what the temperature will be 5 days from now? and if it will rain or be sunny or be cloudy? I know that they arent always exactly right on their predictions but....still.
2007-07-11 06:19:10 · 8 answers · asked by googleywoogley 1 in Science & Mathematics ➔ Weather
If you live in a place where the weather changes regularly (some places it doesn't) then the main tool for forecasting five days ahead would be numerical weather prediction (NWP). This relies on very large, complicated computer programs that model the weather of the entire globe, using observations from all over as input. These programs require the largest, fastest, computers to run on, and still take hours to complete. Their skill has greatly improved over the last 20 years, it used to be that the best human forecasters were better than NWP, but that is no longer true in general, especially that far out. The output from the NWP programs is tailored to give temperatures for a particular area by the use of other computer programs, known as Model Output Statistics (MOS). If you live in a place where things don't change much, like the tropics, climatology may be the best forecaster of what the weather will be like in 5 days.
2007-07-11 06:52:29 · answer #1 · answered by pegminer 7 · 0⤊ 0⤋
Weathermen use models, which is a combination of the current state of the atmosphere, the climatology, and then flow pattern for the week. Basically they are looking at what is going on all around them and then extrapolating it out over the next week or so. Different patterns lead to different outcomes, and even the slightest change can alter the forecast, which is why sometimes they can be calling for rain 5 Monday, and when it gets to Sunday they are then calling for partly cloudy skies, and the rain already came.
Temperature has to do with what kind of air is going to be in their area and where it originates from, if the area is coming from Canada (it would be colder than average) and if it's coming from Mexico (it would be warmer than average).
2007-07-11 13:25:10 · answer #2 · answered by esvalpo 2 · 1⤊ 0⤋
Basically making educated guesses based on previous weather patterns, what the weather is normally like during this time of year, and satellite feeds where you can see that if a storm cloud is over this part of the country now, it will probably have moved over to here based on what we know about how they act.
2007-07-11 13:23:38 · answer #3 · answered by therealchuckbales 5 · 0⤊ 1⤋
They use satelites to predict the weather. They also had some training on predicting weather.
2007-07-11 13:30:29 · answer #4 · answered by ? 4 · 0⤊ 1⤋
THEY NO NOTHING!they said it would be sunny for next week all of a sudden they change it to thuderstorm.they are all sorry.
2007-07-11 17:24:13 · answer #5 · answered by Mi 3 · 0⤊ 0⤋
They predict what happens by reaserching it. They watch the sky and stuff, it is cool.
2007-07-11 15:05:58 · answer #6 · answered by ~Mir-Zombie~ 2 · 0⤊ 0⤋
Computer models, meteorological experience and knowledge, weather charts, etc.
Here is an example rationale as to how they decide their forecasts.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=LOT&product=AFD&issuedby=LOT&glossary=1
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_850_loop.html
2007-07-11 13:53:14 · answer #7 · answered by Anonymous · 0⤊ 0⤋
satelites
2007-07-11 15:29:00 · answer #8 · answered by >_> 4 · 0⤊ 0⤋