Why did Truman win the presidential election of 1948? Why was his victory considered a major upset?

Answer 1

First, as to why the election of Truman was considered such an upset.

The Democrat Party split three ways with Strom Thurmond leading segregationist Southern Democrats into the State's Rights Party camp and Henry Wallace (vice president under FDR) leading the communists and socialists into the Progressive Party. The FDR coalition which had spanned the political map from rabid racists to outright communists clearly had sundered.

The Republicans were thought to be united (despite a contentious convention) and the nominee, contrary to what has been said, was the extremely attractive and capable Thomas Dewey, a legendary crime fighting prosecutor and the able and popular governor of New York. He was, however, the leader of the Liberal wing of the Republican Party and, as such, was the opponent of Robert Taft of Ohio, leader of the conservative wing.

Observers were sure that Truman, deprived of both his right and left wings had no chance. Polls seemed to indicate that his popularity was sinking with each passing day and, while Truman is often extolled these days, at the time people had a more sanguine view of him. He had been chosen for VP only because Henry Wallace had already begum to demonstrate his far left streak and a substitute had to be found. Truman, the stooge of the Pendergast Machine in Missouri, was seen as a pliable and safe choice that would cement FDR's connection to Pendergast and make no trouble. As vice president he had simply been ignored by FDR and was regarded as something of a rube and a moron.

All in all, Dewey seemed a shoo in.

So how did Truman win?

Well, to begin with, Dewey ran an terrible campaign. Assured of victory and fearful of throwing it away by being too aggressive (something he had been criticized for in his 1944 campaign for the President) barely campaigned and when he did it was to give speeches that were so surpassingly bland and inoffensive that they consisted of almost nothing but idiotic platitudes. (one famous one "your future is still ahead of you.")

Second, Dewey was a rather courtly gentleman while Truman was a gutter campaigner. Truman made outrageous claims that Dewey was a fascist sympathizer, an extraordinary assertion given that Dewey, as Governor of New York, had put through the first state law in the country which prohibited racial discrimination in employment.

(NB: "the little man on the wedding cake" remark came not from a fellow republican as was stated above but from Alice Roosevelt Longworth. Longworth's politics were indescribable and tho she was the daughter of Republican President Theodore Roosevelt and married to a Republican congressman she had no real politics. She was a registered Democrat by the 1960's but described herself politically as "a hedonist")

(NB: Thomas Dewey was actually quite well liked by those who knew him and generally well respected even by those who disagreed with him.)

Third, Henry Wallace's campaign did not succeed in drawing off as many liberal votes as had been expected. The endorsement of the Communist Party hurt him badly and he drew only 2.5% of the vote. Norman Thomas, Socialist leader, abandoned Wallace because of the Communist influence in his campaign.

Thurmond and the Dixiecrats fared somewhat better than Wallace but still carried only four states and had no impact outside the Deep South.

(NB: I discussed the 1948 election with Strom Thurmond over dinner one night. He conceded that he had never expected to win an electoral victory but had hoped to carry enough states to throw the election in the House of Representatives)

Fourth, the Democrats had used FDR's presidency to build a party organization based on the power of local Democrat leaders to reward voters with government money. As gatekeepers of Federal largesse they controlled large segments of the urban population thru a system of graft and corruption.

Fifth, the returning GI's were accustomed to supporting the president. My father, himself a returning GI at that time, said "Truman was a pipsqueak but when you heard the band play 'Hail to the Chief' then you knew that your commander and chief was speaking and you listened."

Sixth, as I said, Dewey was the leader of the liberal wing of the Republican party and, as such, was the enemy of Robert Taft of Ohio, leader of the conservative wing. As has already been said, Ohio was a crucial state in the election. Dewey's loss of Ohio is directly attributable to the enmity of Taft. Indeed, Dewey was arguably more liberal than Truman and his liberal positions effectively split the Republicans as badly as the open split of the Democrats hurt Truman.

In the end, Truman won a very narrow victory. A switch of less than 1% of the vote in the three swing states of Ohio, California, and Illinois would have given the victory to Dewey.

Answer 2

Harry S Truman's 1948 Victory was a True Miracle. Truman had no expectation of victory. Americans were tired of sixteen years of Democrat rule since in their hearts & souls a majority of Americans have always (since 1860) been Republicans.
Harry won as he won everything else in his life. Sheer stubborness. Harry was from Missouri go ask a Missourian. Harry was challenged by a p ssy shrill New Yorke named Thomas Dewey. Even Dewey's friends didn't like Dewey. A leading Republican described Dewey as the Man on the top of the Wedding Cake, Due to his reputation as a Crime Buster, and disunity among Republicans, Thomas Dewey finagled the Republican Nomination in 1844. He lost the election to a dying man, FDR and an unknown, Harry S Truman
Tom Dewey was again nominated in 1948 to carry the Republican Standard into battle against Preseident Truman and an ancient but colorful Kentucky Senator named Alvin Barkley. Dewey felt confient Actually Dewey was over confident.
One reason why Dewey was confident was that a huge chunk of 'loyal' Democrats bolted over the issue of Civil Rights and formed a Dixiecrat Party.
Again Truman's victory was a miracle. He won because the more that Dewey campaigned the more People grew to dislike him. The more that Harry campaigned the more that People grew to like him. Another factor in winning elections is having a solid organization in each state not just to get the voters to the polls but to prevent chicanery by the opposittion. Here the Democrats had an advantage. Sixteen years in power meant they held key positions in voting districts and were geared up for a fight. The Republicans were / are good at 'in fighting,' territorial tussles, etc and so in several key states because Dewey was not a 'dood diplomat,' the people on the ground failed to do what was expected what was needed, including skullduggery etc, ell expected 'then' (nowadays elections are 'clean' lol). Elections are truly a numbers game and if Dewey had carried Ohio (sound familiar) he won have won. But Harry Won. Sometimes stubborness wins. And often if you are a 'Dewey' and want to be President - - - shut up, let someone else speak for you.

Good luck ---

Pax-----------------------------

(short answer // the Democrats were better organized and the Republicans over confident)

Answer 3

1948 Presidential Election

Answer 4

Election Of 1948

Answer 5

I can answer the second part. It's because everyone thought Dewey was going to win. Newspapers were printed the night before, "Dewey Wins!" When the votes were counted, they realized Truman won.

Answer 6

Hurrah, that's what I was searching for! Thanks to author of this question.