Should I do this Fantasy Football TRADE?

Question

In a 1pt per reception&completion/ 6pt per touchdown league.

NOTE: I have QB Peyton Manning


I give:

WR Marvin Harrison
WR: Hines Ward
RB Marion Barber III

I get:

WR Steve Smith
WR Reggie Wayne


Need good insight please, along with opinions.

Answer 1

So far you have a lot of mixed answers. Let me clear it up for you.

First off you should know that Holmes is hurting Hines's fantasy value. I know you've heard everyone's opinion so I'm going to give you stats. In the last 10 games of '06, Hines scored 1 TD. He was injured for 2 games, but still only had 1 TD in the other 8. He also only got over 100 once in that span of games.

I also did some research over the last 3 years of each player (Smith was hurt in 04 so I pulled '06, '05 and '03...which was before his prime) and the stats show that Wayne/Smith is better than Harrison/Ward. Wayne/Smith combined for more receptions by 13 per season. They also averaged 288 more yards per season. Harrison/Ward did score 3 more TDs per season, but that is mainly due to Steve Smith. Smith missed the first two games of last year (remember that) and scored 8 TDs. In '03, before they were a passing team, he only scored 7. Wayne was never under 1,000 yards and Smith was never under 1,100 yards.

Some more trend that I saw were that Hines never got over 1000 yards a season and never had more than 74 receptions and you can be sure he won't this year. Hines's TD was 6, 11, and 6 in the last 3 years. The 11 was the super bowl year and I would bet that Bettis and Randle El threw a couple of those (they don't have the guys/coach to do trick plays anymore). Ward is a 3rd tier wide receiver in fantasy and will have a similar season as last year (975 and 6 TDs).

Wayne has averaged only 16 less yards per year than Harrison (showing that Peyton has no favorites). His TDs do vary from year to year (12, 5, 9), but are much higher than Wards.

Steve Smith is the only one of the 4 to catch over 100 balls in a season ('05) and he caught 83 in 14 games last year. He is the only player to be the only star on one team and has been able to get open despite all the attention (except against the Seattle in the playoffs of '05). He has had the most upside of any of them and has recorded 1563 yards in a season with 12 TDs (in '05...Harrison highs were 1366 yards in '06 and 15 TDs in '04).

My point in this analysis was to show that although Harrison is more consistent, that Smith and Wayne, barring injury, will do better than Harrison and Ward.

I haven't mentioned Barber yet, but I'm guessing that you have someone to play or else this wouldn't even be an option. Barber's trade value is high right now and there are plenty of questions in the Dallas running game right now because of the new coach. Dallas has made it clear that J. Jones is their starter and may even give Barber less opportunities than last year. Since when do goal line backs that score more than 10 TDs one season, repeat it the next? Especially with a new coach (who isn't that good...I'm a Bronco fan and Wade Phillips is the only coach that could go under .500 with John Elway in his prime. Shanahan took the same team and went 13-3, 12-4, and 14-2 in the 3 years after Wade...Shanny has had 1 losing season and that was in '99, so don't count on Phillips being the savior of Dallas). For more on what experts think about Barber go to http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=Ajh.1aw3khcppcefp6LrLeT.uLYF?slug=ap-fantasyfootball&prov=ap&type=lgns.

Again, take the trade. Smith has a slight edge on Harrison and Wayne will do way better than Ward and Barber. Plus you can start someone in the place that you would have started Barber which means you will get even more points then starting the 3 you have now (assuming you have a reasonable guy to plug in).

Answer 2

It depends on your other RBs and how many WRs and RBs do you have to start every week..

Wayne and harrison are about the same and will get close numbers.. So, they cancel each other out for the most part

Smith and Ward.. Its a no brainner.. Smith is a lot better WR than Ward in fantasy numbers.. But, Pitt has a new head coach so it might become a throwing offesive more than a running offesive in Pitt.. So thats a big ?
Smith has a QB issue with Delhomme and Carr and last year he had a hamstring injury most of the year.. So, be careful..

Barber is an 3rd down back and sometime goalline back.. He isnt really worth a lot in fantasy numbers unless your in a 12 or more man league.. Or if you have to start 2 Rbs every week.. Another thing.. I heard that Dallas is looking to trade for Larry Johnson.. If this trade goes threw.. Barber or Jones might end up on the Chiefs but, no matter what happens.. If Larry Jonhson goes to Dallas.. The other RBs will be getting nothing in caries esp. goaline..

So, I would take the trade if you have any other RBs on your team...

Good luck either way

Answer 3

no, you are giving away 2 No. 1 WRs and a decent end-zone threat RB for a No. 2 and a No. 1 WR. You didn't say what your RB situation was like, but to be considering it, it must be aight. however, MB 3 is just one candy-bone away from being a viable starting fantasy back.
However, for the core of your trade, I do Believe the Marvin and Hines will do better in a points per reception league than Steve Smith and Reggie Wayne. because Narv and Hines are possesion guys who are clutch recievers that they want to get the ball to around 10 times a game, the others are deep threat big play guys who don't see the number of looks thet the others do.

Answer 4

I love this trade. Wayne & Harrison are a wash since theyll both get approx 85-100 receps. & 8-12 TD's, considering there's so many weapons in their offense the defenses are always distracted.

So Steve Smith for Hines & Barber the 3rd? As long as you have good starting RB depth, then heck yes. Barber is a split time RB, and there's no guarantee the yardage/TD split in Dallas will match how it unfolded last season, i certainly wouldnt BANK on it. And Ward/Roethlisberger, as 1/2 of Pitts offense, haven't been looking too good since their SB win. They're going to target Santonio Holmes at WR, and if they're smart, keep the ball on the ground w/ Parker.

Steve Smith on the other hand didn't start or play in 2 games last season, and Delhomme was hurt a considerable amount of time as well, and he still put up numbers. When CAR's QB situation is healthy, look out. Smith is better than the rest.

I'd do it. EZ

Goodluck!

Answer 5

This is what it sounds like. Your giving up Barber for nothing. That's what it is.

Harrison and Smith are pretty much a straight up trade with in any league and will cancel each other out pretty much throughout the season. Ward and Wayne will have similar years, with Wayne probably having the best year of the 2. Ward is the number 1 and only receiver in Pitt and with Roesthisburger coming back to 100% he should see a bigger part in the offense this year.

So that leaves Barber. He seems like its just the adding part to the trade to make sure he takes it for Smith and Wayne. Its a fair trade for the most part. You are just exchanging top receivers on teams.

I might try and trade Ward and Barber for Smith/Wayne. You don't want to give up Harrison for Wayne though in anyway. Harrison is the number 1 in that system and will get the majority of the passes/catches. Try and just get Smith without giving up Harrison.

Good luck!!

Answer 6

No.
Marvin Harrison and Steve Smith are = and Harrison has proven he can stay healthy, Smith has not.

Wayne plays in a better offense, and has a better chance to put up better #'s but Ward is the undisputed #1 receiver in Pittsburgh.

Marion Barber is Dallas's goal-line back.

So what do you get ? You give up Harrison to get Wayne to go w/ Manning, You give up Ward to get Steve Smith (not bad) but..........you lose a guy in Barber who will probably get 10 TD's this year.

Let's say Harrison gets 1300 yds and 10 TDs (about average for him) and Ward gets 1000 yds and 7 TDs (again, about average) so now you have 2300 yds and 17 TDs
Add Barber for 500yds and 10 Tds so we're at
2800yds and 28 TDs

I doubt Wayne and Smith will collectively put up 2800yds and 28 TDs

Answer 7

Tough one but not that tough. Do you want to stay close or breakout. First, Harrison for Reggie is a toss up but Peyton always looks for Marvin first when in trouble. Hines had an off year, they don't get much tougher than him and Delhomme is having trouble. I'm a Cowboy fan and can tell you, Barber is better than Jones and can take a lick. With Jones down you'll check out. 3 for 2 anyday when like this

Answer 8

Yo for real that trade is TERRIBLE. You would get shafted through the ***. Smith didnt produce nearly as much as he should have and Wayne is nothing compared to what Harrison will do! Decline that faster than you can say screwed over dude. Seriously.

Answer 9

Don't do it! Smith isn't much better than Harrison and you shouldn't give a WR and a RB for just a WR.

Answer 10

Dumping hines ward would be smart, but you're asking too much for smith.