Are polls honest?

Question

We hear that according to polls - - - . How does anyone know the information being given is true? Can't anyone go on TV, the radio, news, or whatever and say according to a poll - - - -? Even if the poll is taken how does anyone know the figures are not manipulated before they are published? We have learned we can not trust the highest office in the country, why should we believe polls taken by someone we don't know and was probably tallied by finger counters.

Answer 1

Well, it depends on the poll. The professionals try to write good questions, and then survey a scientifically based group to get the results. I don't need to flip a coin 10,000 times to figure out that heads will come up about 50 percent of the time. Same principle with results to polls.

With that out of the way, there are a number of polls that can come out inaccurately. First is the lack of control on votes. When espn.com does a survey on an issue, anyone can vote. That can skew the results. (Not to mention the fact that Internet users tend to skew right politically because of economics.)

Then there's the matter of the question. It can be written to push people in a certain direction. Candidates will commission a poll that the question says, "If you found out that Candidate Joe Mama punched his wife in the gut every Sunday morning, would it affect your vote?" The question doesn't say Joe does that, but says if. That's a big difference.

By the way, if poll numbers were getting changed by someone, I would bet the information would leak out ... and the polling company would be instantly out of business. The firm has a huge stake at producing accurate numbers. That's not to say monkey business can't happen -- and I don't really trust polls commissioned by political parties for all those reasons -- but most of the figures probably are trustworthy.

Answer 2

Some polls are taken deliberately to support some point. The best example I can think of is when you see an ad for something that says '80% of doctors agree . . . '. There are also informal call-in polls like on CNN or polls on Yahoo, that don't really mean much.

But a lot of people in both business and politics really -depend- on polls! Their whole success or failure depends on how well they understand what people want. A whole science has sprung up around polling, getting the true feelings of the American people (or some subgroup) quickly and economically.

If you're a big company like Proctor and Gamble it could cost tens of millions of dollars to release a new product, and this is a gamble! So you will spend as much as hundreds of thousands to see how people feel about it before you commit all that money.

If you're a political party you desperately want to know what positions to take to appeal to certain demographics. Politicians always lie about this--for instance Republicans insisting that most Americans are pro-life or that most Americans support the war. But they really do want to know what people think and it counts for a lot in their strategy.

Answer 3

There are lies, damned lies and then there are statistics. Polls are always statistically based and open to interpretation. The best guide is the reliability of the source and the sampling, and then a good deal of common sense. Right now Bush is well bellow bottom in many polls, yet still has a faithful following among those who will hear no wrong, or fear that anything else might be worse. Look at the polls, examine the evidence and make your own judgement. But time has run out for those who've already died.

Answer 4

I sense that they are often constructed, conducted and presented with an ulterior motive. They have a built-in margin of error and can be tremendously swayed just by the wording of the question at hand. The website below will give you some examples of how one political race can appear very different depending on whose poll data you receive, and whose you believe. Stay alert and always think for yourself!

Answer 5

Good question...Personally I look at "polls" with a cynical eye. I sense that they are often constructed, conducted and presented with an ulterior motive. They have a built-in margin of error and can be tremendously swayed just by the wording of the question at hand. The website below will give you some examples of how one political race can appear very different depending on whose poll data you receive, and whose you believe. Stay alert and always think for yourself!

Answer 6

Not always