Being as objective as possible what chance do republicans have of winning the upcoming presidential election?

Answer 1

Honestly I'd give them about a 39% chance, there is always going to be a certain group of partisans who will vote the ticket no matter what and another group is always waiting to have more wool pulled over their eyes so that's about right I think, it still means a Dem whitehouse in '08 barring any major screw ups from the party

Answer 2

I really don't think they have much. But not necessarily for the reasons that many folks might think.

If you look back through history, the political pendulum is constantly swinging. Once a party becomes well entrenched they tend to get greedy. When they get greedy, they get careless and then the crap hits the fan. The electorate (that's us) get peeved and toss the bums out, usually swinging the pendulum the other way.

Had we not gone through 9/11, Iraq, and Katrina I'd probably give the Republican party about a 50-50 shot in '08. The Bush administration still would have failed on its key issues of Social Security and immigration reform, IMHO even absent the deviciveness that the war has triggered. And the election would still be wide open, i.e. no President or VP vying for the nomination, as Cheney could never get the nod due to his health.

Now, add in everything that has happend over the past few years, with Iraq in particular, and we see Republican hopefulls virtually scrambling to get out of the Bush shadow out of fear for their political lives.

Given that the pendulum has started its swing back to the left, albeit a bit early, the opposition now has momentum on their side. Add to that the lack of a clear front-runner from the Republican party (OK, yes, it still is very early yet) their chances are looking dimmer every day.

This is clearly emboldening the Democratic party, so much so that their front-runners are both people who 4 years ago would have been considered unelectable to the Office of President. Of course this could backfire but with the pendulum swinging ever farther and faster towards the left, it would take a MAJOR gaffe from both of their current possible nominees for that to change.

I don't see a landslide on Election Day, 2008 but I do see nearly a 100% certainty of a Democrat in the White House in January, 2009 and a "first ever" situation for the US as well as some modest gains in Congress, certainly enough that the party will have full control of the government for the first time in quite some time. What they do with that control remains to be seen, of course.

Answer 3

well, lets see. It's 2007, and your talking about an election 1 1/2 years in the future. Isn't that a bit sad?

What will your candidates be running on? Will they be trying to turn our country into a socialist society? Most of the country is not for that.

Look at congress. They have a lower approval rating than the president, and the democrats have controlled it for 6 months, and done nothing but play politics. Do you really think that will help them much? Even the democrats that took control, were conservative democrats, they were not many new far left wing wacko's that were elected.

I'd say in a year and a half, the country will see what people like nancy pelosi, and harry reid are trying to do to this nation, and common sense will prevail and elect a republican.

Answer 4

As I see it: three ways it can go.

It can keep devolving like it is; Iraq not getting better, Bush sliding and sliding in the polls. Then it would take some dazzling election thievery for republicans to win.

The war could be 'won' and the troops brought home (leaving behind a country in civil war even though we 'won') and the American public will be coaxed on to more 'important' issues, like gay marriage or some such mind numbingly stupid non-issue. Then the Republicans win.

There could be a major attack directed at us before the election. At that point, no elections... or if they happen it will just be a dog and pony show and the little emperor will be 'forced to stay in office' to deal with the martial law state that transpires.

I lean toward two or three. These guys do not like to lose, and they have revealed they will do almost anything to keep the grail.

Answer 5

1 in 2.

Answer 6

I'd certainly say that the chances are worse than evel (i.e., less than 50%). At this point, the Democrats could run a dead person and win.

Another answerer said that if Bush wins the war in Iraq and brings the troops home, the Republicans have a chance. Sure, if he can win the war in Iraq, he can probably also turn water into wine, pigs will start flying, and it will start snowing in Hell.

Answer 7

the chances are good,the problem here is that democrats actually think they were elected by the majority of Americans in the 2006 elections,what they fail to realize is that the republican voters stayed home to teach them a lesson,but in the 2008 elections they will return,and elect a republican pres.,and remove several republicans now in office showing no back bone!

Answer 8

Zero if Rudy or McCain get the nomination. Most Conservative Republicans wouldn't bother to vote with those choices on the ballot. Hillary would win the same way her hubby did - by a plurality rather than a majority. However, if Fred Thompson gets the nomination, it would energize the GOP base and I expect he'd beat Hillary six ways to Sunday.

Answer 9

Polls say that the same number of people say they would never under any circumstances vote for Hillary as those that say they would. The Repubs stand a good chance if she gets the nomination. She is a divider pure and simple. independents are looking for someone to accept them and unite the country, and those are the people that decide elections.

Answer 10

A republican has a very good chance at winning. I think any thing is possible since Bush got re-elected.

Answer 11

Zero.

That's because McCain's campaign is in the crapper, and Guliani's recent comments on the terror bombings in England just shows that he wants to continue the same 'fear and smear' campaign which has been a thorn in the backsides of all law-abiding Americans.

He doesn't offer ANYTHING which would be an attractive and productive change for America. Just wants more of the same.

As for the rest of the candidates...

I wouldn't get too excited over them. They are so all over the place--none of them really know who is coming or going.

Or what today's message is.