Is the conclusion true or false?

Question

Given the premises, the conclusion of each argument that
follows is it (a) true beyond a reasonable doubt, (b) probably true, or (c) possibly true or possibly false.
1. The annual rainfall in California’s north valley averages twenty-three inches. So the rainfall next year will be twenty-three inches.
2. You expect to get forty miles to the gallon in that? Why, that old wreck has a monster V8; besides, it’s fifty years old and needs an overhaul.
3. In three of the last four presidential races, the winner of the Iowa Republican primary has not captured the Republican nomination. Therefore, the winner of the next Iowa Republican primary will not capture the Republican nomination.
4. The number of cellular telephones has increased dramatically in each of the past few years. Therefore there will be even more of them in use this coming year.

Answer 1

look at the keywords... in 1, the keyword is "averages" - does average mean it is ALWAYS that way? In 2, the keywords are "fifty years old, monster V8"-- does being old make it bad, does monster V8 make it better? In 3, the keyword is "three out of the last four"-- does that encompass all of political history? 4, "increased dramatically" and "past few years"-- does that mean they're on a steady incline upwards?

Answer 2

1. C
2. C
3. C
4. B
# 1 No one has the exact science for rainfall
# 2 It could have been driven by the little old lady in Pasadena
# 3 Nominations and winners are never a certainty.....not even in a horse race
# 4 More people (population) more phones

Answer 3

I'd have to say that questions 1,2,3 would have to be answer (c) and question 4 would be answer (b)