what will happen when the u. s. leaves iraq?

Answer 1

That depends entirely on the circumstances. If we just say that its, "time to go" and takeoff, there will likely be a drawn-out civil war with international intervention. Iran wants stability but will back the Shi'ites. Most Arab countries are Sunni so it can be expected that Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and the North African states will back the Sunnis. Turkey will most likely invade and occupy the Kurd-run areas. This is the sort of scenario that leads to a large-scale regional war, severe interruption of oil supplies, severe western economic problems, and intervention. In the chaos, it is likely that an Islamic dictatorship would rule parts of the area. Basically, we'd be back and it would be a lot worse then it is now.

If we stayed but allowed the civil war to be fought but only getting involved versus the most radical Islamacists, eventually either one faction would rule via a dictator or there would no longer be an Iraq. This option would probably be the easiest to accomplish. Turkey and Iran are both against this, however, since an independent Kurdistan would cause them both severe domestic problems.

The third would involve continuing as we are and leaving when Iraq is ready. By far this is the best long-term option but it is a political impossibility in the USA. It would most likely involve counterinsurgency operations for 10-20 years but the end result would be a stable Iraqi republic that would show the people of the region that other options are out there then terrorism to get their way.

The reason the USA is fighting in Iraq is to promote stability in the region so as to deflect it being a cause for a world-scale war centered on the civilization-ending threat of radical Islam. That (at least in the short term) has obviously not happened.

Answer 2

Depends on when we leave.

If we leave before a stable government is established and many of the infrastructure issues are not dealt with then in all likelihood Iraq will dissolve into a random grouping of regions run by warlords as was the case with Somalia.

If, however, Hillary Clinton is not elected and we stay in Iraq long enough then they could very well become the leading democracys in the Middle East. Iraq is blessed with an extremely strong middle class and it's always the middle class that builds pretty much anything.

Remember, the US maintained control of Germany for 6 years after the Nazi party surrendered and Japan for 7 years. Both of these nations were composed of a homogenous people with a fierce sense of national pride. Iraq is composed of the vastly different ethic groups (Kurds, Sunni and Shiite) with each group pretty much hating the other.

Also, we have to deal with the fact that many Islamic Fundamentalists are pouring into Iraq in the hopes of destabilizing the fledgling democracy in the hopes of creating a "true" Islamic state run wholly on Sharia law.

That would be a bad thing.

As for those tools who believe that "Iraq will be peaceful" and that "Iraqis will stop killing American soldiers", well, those folks you need to take out for an enjoyable afternoon of electroshock therapy.

Iraq was not "peaceful" prior to our liberating them and they probably won't be peaceful any time soon. As for them no longer killing our soldiers, Iraqis have been part of some of the worst attacks on our soldiers and enterprises prior to our removing Saddam. I'm speaking of Iraqi nationals who were responsible for certain attacks and not the government itself.

Ramzi Yousef, mastermind of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing entered the US with an Iraqi passport. Yousef was assisted in the bombing by Iraqi bomb maker Abdul Rahman Yasi.

Answer 3

Iraq will live in peace... Really? They have never lived in peace in their entire history. The same can be said for their neighbors. Just take a look at Middle East history. If the political situation is not stable enough, and the police/military forces are not strong enough and trained sufficiently enough, the terrorist insurgency will gain more and more control over the population through a campaign of death and fear. Anyone that showed any degree of support for the current situation will be killed along with their entire families. Just look back to what happened when we pulled out of Viet Nam. You can also figure that Iran, Syria and other more radical regimes will be more than happy to send in as many folks as possible to destabilize the region as much as possible. Even if we get out now, this thing is not going to go away. Sooner or later the region will have to be dealt with. I'd like to think that everybody will love us now that we have the great appeaser in office. But somehow I doubt it.

Answer 4

A General just testified in congress today that it would take perhaps 3-4 years to "leave Iraq" if we decided to.

When most people think that leaving Iraq would happen quickly, the reality is that even if we wanted to, it would happen very slowly. So if we decide to eventually draw down and leave a presence, it will likely happen very slowly (5 years).

Things happens slowly. Especially big changes like those in Iraq. Americans are disconnected from reality when it comes to how long things like this take and how long complex military missions take. Too much TV and instant gratification I guess.

Answer 5

The people that want withdrawal for the sake of being able to politically exploit the chaos that will result, are defined as the extreme liberals, like the Dixie Chicks and Michael Moore. Liberals who really want what's best for the USA will not call out the extremists; much like Muslims who say nothing about Muslim terrorists- your silence is deafening!

Answer 6

Do you really think that we'll leave?

If we leave, there will be a huge vacuum in Iraq. Terrorists, along the order of the Taliban, will take power while the Sunnis and Shias are busy killing each other.

Answer 7

two words: Chaos and pandemonium. however, who are we kidding?? The US leaving Iraq is as good as Michael Jackson coming out of the closet or Scientology being named the biggest working scam of the 21st century.

Answer 8

the democrats will act like they made a good choice and then hide under a rock and try to forget that the middle east wants us wiped off the face of the earth (and they'll stop at nothing to accomplish it) and we might as well just forget it, because we have no choice but to stay and fight.

Answer 9

The same thing that happened before we went there.

Terrorists aren't going anywhere.....we have to be diligent like what happened recently in England.

Answer 10

Most likely civil war will ensue and things will go back to business as usual. Call me a cynic.