hes 1/3 there,his prime is still ahead of him... if he is healthy and plays on good teams yes, got a real good chance. that said these prediction are very tenious because of all the unknown factors... maybe hes made a life time of money and just want to spend time w/ family, maybe he gets a bad arm???? countless number of intangebles.

Answer 9

Not impossible. He's on the realtively short list of young guys who MIGHT do it.

Would I bet on it? No, because you can never predict the future that far ahead. Dwight Gooden had 132 wins by the time he was 27, and look at his career.

Answer 10

I would love to see that happen, especially if he stays in Cleveland for it!
He has a great shot, because he is durable, and is carried by a great offense here in Cleveland.
Or if he is traded, he will go to a good team that can also get him some wins too!

Go CC!!!