Drake equation?

Question

Is the Drake equation actually a reasonable prediction for life outside of earth? Ive heard that a lot of the variables can not be determined accurately
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Answer 1

As far as I understand none of them can. The Drake Equation is more of a declaration of what we would have to know in order to accurately predict the likelihood of intelligent extraterrstrial life. Any number plugged in there is just a guess.

Answer 2

It depends on what you mean by reasonable. If you want an accurate, reliable prediction--no. But then, Drake never claimed it was.

What Drake did was show how to go about making an ecucated guess (not aprediction) about how common habitable planets or alien civilizations might be.

The idea is pretty straightforward: the equation is simply a list of all the factors scientists thought were important (stellar radiation, planetary size, etc.)--along with the best estimates of what the probability of each was.

That was decades ago-an up-to-date version would have many of the values changed, and even some different variables. And--as you say, we don't have any reliable figures for some--though we do have much better figures now for others.

It's really just an organized way tothink about this topic. And from that standpoint, yes, a very reasonable one-as long as you remember that's all it is.

Answer 3

The Drake equation was a probability formula based on best info at the time.

This equation was devised by Dr Frank Drake (now Emeritus Professor of Astronomy and Astrophysics at the University of California, Santa Cruz) in the 1960s ( I say again, THE 1906's -- that's quite awhile ago) in an attempt to estimate the number of extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy with which we might come in contact. The main purpose of the equation is to allow scientists to quantify the uncertainty of the factors which determine the number of extraterrestrial civilizations.

The Drake equation is closely related to the Fermi paradox.

Start with a look-up in Wikipedia.

Answer 4

It follows some good judgment, some ordinary, some complicated, that's a classic approach of doing technology. the challenge with the Drake equation is that countless factors are inevitably assumptions because of the fact we've no way yet of understanding the appropriate numbers to plug in, such because of the fact the proportion of planets with life that strengthen sensible life, and how long that takes. in spite of the shown fact that, progression has been made considering that Frank Drake first proposed the equation almost 40 years in the past. We now comprehend that the proportion of stars with planets is somewhat intense, a minimum of 70%. Drake had to make a wager, and assumed purely 10%. while the Kuiper and Planet Finder missions are finished in six or seven years, we could desire to continually have a much extra advantageous thought of what the style of Earth-like planets is, and could even have pointed out some planets that could desire to have life because of the fact they have oxygen of their atmospheres, or for different motives. (O2 is so reactive that without vegetation restoring it consistently, our contemporary 21% might drop decrease than 10% in decrease than 2000 years.) this might go away the time to strengthen intelligence, whether sensible life develops technologies, and how long a technological civilization can proceed to exist because of the fact the relax unknowns. in case you have a extra advantageous wisdom of ways information artwork and how scientists strengthen hypotheses, you does no longer have such doubts with regard to the Drake equation--yet there are conceivable factors he skipped over, so the equation can validly be attacked on those grounds.

Answer 5

just about every variable in the Drake Equation is a guess-timate. How many stars are there in our galaxy? Well, even with diligent mapping we still do not have a precise count, just a decent guess-timate. How many of those stars have planets? Again a guess-timate. How many of those planets support what we would label "life"? get my point. Yes, all these guess-timates are educated guesses, but they are still guesses.
As soon as the Pan-galactic Census Bureau comes around and starts surveying our planet, we are not allowed to be privy to the numbers needed to change the equation's variables into definite values. Like any government bureaucracy, they're working on it and have got committees set up and all, but it's still a government bureaucracy just on a galactic scale :P

Answer 6

(rarely also called the Green Bank equation or the Sagan equation) is a famous result in the speculative fields of exobiology, astrosociobiology and the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.

This equation was devised by Dr Frank Drake (now Emeritus Professor of Astronomy and Astrophysics at the University of California, Santa Cruz) in the 1960s in an attempt to estimate the number of extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy with which we might come in contact. The main purpose of the equation is to allow scientists to quantify the uncertainty of the factors which determine the number of extraterrestrial civilizations.

The Drake equation is closely related to the Fermi paradox.

The Drake equation states that:

N = R* • fp • ne • fl • fi • fc • L

where:

N is the number of civilizations in our galaxy, with which we might hope to be able to communicate;

and

R* is the average rate of star formation in our galaxy
fp is the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne is the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
fl is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point
fi is the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life
fc is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L is the length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.

It's rather typical of Drake, an astronomer, to have phrased the equation in terms of the parameter R* (a variable of interest to astrophysicists, but not easily observable). The number of stars in the galaxy, N^* = \int_0^{T_g} R^*(t) dt . Assuming for simplicity that R* is constant, then the Drake equation can be rewritten into an alternate form phrased in terms of the more easily observable value, N* [1]:

N = N* • fp • ne • fl • fi • fc • L/Tg

where

N* is the number of stars in the galaxy
Tg is the age of the galaxy

Answer 7

The Drake equation is a perfect prediction of the number of intelligent civilizations in the galaxy. However, every single term is a total shot in the dark, so it is not a particularly practical equation.

As far as I can tell, its purpose is to make people feel optimistic about the possibility of life elsewhere in the galaxy. Most people fill in the numbers and end up with something like a million intelligent civilizations.

Answer 8

In the Drake equation, the variables can have any value that YOU wish them to have. If you want to make the result very small, simply use "1" whenever there is no absolute value to use. Want a larger result? Use larger numbers. It is up to the individual to put as much or as little belief into the equation!

Answer 9

It is no more than an educated guess but it looks fairly reasonable.

Answer 10

It's only one person's guess. as good as anyone else's guess.