Has anyone else noticed the serious decline in home runs this year?

Question

A-Rod is murdering the ball, I admit. But look at these other guys who just aren't putting up the long ball as frequently this year...

David Ortiz--18 HR
Manny Ramirez--19 HR
Albert Pujols--24 HR
Travis Hafner--16 HR
Vernon Wells--Not sure, but not many...
Jim Thome--In the teens
Paul Konerko--about 20 or so
Jason Bay--In the teens
Andrew Jones--Lower than normal
Chipper Jones--Lower than normal
Nomar Garciaparra--4 HR
Bobby Abreu--11 HR


Some guys like Fielder and Howard are clobbering the ball, but it seems like so many guys are just way down this year. Guys that routinely hit 40+ are going to end up in the 20's.

Steroids? Looser woven ball???

Answer 1

It's totally apparent. Thanks for listing the numbers on some of the guys. I actually heard the stat last week...the league is some 350 home runs behind the pace they were at this time LAST year. Amazing.

I'm not 100% sure what the deal is. But do you think any of those guys were steroid guys in the past? Garciaparra is the only that makes me wonder, and he was just a great all-around hitter, so I doubt it.

At the same time, a lot of these guys-- Ortiz, Manny, Pujols, Thome, Chipper...they're having solid seasons, just not replicating the power they've hit for in the past. Kind of strange, no?

Quite honestly, I think it's a coincidence more than anything. At this rate, only 3 guys will reach 40 homers-- A-Rod, Fielder, Howard and MAYBE Morneau. Ortiz and Pujols will go on a run (Pujols should end up in the high 30's like he was his first couple seasons), but I wonder if Manny's power may have slipped, and the same for Thome, Abreu, Nomar, and Chipper.

Wells, Konerko, and Bay all signed long-term contracts within the last 2 years, so that might explain their "off" seasons.

So that leaves Andruw Jones who's inexplicably having a very down season in a contract year. Has anyone ever really been that blown away by him as a hitter though? I kind of thought the last couple seasons were more of an aberration. I'm not shocked at all to see him stumble on his feet this year, especially when considering his rumored lackadaisical work ethic.

Interesting point though. We'll just have to see how the rest of the season plays out.

Answer 2

Your point is correct, but your examples are a bit misplaced. To judge whether homers are down, you need to look at overall numbers, not particular players.
For every Thome or Hafner there is a Prince Fielder or Jimmy Rollins whose numbers are way up. Injuries can explain several on your list as well, including Ortiz and Chipper at least.

That being said, homers have been decreasing a bit over the last few years, and steriod testing is likely a big factor.

Where the real difference lies isn't in the slightler lesser numbers of a Pujols or Ramirez, it is the return to appropriate numbers for guys like Louis Gonzalez, the Giles brothers, Klesko, etc.

Where power numbers have really dropped are in the traditionally more weak spots in the batting order, such as 2, 6, 7, etc.

Now that testing is in place, there are less steroids and less big power numbers from these other spots in the order. That has a "trickle down" effect on the real big boppers like Pujols, since they can be pitched around more easily with less fear of guys around them taking them deep. Thus, their numbers drop a bit as well.

Another possible factor is an overall slight change in hitting philosophy. When you have a lineup full of bashers, you can afford to swing more freely for the fences instead of trying to play small-ball. Now that there are fewer bashers, teams are more inclined to manufacture runs and take the bat out of the hands of certain hitters they may have let swing away in years past.

Answer 3

Power numbers are in fact down this season, and my guess is that the biggest reason for that is the new steroids testing that has been going on.

I also think that injuries have something to do with it. Teixeira, Ortiz, Howard, Chipper have all had injury problems they've been dealing with, 3 of them even going on the DL. Other players just aren't playing as well, Andruw Jones is a career .270 hitter that is currently hitting about .215, so the fact that he just isn't making contact as much as he has in the past could very well be the reason he isn't hitting home runs. The same can be said about Manny, Bay, Wells, and a lot of others.

I think the biggest reason home runs have been down is that pitching has been better this year than in the past.

Answer 4

Yeah it's not the same but with the numbers that these superstars are putting up then they are really going to start questioning A-rod for steroids with his numbers being so far away from most others. Its sad though because we all know that Alex doesn't do steroids. Its just the way its going to be.

Answer 5

coincidentally they stepped up steroid testing this year... hmmm. ya know bonds wasnt the only one that took them, he just happens to be the poster boy for the steroid age. they dont have to be huge to be using. its really sad that so many of these guys use(d) when i was growing up (the eighties)there were so many good actual honest to goodness great players. now i feel the sport has been tainted.

Answer 6

actually chipper is about average for what he ahs done last 3 or 4 years but yes last few seaosns homeruns have been down they have started testing more for steroids guys have come off them

Answer 7

Yes, there has been decline. 3270 home runs have ben hit this year. There were 5386 home runs last year, but just 5017 in 2005.

Answer 8

Yes it does seem that way, but then check out Barry Bonds.
Whoo WhoOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Answer 9

the makers of steriods have definately noticed the drop.

Answer 10

you are right and dont forget Magglio Ordoñez that he started burning up but his declining lately.